105 of 107 Economists Expect Fed to Cut Rates 25 Basis Points on September 17: Reuters
(*105*) unanimous consensus amongst economists factors to a Fed fee minimize subsequent week, with Bitcoin positioning for a potential rally toward $140,000 as financial coverage shifts towards lodging.
A Reuters ballot found 105 of 107 economists count on a 25 basis-point discount on September 17, marking the primary easing for the reason that central financial institution paused its cycle in January.
Labor Market Weakness Drives Unanimous Rate Cut Consensus
The huge shift in the direction of a fee minimize comes after stalling job progress in August and sharp downward revisions erasing 900,000 jobs from the 12-month knowledge by way of March.
Markets have absolutely priced within the September minimize and now anticipate three reductions by year-end, in contrast to two simply weeks in the past.
Bitcoin surged above $116,000 following contemporary inflation knowledge that strengthened fee minimize expectations.
Producer Price Index unexpectedly declined 0.1% in August in opposition to forecasts for a 0.3% enhance, whereas Consumer Price Index confirmed headline inflation quickened however not sufficient to derail financial easing bets.
The softer wholesale inflation and labor market weak spot prompted the Fed to shift its focus from worth stability considerations to supporting financial progress.
Weekly jobless claims spiked to 263,000, the best since October 2021, whereas the unemployment fee holds at 4.3%.
Fed Pivot Triggers Bitcoin Rally Toward All-Time Highs
Bitcoin briefly touched $116,000 as buyers positioned forward of decisive Fed motion, with the cryptocurrency gaining momentum from institutional flows and technical breakouts.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $553 million in web inflows on September 11, marking the fourth consecutive day of good points as allocators search safety in opposition to forex debasement dangers.
Traders recognized a key MACD bullish crossover on Bitcoin’s chart, the primary since April’s low, traditionally previous main rallies.
BitBull noted related patterns drove 40% surges inside a month, reaching new highs as momentum indicators flipped constructive.
Technical evaluation reveals Bitcoin breaking out of a descending channel containing worth motion since mid-August.
US inflation stays at 2.9% as unemployment hits 263K highest since 2021, boosting Fed fee minimize odds to 84% for Bitcoin $140K rally.(*25*) #Bitcoinhttps://t.co/ivHxPu8hlP
— Cryptonews.com (@cryptonews) September 11, 2025
Two ascending triangle patterns emerged, with one accomplished triggering breakouts above channel resistance and a bigger triangle validating the bullish thesis towards $120,000 targets.
However, accumulator addresses holding 266,000 BTC reached file ranges at the same time as futures market dynamics sign warning.
Whale participation declined with smaller merchants driving quantity, whereas futures taker promote stress outpaced buys, creating bearish sentiment that would restrict upside momentum.
The Value Area High sits at $114,000, with sustained strikes above this stage doubtlessly pushing costs towards $117,600.
Conversely, failure to maintain $111,950 might speed up declines towards $107,250 because the market balances robust accumulation in opposition to fading speculative exercise.
Powell Pressure Mounts as Trump Demands Aggressive Easing
President Trump intensified criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding fast fee cuts whereas threatening main lawsuits over curiosity value insurance policies.
Trump posted on Wednesday, declaring “NO INFLATION!!! TOO LATE. MUST LOWER THE RATE, BIG, RIGHT NOW. POWELL IS A TOTAL DISASTER.”
The political stress coincides with Powell’s acknowledgment that employment dangers might outweigh inflation considerations.
Speaking at Jackson Hole, Powell hinted at quarter-point cuts as “extremely doubtless” whereas warning in opposition to assuming fast easing sequences, stressing coverage stays data-dependent.
In the Reuters report, (*107*) Stanley’s Michael Gapen advocated for measured 25-basis-point reductions, noting 4 months of labor demand slowdown proof.
“In brief, ignore the place inflation is at present and ease coverage to help the labor market. […] We suppose a 25bp fee minimize in September is extra doubtless than a bigger minimize,” he stated.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has additionally previously urged steeper 50-basis-point strikes after core CPI cooled to 3.1% yearly.
CME FedWatch exhibits 100% ease likelihood of September cuts, with main banks together with Barclays and Deutsche Bank revising forecasts for imminent easing.
Similarly, Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek expects a strong fourth-quarter performance for digital belongings if fee cuts materialize, citing improved liquidity and institutional adoption driving $1.5 billion change income.
As Trump intensifies his replacement threat against Powell, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that Trump’s Fed independence would create “very critical hazard” for international financial stability.
Powell’s time period expires in May, with alternative discussions intensifying amid political stress for financial lodging.
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