14 Prediction Market Bills and Counting Reveal Deep Divisions, Long Odds
More than 40 members of Congress on Monday urged federal regulators to handle potential insider buying and selling in prediction markets, warning that the platforms may enable authorities officers to revenue from nonpublic data.
The letter, signed by 42 representatives and despatched to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Office of Government Ethics, capped off a busy month on Capitol Hill that noticed 12 prediction market-related payments launched in March alone.
The proposals span a variety of approaches, from limiting buying and selling by public officers to banning sure sorts of contracts tied to sports activities, elections, and delicate authorities actions. The March measures convey the whole variety of payments this 12 months to 14, representing 11 distinct proposals, with some launched in each chambers. The surge displays a rising push in Washington that’s unfolding in parallel with the CFTC’s personal efforts to extra clearly outline what’s and isn’t permissible below present federal regulation.
Why Congress is zeroing in on prediction markets now
The legislative push comes as prediction market platforms have grown quickly in reputation, with rising buying and selling volumes, increasing consumer bases, and rising mainstream visibility drawing new consideration to the house. That progress has introduced prediction markets into the highlight, prompting scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers at each the federal and state ranges.
Recent headline-grabbing controversies round contracts tied to geopolitical developments, together with the rising reputation of sports event contracts, have raised questions on whether or not the merchandise resemble playing or create alternatives for insider buying and selling.
Though among the proposals embody Republican participation, a lot of the payments launched in March have been led by Democrats, who’ve more and more framed prediction markets as an ethics and corruption concern forward of the 2026 election cycle.
Congressional exercise is unfolding alongside elevated regulatory consideration. The CFTC, which oversees occasion contracts and derivatives markets, has been working to extra clearly outline how occasion contracts are regulated, together with considering potential rulemaking and soliciting public enter, steps that sometimes precede formal federal rules. Any ensuing framework may handle among the considerations raised by lawmakers. Meanwhile, throughout remarks Tuesday at an NYU Law School event, CFTC enforcement director David Miller mentioned that the company shall be “prosecuting circumstances towards those that tip or commerce with misappropriated data” primarily based on present regulation.
The CFTC’s oversight stems from the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), the federal regulation governing derivatives markets within the United States. Prediction markets are handled as “occasion contracts” below that framework, putting them below the CFTC’s jurisdiction. As a outcome, a lot of the formally launched March payments have been referred to the House and Senate Agriculture Committees, which have major jurisdiction over the CFTC.
Many of the proposals search to amend or make clear how the CEA applies to prediction markets, significantly in defining permissible contracts and participation. Others lengthen past the CEA, incorporating ethics guidelines or client safety measures.
Tracking congressional prediction market payments in 2026
A complete of 14 prediction market-related payments have been launched in Congress in 2026, representing 11 distinct proposals. That whole counts bicameral efforts as separate House and Senate payments. Below is a chronological tracker of these proposals.
| Date launched | Bill # (Chamber) | Bill identify | Sponsors | Core focus | Status |
| Jan 9, 2026 | H.R. 7004 (House) | Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 | Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) | Prohibits buying and selling on prediction markets by people with entry to nonpublic authorities data | Referred to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform |
| Feb 10, 2026 | H.R. 7477 (House) | Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act | Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV) | Prohibits sports activities occasion contracts on federally regulated exchanges | Referred to the House Committee on Agriculture |
| Mar 5, 2026 | S. 4017 (Senate) | End Prediction Market Corruption Act | Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) | Bars public officers from buying and selling prediction markets tied to authorities actions | Referred to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry |
| Mar 5, 2026 | H.R. 7840 (House) | Event Contract Enforcement Act | Rep. Blake Moore (R-UT), Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-CA) | Directs the CFTC to ban sure occasion contracts tied to terrorism, battle, crime, and sports activities | Referred to the House Committee on Agriculture |
| Mar 10, 2026 | S. 4035 / H.R. 7942 (Bicameral) | DEATH BETS Act | Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA) | Bans contracts tied to loss of life, violence, and nationwide safety occasions | Referred to Senate and House Agriculture Committees |
| Mar 11, 2026 | S. 4060 (Senate) | Prediction Markets Security and Integrity Act | Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Sen. Andy Kim (D-NJ) | Establishes federal safeguards on manipulation, insider buying and selling, underage entry, and client protections in prediction markets | Referred to the Senate Judiciary Committee |
| Mar 17, 2026 | S. 4115 / H.R. 7955 (Bicameral) | BETS OFF Act | Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX), Sen. John Hickenlooper (D-CO) | Bans markets on navy and delicate authorities actions | Referred to the Senate and House Judiciary committees; House invoice additionally despatched to committees on Agriculture and Financial Services |
| Mar 23, 2026 | S. 4160 (Senate) | Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act | Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA), Sen. John Curtis (R-UT) | Classifies sports activities occasion contracts as playing, successfully barring them from federally regulated exchanges | Referred to the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry |
| Mar 25, 2026 | H.R. 8076 (House) | PREDICT Act | Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE), Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL) | Prohibits federal officers from buying and selling on prediction markets tied to authorities actions | Referred to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform |
| Mar 25, 2026 | S. 4188 (Senate) | Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 | Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), Sen. Todd Young (R-IN), Sen. John Curtis (R-UT), Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) | Prohibits federal officers from buying and selling on prediction markets utilizing nonpublic data | Referred to the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs |
| Mar 26, 2026 | H.R. 8123 / S. 4226 (Bicameral) | STOP Corrupt Bets Act | Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) | Prohibits prediction market contracts tied to elections, sports activities, authorities actions, and navy or geopolitical occasions | Referred to the Senate and House Agriculture committees |
Targeting who can take part in prediction markets
Lawmakers are largely approaching prediction markets from two instructions: limiting who can take part and limiting what sorts of contracts could be provided, with some overlap.
A serious focus is limiting buying and selling by authorities officers and others with entry to nonpublic data, reflecting concern that prediction markets could possibly be used to revenue from insider data.
Several proposals take this strategy, together with the End Prediction Market Corruption Act from Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), and the PREDICT Act from Rep. Adrian Smith (R-NE) and Rep. Nikki Budzinski (D-IL), each of which might prohibit members of Congress and federal officers from buying and selling on contracts tied to authorities actions. While related in intent, the proposals differ in scope, with some targeted totally on elected officers and others extending to a wider set of federal workers.
The push builds on earlier efforts. The Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, launched in January by Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY), was the primary congressional invoice this 12 months concentrating on prediction markets and focuses on buying and selling by people with entry to nonpublic authorities data. A separate, more moderen Senate proposal led by Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI), which shares the identical identify, would apply similar restrictions, however takes a distinct strategy by embedding the principles inside federal ethics regulation below Title 5 and establishing a broader enforcement framework.
Unlike most of the different prediction market proposals, which have been referred to the House and Senate agriculture committees, the Torres and Slotkin measures had been routed by committees targeted on authorities conduct and oversight. Torres’ House invoice was referred to the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, whereas Slotkin’s Senate proposal was despatched to the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. The cut up displays how some measures are treating prediction markets not solely as a market-regulation situation, but in addition as a authorities ethics situation.
“No one needs to be profiting off the data and data gained as a public servant, interval,” Slotkin mentioned in a statement. “This invoice is a vital first step in putting frequent sense guidelines round prediction markets, and it has actual tooth to make sure those that break these guidelines face actual penalties.”
Limiting what sorts of prediction markets regulated platforms can supply
A second group of proposals focuses on limiting the sorts of contracts that prediction markets can supply, significantly these tied to sports activities, elections, battle and authorities actions.
Several payments take a focused strategy. The BETS OFF Act, launched by Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) and Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX), would prohibit markets tied to navy operations and different authorities actions, whereas the DEATH BETS Act, led by Sen. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA), would explicitly ban contracts tied to loss of life, violence, and nationwide safety occasions.
Others take a wider-ranging strategy. The bicameral STOP Corrupt Bets Act, launched by Sen. Merkley and Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), would prohibit occasion contracts tied to elections, sports activities, and authorities exercise, representing one of the vital sweeping proposals launched to date.
“The oligarchs and opportunists are utilizing prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket to complement themselves,” Raskin mentioned in a news release saying the invoice. “But democracy isn’t about insider playing on our frequent future, it’s about everybody making our frequent future collectively. Placing bets on public coverage and political occasions knowledgeable by insider data and insider manipulation spreads civic cynicism and mistrust in our democratic establishments.”
Sports occasion contracts draw focus
While the STOP Corrupt Bets Act touches on it, among the current laws is concentrated particularly on prohibiting sports activities prediction markets, although the proposals take barely totally different approaches.
The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, launched by Sen. Schiff and Sen. John Curtis (R-UT), would bar federally regulated exchanges from providing sports activities occasion contracts by treating them as outdoors the scope of permissible contracts below federal regulation. The Fair Markets and Sports Integrity Act, introduced in February by Rep. Dina Titus (D-NV), would as an alternative immediately prohibit sports activities markets on these platforms.
The concentrate on sports activities displays a broader jurisdictional debate. While prediction markets are regulated on the federal degree, sports activities betting is ruled by state regulation, creating stress over the place the occasion contracts match, which has led to quite a few authorized battles which have left nationwide availability in limbo.
“Sports prediction contracts are sports activities bets — simply with a distinct identify,” Schiff mentioned in a statement saying his laws. “And but, these contracts have been provided in all fifty states in clear violation of state and federal regulation. Rather than implement the regulation, the CFTC is greenlighting these markets and even selling their progress. It’s time for Congress to step in and eradicate this backdoor which violates state client protections, intrudes upon tribal sovereignty, and gives no public income.”
What’s subsequent for Congress and prediction market laws
Despite the quantity of proposals, not one of the launched prediction market payments have superior past committee referral, and no hearings or markups have been scheduled. That suggests the present wave of laws stays in early phases, with unclear prospects for passage within the close to time period.
Still, the tempo of exercise factors to sustained curiosity within the situation. A complete of 12 payments had been launched between March 5 and March 26, a span of simply three weeks, indicating that lawmakers are persevering with to develop and refine their approaches.
It appears possible that further proposals will emerge within the coming months as Congress, regulators, and trade individuals proceed to grapple with how prediction markets needs to be ruled. Both chambers are scheduled to return from spring recess on April 13, when legislative exercise is anticipated to renew.
For now, nonetheless, most analysts anticipate the legislative wave to interrupt earlier than it reaches a vote. TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg known as the payments “messaging laws” with no viable path to passage, and famous that President Trump, whose administration has actively championed prediction markets, would nearly definitely veto any invoice that did advance. The near-term battlefield could also be regulatory and authorized somewhat than legislative, leaving the CFTC’s rulemaking course of and ongoing courtroom battles over state jurisdiction because the extra fast forces shaping what prediction markets can and can’t do.
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