$150B in US Tax Refunds Could Fuel Fresh Crypto Inflows, Historical Data Suggests
A flood of recent money may about to land in crypto. Roughly $150 billion in tax refunds will hit U.S. client accounts by the top of March.
Some analysts suppose a part of that cash may drift straight into threat property. Including crypto. Wells Fargo strategists say this refund wave, boosted by 2026 tax incentives, could quietly gasoline retail participation once more.
And the timing is attention-grabbing. Markets are sitting at key technical ranges. If even a fraction of that capital rotates into digital property, the retail bid may present up proper when it issues most.
Key Takeaways
- $150B Liquidity Wave: Wells Fargo analysts challenge roughly $150 billion in refunds will likely be distributed by late March.
- Refunds Are Up 11%: Early IRS knowledge reveals the typical refund dimension has jumped to $2,290, rising retail buying energy.
- Retail Catalyst: Historical knowledge suggests the “refund impact” correlates with elevated inflows into retail-heavy crypto property.
Why Does Refund Season Matter for Crypto?
Liquidity strikes markets. And proper now, the U.S. Treasury is about to inject a wave of it. After the One Big Beautiful Bill handed in July 2025, tax cuts boosted refund sizes for lots of Americans.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has already hinted that refunds this season could possibly be “very massive.” That means extra disposable money touchdown in financial institution accounts.
Average tax refunds are projected to leap by $1,000 this yr — returning $91 BILLION again to the American individuals.
The largest tax refund season in U.S. historical past is right here because of @HouseGOP’s Working Families Tax Cuts.
More a refund in your pocket.
pic.twitter.com/U3hktiKsq7
— Congressman Gabe Evans (@repgabeevans) February 7, 2026
Historically, lump sum payouts like this don’t simply go towards payments. A slice usually flows into investments. And in latest cycles, that has included digital property. Retail participation tends to rise when individuals really feel flush.
Refund averages often peak round mid February. That timing strains up with the present surge in exercise throughout a number of altcoins. When recent money meets technical breakout zones, the response could be sharper than most count on.
The Data: Bigger Checks, Faster Deposits
The early numbers for the 2026 submitting season are already coming in sizzling. By February 6, the IRS had processed greater than 20.6 million returns and despatched out practically $16.954 billion in refunds.
The common test is now around $2,290, up roughly 10.9% from final yr.
