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2014 vs. 2026: Is Bitcoin Repeating Its Darkest Bear Market History?

Bitcoin’s present bear market is forward of earlier cycles in efficiency, however analysts warning {that a} deeper decline should still happen later in 2026.

Bitcoin Tracking Above Previous Bear Cycles

Bitcoin has fallen 32% from its all-time high of over $126,000, which was reached in early October, 2025. In earlier cycles, losses at this stage have been bigger, starting from 43% to 66%. This reveals that the present cycle has been much less extreme to this point in comparison with 2014, 2018, and 2022.

However, this stronger place might not maintain. Past cycles additionally noticed intervals of stability earlier than a steep fall close to the tip. CryptoCon, a market analyst, in contrast previous cycles and famous that they have an inclination to comply with completely different paths early on, however later align simply earlier than reaching their closing lows.

Based on this sample, the chart reveals a possible convergence level in September 2026, the place Bitcoin’s worth is anticipated to succeed in $35,000. This is the extent the place previous cycles started their closing drop. CryptoCon said that “solely the ultimate drop actually appears to matter,” pointing to this second as a vital stage within the bear market.

If this cycle continues to comply with earlier ones, Bitcoin may attain a low between $28,000 and $17,000 between October and November 2026. The timing additionally aligns with the Halving Cycles Theory, which forecasts a backside between November 2026 and January 2027.

Recent Price Action and Market Volatility

At press time, BTC trades round $88,000 with a each day buying and selling quantity of over $49 billion. Over the previous 24 hours, the worth fell by 1.5%, and over the previous week, it declined by virtually 2.5% (per CoinGecko’s knowledge).

Yesterday noticed heightened volatility. BTC crossed $90,000 twice however pulled again shortly. After the Federal Reserve’s fee choice, Bitcoin held above $89,000. However, the transfer triggered widespread liquidations. More than 120,000 merchants have been compelled out of positions, with mixed losses of round $350 million.

Analysts Point to Conflicting Signals

Some market watchers anticipate a correction quickly.

“If the 4-year cycle remains to be in play, $BTC will dump to $30,000 in February,” wrote Chiefy.

Others are targeted on long-term knowledge. Kapoor Kshitiz noted that Binance Reserve Cost has moved to $62,000, a degree that has acted as a backside throughout previous bear phases. Bitcoin has not but revisited this degree since ETF approval.

On-chain knowledge reveals the share of BTC held at a loss is beginning to rise once more. This development appeared early in bear markets in 2014, 2018, and 2022. While this doesn’t verify a closing backside, it could present the early levels of an extended downturn.

At the identical time, long-term holders have shifted again to accumulation. CryptosRus said, “This seems much less like a prime… and extra like consolidation earlier than continuation.” Realized Cap has additionally reached new highs, suggesting a gradual influx of capital.

The put up 2014 vs. 2026: Is Bitcoin Repeating Its Darkest Bear Market History? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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