3 Forces Put Ethereum’s January Peak at Risk as $3,050 Turns Critical

Ethereum worth is slipping once more. ETH is down about 3.2% over the previous 24 hours, extending its pullback from the January peak close to $3,390. On the floor, this seems to be like a traditional cooldown inside a broader uptrend. But the chart construction exhibits rising pressure underneath the hood.

The danger just isn’t apparent at first look, however it builds when a number of indicators are considered collectively.

Ethereum’s Bullish Structure Is Intact, But Momentum Is Quietly Weakening

Ethereum remains inside a rising channel, with the decrease trendline nonetheless holding since mid-November. This construction retains the present development technically bullish. However, worth failed to interrupt the higher boundary on December 10 and once more topped close to $3,390 on January 14 earlier than rolling over.

The warning comes from momentum habits, the primary bearish power. Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is a momentum indicator that compares latest good points to latest losses to indicate whether or not shopping for or promoting stress is strengthening.

Between December 10 and January 14, the Ethereum worth made a decrease high whereas the RSI made the next high. That mixture displays hidden bearish stress. It indicators that momentum improved, however worth failed to reply, typically showing close to development exhaustion zones.

Then, between January 6 and January 14, the ETH worth pushed barely greater once more, however RSI shaped a decrease high. That second transfer added a normal bearish divergence on the every day timeframe.

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Together, these two RSI indicators level to the identical conclusion. Momentum is fading throughout each the broader swing and the latest push, or moderately, the January peak. That doesn’t verify a breakdown, however it raises the chance that the January peak may maintain except patrons regain management shortly.

If momentum continues to weaken, Ethereum turns into susceptible to a deeper check of assist. That shifts consideration to on-chain habits.

Profit Incentives Exist, But Spot Sellers Are Staying Calm

On-chain information exhibits Ethereum holders are sitting on sizeable unrealized good points. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, or NUPL, measures whether or not holders are in revenue or loss by evaluating present costs to the common acquisition worth of cash.

Ethereum’s mixture NUPL, overlaying each short- and long-term holders, is hovering close to its highest month-to-month degree. Even after the latest drop of greater than 6% from the January peak, NUPL solely slipped from about 0.31 to 0.30. That is a small, 3% decline relative to the value transfer.

This issues as a result of high NUPL creates an incentive to take earnings, particularly when technical indicators weaken. On paper, Ethereum is susceptible to revenue reserving. That’s the second power.

But that danger has not performed out within the spot market.

Spent Coins Age Band information, which tracks what number of cash are literally transferring on-chain, exhibits the other habits. Since January 14, spent coin exercise throughout cohorts has collapsed from roughly 318,000 ETH to about 84,300 ETH (month-to-month low). That is a drop of almost 74%.

In easy phrases, fewer holders are transferring cash even as the value falls. That suggests no panic promoting and no rush to comprehend earnings. Spot holders seem affected person, absorbing the dip moderately than accelerating it.

So if spot habits is calm, the place does the draw back danger come from?

(*3*)Derivatives Positioning Turns $3,050 Into a Make-or-Break Ethereum Price Level

The stress shifts when derivatives are added to the image.

On Binance’s ETH-USDT perpetual market, positioning over the subsequent 30 days is closely skewed towards longs. Cumulative lengthy leverage sits close to $3.36 billion, whereas brief publicity is nearer to $1.93 billion. That creates a robust lengthy bias, with roughly 80–90% of directional publicity leaning a technique.

This imbalance turns into harmful close to key worth ranges.

Liquidation maps present the biggest focus of lengthy liquidations clustered beneath $3,050. Above that degree, liquidation stress is comparatively restricted. Below it, a a lot bigger portion of the $3.3 billion in lengthy leverage turns into susceptible. That comes throughout as the third power.

That aligns immediately with the chart.

The $3,050 space sits as one of many key assist ranges for ETH since early 2026. A every day break beneath it could not solely activate heavy lengthy liquidations but additionally come near breaking the channel construction that has supported ETH since November. In that state of affairs, draw back momentum may speed up shortly, with $2,760 rising as the subsequent main assist.

On the upside, Ethereum needs to reclaim $3,390 on a every day near neutralize the bearish momentum indicators. A transfer above $3,480 would strengthen restoration odds. A full development breakout doubtless requires a push above $3,650, opening the door towards $4,260 later.

For now, the message is evident. Momentum is weakening. Profit incentives exist. Spot holders are calm. Derivatives are crowded. Ethereum has not damaged but. But if $3,050 fails, the chance stops being theoretical.

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