3 Reasons Why This DeFi Subcategory Could Lead the Next Altcoin Season
Altcoin season remains to be not right here, however merchants are already waiting for early indicators. One DeFi-specific sector stands out greater than others: decentralized exchanges. Whales have been shopping for DEX tokens throughout a weak market, and their value conduct reveals they’ll transfer on their very own when Bitcoin slows down.
If the subsequent altcoin season arrives, that is one among the few teams that already reveals early management traits. Let us perceive why!
Reason 1: DEX Trading Share Keeps Rising Against CEX Spot and Perps
The DEX market has been gaining floor all 12 months.
Spot DEX trading volume, measured as a share of world spot quantity, has climbed from 5.4% in September 2022 to 21.19% in November 2025. June 2025 peaked at 37.4%, the highest stage on file. This reveals customers are shifting extra spot exercise on-chain even when the broader market is weak.
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Derivatives exercise tells the identical story.
The DEX-to-CEX perpetuals ratio jumped from 2.05% in November 2024 to 11.7% this month, its strongest studying but. When extra merchants select on-chain perpetuals over exchange-based ones, it suggests confidence in DEX techniques is rising.
Despite this energy, the DEX token class remains to be down 3.9% in the previous week, whereas CEX tokens are up the identical quantity. This hole factors to undervaluation and creates room for DEX tokens to catch up if sentiment improves.
That is why this subcategory is changing into one among the first locations merchants verify once they rotate away from majors.
Reason 2: Whales Are Quietly Accumulating Key DEX Tokens
DEX-specific value motion appears weak on the floor, however massive wallets have been shopping for steadily. Whales and mega-whales added throughout the main DEX names even whereas costs drifted sideways to decrease over the final 30 days.
Uniswap (UNI) is down 3.4% in 30 days, however mega-whales elevated holdings by 11.66%. Top 100 addresses now maintain 8.98 million UNI, displaying sturdy accumulation whereas exchanges proceed to lose provide.
Aster (ASTER) is nearly flat in 30 days, up 0.9%, however the whale sign is even stronger. Whale holdings jumped 133%, and top-tier addresses added 2.87% extra provide. Retail wallets proceed to promote (trade netflows in inexperienced), however whales positioning early is normally the first signal of a sector turning earlier than value follows.
PancakeSwap (CAKE) is down 5.4% in 30 days, but the prime 100 addresses (mega whales) elevated their balances by 40.51%.
This sample throughout three unrelated DEX ecosystems reveals one frequent message: massive holders are constructing publicity throughout weak point, not exiting.
When a sector reveals rising on-chain adoption and rising whale demand at the identical time, it usually turns into one among the earliest beneficiaries when danger urge for food returns.
Reason 3: DEX Tokens Move Differently When Bitcoin Stalls
Monthly correlation traits present that key DEX tokens are not shifting in lockstep with Bitcoin. Correlation right here refers to the Pearson correlation coefficient, which measures how two costs transfer collectively. A detrimental worth means they transfer in reverse instructions.
UNI reveals a lightweight detrimental correlation with Bitcoin at –0.13. ASTER reveals a a lot stronger detrimental studying at –0.57, which is uncommon throughout a Bitcoin-led market.
This signifies that when Bitcoin pulls again, these tokens usually don’t observe instantly. In some circumstances, they appeal to early speculative flows as a result of they transfer independently. This independence is one among the earliest indicators of altcoin rotation.
Charts help the identical view.
ASTER’s 12-hour chart reveals a accomplished bearish crossover between the 20-period and 50-period EMA (Exponential Moving Average), and the bearish energy has been reducing since. When a token with detrimental BTC correlation reveals weakening bearish strain put up bearish crossover, it turns into one among the first candidates to rebound if market situations flip.
An EMA is a shifting common that provides extra weight to latest value candles.
UNI trades inside a decent pennant with a weak higher trendline, solely two touchpoints. A break above $6.91 opens $8.06 after which $10.26, however it should want affirmation from its on-balance quantity (OBV). OBV measures quantity movement, and with out an upside shift, breakouts usually fail. Still, the technical construction aligns with the whale accumulation and the detrimental correlation backdrop.
This mixture—whales shopping for, bearish energy fading, and value decoupling—is strictly how early altcoin leaders behave earlier than a broader cycle begins.
But Altcoin Season Has Not Started Yet
According to BlockchainCenter’s Altcoin Season Index, the present rating is 33, far under the 75 threshold that indicators a real altcoin season.
The index additionally reveals that we’re 63 days since the final altcoin season burst and that the common hole between seasons is 67 days. This locations the market near the window the place rotations normally begin, however not there but.
Bitcoin dominance remains to be high, which implies Bitcoin nonetheless controls most of the cash flowing out and in of crypto. For an altcoin season to kind, two issues should occur collectively:
- The complete crypto market cap must develop.
- (*3*) at the identical time.
That mixture would present that merchants are shifting cash from Bitcoin into altcoins. Only then can a sector get away in a sustainable manner.
If that shift occurs on this cycle, DEX tokens have one among the strongest circumstances to guide the early wave. They already present rising quantity share, regular whale demand, and detrimental correlation with Bitcoin—traits that usually seem in the sectors that rotate first.
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