3 Warning Signs of Bitcoin Exhaustion in the Final Week of September

Bitcoin’s worth continues to hover above $110,000, however started displaying promoting stress in the final week of September.

Several on-chain metrics and macroeconomic alerts now warn that BTC’s rally could have run out of steam. What are these warning indicators? The particulars are under.

3 Warning Signals for Bitcoin Price in the Final Week of September

Historical data reveals that September carries a “curse” lasting over a decade. It has persistently been the (*3*). With simply over every week left, this sample threatens to repeat as negative signals build.

On-Chain Signal: SOPR Indicates Profitability Is Drying Up

Analyst Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, highlighted that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Trend Signal is flashing bearish.

SOPR measures whether or not Bitcoin transactions on-chain are worthwhile or dropping. A studying above 1 means sellers are in revenue (promoting BTC above their buy worth). A studying under 1 means sellers are at a loss (promoting under value).

Currently, SOPR stays above 1 however is trending downward. This means that profitability from on-chain transactions is fading.

Historically, purple zones on the chart mark Bitcoin peaks, as proven throughout a number of previous cycles. Wedson defined that traders are inclined to accumulate BTC too late and at excessively high costs throughout such instances.

“The SOPR Trend Signal is great at signaling when blockchain profitability is drying up. Never in Bitcoin’s historical past have traders gathered BTC so late and at such high costs,” Joao Wedson said.

Wedson additionally identified that short-term holders’ (STH) realized worth is $111,400, which is near the present market degree. Any drop under this threshold might set off stop-loss promoting. Alarmingly, BTC already fell under this degree in the remaining week of September.

Additionally, regardless of Bitcoin’s larger worth than earlier cycles, the Sharpe ratio is weaker. This means risk-adjusted returns are decrease, and so is revenue potential.

Exchange Signal: Taker Buy/Sell Ratio Drops Sharply, Selling Pressure Dominates

CryptoQuant knowledge reveals the taker purchase/promote ratio throughout all exchanges has fallen under 1 in latest weeks. The 30-day easy shifting common (SMA30) additionally follows this downward pattern.

This signifies that lively promoting quantity (taker promote) now outpaces shopping for, reflecting adverse dealer sentiment. Historically, when this ratio stays underneath 1, Bitcoin usually faces downward stress, particularly when costs are already close to report highs.

This is a transparent signal that bullish momentum is weakening. Without new capital inflows, the remaining week of September might see a reversal.

Macro Signal from DXY

Since the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has rebounded. It climbed from 96.2 factors to 97.8 factors.

Some analysts warn that the inverse correlation between DXY and BTC could return, posing draw back dangers to Bitcoin’s worth.

Analyst Killa outlined a broader situation: if DXY continues to get better, Bitcoin could reverse—simply because it did in 2014, 2018, and 2021.

These three alerts—on-chain, exchange-based, and macro—reinforce Bitcoin’s September curse. If historical past repeats, the remaining days of the month might affirm it.

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