4 Signs That Bitcoin Is in the Early Stages of a Bear Market: How Long Could It Last?
Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 23.4% to date this 12 months, after declining greater than 6% in 2025. Prices have remained beneath sustained strain, with the main cryptocurrency at present buying and selling at $67,214.
Amid this, a key query continues to weigh on market sentiment: when will the Bitcoin downtrend finish? Four key indicators counsel that the asset should still be in the early levels of a bear market, elevating the chance of additional draw back.
Capital Flight Confirms Bearish Sentiment Shift
Investor stream knowledge sends the first warning signal. CryptoQuant knowledge confirmed new investor inflows have turned unfavourable. An analyst stated this means the ongoing sell-off is not being absorbed by new capital getting into the market.
The analyst defined that in bull markets, capital tends to speed up throughout value drawdowns, as buyers deal with dips as shopping for alternatives. In distinction, the early levels of bear markets are sometimes marked by capital withdrawal amid weak point.
(*4*)
“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal consumers exit and value is pushed by inside rotation, not web inflows. Without renewed inflows, upside strikes stay corrective. This conduct is in line with early bear market circumstances: contracting liquidity and narrowing participation,” the analyst added.
Technical Pattern Signals Room for Another Leg Lower in Bitcoin
Crypto analyst Jelle pointed to historic cycle knowledge to border the present draw back danger. He defined that in earlier main bear markets, price bottomed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement measured from the prior cycle peak.
The earliest cycle noticed a considerably deeper transfer, with Bitcoin falling roughly 64% past the 0.618 stage. In later cycles, nonetheless, the depth of these breakdowns moderated.
The most up-to-date bear market backside fashioned about 45% beneath that retracement threshold, reflecting a sample of progressively shallower declines.
(*4*)
“0.618 from the present cycle high sits at $57,000. If Bitcoin bottoms simply 30% beneath the 0.618 retracement this time round, we’re nonetheless $42,000,” the analyst remarked.
This suggests the value might fall additional. Additionally, different specialists have beforehand forecasted that Bitcoin might discover a backside even below $40,000.
Market Cycle Indicator Points to Further Downside Risk
In addition, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which tracks broader market phases, indicators that bearish circumstances started in October 2025. However, the metric has not but entered what is usually categorised as an excessive bear section.
In earlier cycles, the indicator has moved into the dark-blue zone, suggesting that decrease ranges should still lie forward.
Whales Stack BTC, Yet Recovery May Take Time
Finally, on-chain knowledge exhibits that Bitcoin whales have been accumulating throughout the current dip, as trade outflows proceed to rise. The 30-day simple moving average of trade outflows has climbed to three.2%.
This sample carefully mirrors the first half of 2022. Although whale accumulation is usually interpreted as a constructive sign, historical past suggests warning. In the earlier cycle, a broader restoration didn’t materialize till early 2023.
The similarity in construction means that whereas good cash could also be positioning, it doesn’t essentially imply a direct rebound is imminent. Instead, the knowledge implies that the market might stay beneath strain in the close to time period, whilst long-term holders proceed to construct publicity.
Separately, Kaiko analysis suggested that Bitcoin nonetheless seems to be monitoring its conventional four-year cycle. Based on that framework, the agency said,
(*4*)
“The four-year cycle framework predicts we ought to be at the 30% mark.”
Taken collectively, these 4 indicators level to the chance that Bitcoin might stay beneath strain. However, when the bear market will finish stays a level of division amongst specialists.
Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, said it is unlikely that Bitcoin will see a V-shaped restoration earlier than the summer time of 2026. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, has additionally urged that the present bearish section might finish in Q3 2026.
In distinction, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has expressed a more optimistic view, indicating that the finish of the crypto winter could possibly be approaching.
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