4 US Economic Signals That Could Move Bitcoin in the President’s Day Holiday Week
Bitcoin is getting into a pivotal macro week because it hovers close to $68,600 on February 16, 2026. After a unstable begin to the yr, together with a pointy retracement from 2025 highs above $126,000, markets stay extremely delicate to US financial knowledge.
Tariff tensions, sticky inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s resolution to pause price cuts have saved threat belongings on edge. With US markets closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, liquidity is thinner than standard, an element that might amplify volatility as soon as main knowledge begins midweek.
US Economic Data Crypto Traders Must Watch This Week
Traders are centered on 4 key releases: the January FOMC minutes on Wednesday, preliminary jobless claims on Thursday, and Friday’s This fall GDP revision alongside December PCE inflation.
According to CME FedWatch knowledge, markets are pricing simply 9.8% odds of a March price reduce, reflecting skepticism that easing is imminent.
In this atmosphere, even modest surprises might decide whether or not Bitcoin checks $70,000 resistance or revisits the $60,000 assist zone.
FOMC Minutes
The launch of the January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)minutes will seemingly set the week’s tone.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% throughout its final assembly, signaling warning amid resilient progress and protracted providers inflation.
FOMC minutes on Wednesday will present deeper perception into policymakers’ internal debates, notably round inflation dangers, labor power, and tariff-related pressures.
A hawkish tone emphasizing sticky inflation or upside dangers might reinforce “larger for longer” expectations. Historically, comparable alerts have triggered 3–5% Bitcoin pullbacks inside 24 hours as Treasury yields rise and liquidity expectations tighten.
Conversely, any language suggesting balanced dangers or rising concern over slowing progress might revive rate-cut hypothesis.
In holiday-thinned buying and selling circumstances, even delicate dovish cues could also be sufficient to push Bitcoin towards $70,000.
Initial Jobless Claims
Thursday’s jobless claims report gives a real-time snapshot of labor market well being, a core pillar of the Fed’s dual mandate.
Consensus expects roughly 220,000 new filings for the week ending February 14, down from 227,000 beforehand.
A studying under 210,000 would reinforce labor resilience and scale back the chance of near-term easing. That final result might stress Bitcoin 1–3% decrease as markets recalibrate rate-cut expectations.
On the different hand, claims above 230,000 would increase considerations about softening employment circumstances. In previous cycles, weaker labor prints have boosted threat belongings on the assumption that the Fed might pivot sooner. Such a state of affairs might carry Bitcoin 2–4% as easing bets improve.
With BTC consolidating between $68,000 and $69,000, this launch might function a bridge between Wednesday’s Fed perception and Friday’s inflation knowledge.
This fall 2025 GDP (Final Revision)
Friday’s ultimate This fall GDP revision is predicted to point out +2.5% annualized progress, a major step down from the preliminary +4.4% estimate.
A draw back shock under 2.3% would reinforce slowdown narratives and doubtlessly enhance Bitcoin 3–6% as markets worth in earlier coverage aid. Softer shopper spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, can be carefully watched.
However, a print above 2.7% might complicate the outlook. Strong progress might delay easing, reinforcing “larger for longer” expectations and weighing on crypto markets.
Bitcoin remains highly correlated with equities throughout main macro releases. Strong progress mixed with persistent inflation has traditionally triggered short-term BTC pullbacks.
PCE & Core PCE
The week’s most vital catalyst arrives with December’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s most popular inflation gauge.
Expectations name for +0.3% month-over-month will increase in each headline and core PCE, with year-over-year readings round 2.8–2.9%.
A cooler-than-expected 0.2% MoM print would sign additional disinflation progress. That final result might meaningfully improve the chance of a price reduce and spark a 4–8% Bitcoin rally, doubtlessly pushing costs decisively above $70,000.
But a warmer print above 0.3% would reinforce sticky inflation considerations, seemingly triggering 3–5% draw back stress as yields climb and easing hopes fade.
Core PCE, which strips out meals and vitality, will carry explicit weight for policymakers and merchants alike.
From Fed messaging to labor resilience, progress revisions, and inflation knowledge, every launch feeds immediately into expectations for 2026 financial coverage.
With Bitcoin stabilizing close to $68,600 however nonetheless properly under its 2025 highs, the market stays acutely delicate to liquidity alerts.
Dovish surprises throughout the board might reignite threat urge for food and drive a breakout towards $70,000 and past. Hawkish knowledge, nevertheless, might deepen the correction towards $60,000–$65,000.
The submit 4 US Economic Signals That Could Move Bitcoin in the President’s Day Holiday Week appeared first on BeInCrypto.
