$5.56B Whale Money Hits Binance – Is It Bitcoin Topping or Exchange Playing Games?
Binance obtained $5.56 billion in whale transactions exceeding 1,000 BTC over the previous 30 days, with $1.07 billion arriving on October 21 alone as Bitcoin surged from $108,000 to $113,000 earlier than retracing.
The large inflows have raised questions on whether or not these members are accumulating positions or depositing cash for liquidation.
At the identical time, allegations emerged accusing Binance of coordinating with market maker Wintermute to control crypto costs and trigger $19 billion in retail liquidations throughout the October 10 crash.
October 21 noticed concentrated bursts, together with $336.95 million at 18:00, $323.43 million at 10:00, and $162.24 million at 08:00.
Bitcoin at present trades round $109,000 after reversing Monday’s pump from $114,000.
The timing coincides with $1.83 billion in Bitcoin movements from wallets linked to Chinese mining pool LuBian, marking the second main switch in two weeks from the entity linked to the biggest confirmed Bitcoin theft.
Exchanges Manipulation? Alleged
Crypto analyst MartyParty accused Binance of manipulating crypto costs via market maker Wintermute, claiming “this manipulation brought on the $19b of retail liquidations October tenth but no motion taken.”
X consumer 941 theorized that the October 10-11 wipeout was “manufactured” via throttled withdrawals and captured spreads by way of charges and inner profit-and-loss accounting.
The analyst claimed exchanges may “power liquidations, sluggish withdrawals, e book inner P&L, and harvest 8-12 bps on excessive turnover days.“
The geopolitical concept posits that if Washington makes home hash fee and mined BTC collateral for Treasuries, “the greenback turns into vitality backed once more, this time by computation fairly than crude.”
This poses a menace to China’s BRICS commodity clearing mannequin, which relies on gold and the digital yuan.
The analyst argued that China can’t simply cease American miners or ETF flows, however “can assault the value discovery layer” via offshore venues like Binance, Bybit, and Hyperliquid, which supply deep liquidity however lack U.S. regulatory oversight.
Accumulation Data Conflicts With Distribution Theories
Binance Bitcoin outflow information from CryptoQuant reveals the 30-day moving average has been strongly negative, which suggests traders are offloading holdings from exchanges and accumulating.
However, the simultaneous $5.56 billion in whale inflows creates a contradiction.
Daily BTC spot volumes on Binance ranged between $3 billion and $5 billion since January 2025, however surged to between $5 billion and $10 billion each day since October 10.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio additionally slipped beneath its 365-day common. Previous drops beneath this threshold in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024 all marked native bottoms.
Speaking with Cryptonews, Farzam Ehsani, Co-founder and CEO of VALR, defined that gold’s $2.5 trillion market cap correction “is a recalibatory transfer after an overheated rally” representing “a pure cooling part fairly than a structural change in investor confidence.”
He famous “this cooling season does open a window for Bitcoin to reassert itself within the safe-haven asset dialog” as “traders who’re taking threat off the desk in a single asset are more likely to search uneven upside in one other.“
Ehsani said that “ought to the U.S CPI print come out mushy and commerce talks yield a détente, traders might pivot from pure safety to development participation.”
He projected gold probably hitting $4,500 in Q1 2026 and BTC reaching $130,000-$132,000, “supplied market situations should not additional hampered by macro volatility.”
Asset supervisor Bitwise additionally estimates that simply 3-4% capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin may push BTC above $240,000.
Technical Analysis: Wyckoff Pattern Suggests Breakout Ahead
Bitcoin’s 8-hour chart shows a Wyckoff reaccumulation part construction, with a Selling Climax at $106,000 throughout the liquidation occasion, Spring representing the drop to $102,000, and the present Test part consolidation.
This sequence means that Bitcoin could also be finishing Phase C testing and getting ready for Phase D markup, resulting in increased costs.
CME Bitcoin futures evaluation additionally identifies unfilled gaps at $92,000 and $116,000. Every Bitcoin CME hole since December 2023 has been crammed, aside from these two zones.
Bitcoin is at present testing help close to $112,000, with consolidation between $105,000 and $115,000 positioning the asset equidistant from each unfilled gaps.
If Bitcoin holds above $108,000 and kinds a base, the trail of least resistance targets $117,000 first, with potential to retest earlier highs close to $126,000 if bullish momentum returns.
However, a breakdown beneath $106,000 would invalidate this bullish situation and set off draw back stress towards the $92,000 CME hole.
As it stands now, Bitcoin will probably break decisively towards both $92,000 or $126,000 throughout the coming weeks.
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