5 Bear Market Signals Are Flashing for Bitcoin This January
January has been unstable to date for Bitcoin (BTC), with the asset going through renewed headwinds amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and the EU following President Trump’s newest tariff bulletins.
Over the previous 24 hours, the most important cryptocurrency has fallen almost 2.5% to $92,663. Meanwhile, analysts are pointing to key bear market indicators rising in 2026.
1. Bearish Kumo Twist Appears on Bitcoin Chart
In a current X (previously Twitter) publish, analyst Titan of Crypto pointed to a “Kumo twist,” showing in Bitcoin’s weekly chart. For context, a Kumo twist is a formation that happens when the 2 main spans of the Ichimoku Cloud (Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B) cross, inflicting the longer term cloud to flip path.
Depending on the path of the crossover, it may well sign a possible transition from bullish to bearish conditions or from bearish to bullish. In Bitcoin’s case, the present twist is bearish.
Looking at earlier market cycles, Titan of Crypto famous that comparable weekly Kumo shifts preceded notable corrective phases, throughout which Bitcoin ultimately recorded drawdowns of round 67% to 70%.
“Historically, when the weekly Kumo turned bearish, BTC entered a bear market section. That doesn’t suggest an instantaneous drop. It merely means the general market construction and pattern dynamics have shifted. This is context, not a prediction. Based on the final three cycles,” the publish learn.
2. Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Barriers
In addition, Bitcoin at the moment trades beneath its 365-day shifting common, which sits close to $101,000. This barrier was key in the course of the 2022 bear market, when it halted restoration rallies.
Analysis from Coin Bureau explains that, at current, Bitcoin’s place beneath this MA indicators that the market remains to be in bearish circumstances.
Further technical analysis using the Gaussian Channel on a five-day chart helps these worries. Crypto analyst Raven noticed that Bitcoin has misplaced the channel’s median degree.
The publish added that dropping and failing to retest this degree efficiently have traditionally marked the beginning of a more aggressive phase of bear markets.
“I consider we’re positively heading towards the $103k zone for a retest, or probably barely larger for a liquidity hunt. If we handle to ascertain and maintain help above the median, I’ll let you recognize. Until then, the whole lot must be thought-about only a lifeless cat bounce,” the analyst added.
3. Historical Drawdown Patterns Suggest More Declines
Bitcoin’s value historical past exhibits a recurring sample of sharp declines following cycle peaks. After topping in 2013, Bitcoin fell by about 75.9%, adopted by an 81.2% drawdown after the 2017 high and roughly a 74% decline after the 2021 peak.
In the present cycle, nevertheless, the pullback has been way more modest, with losses simply above 30%, a relatively small correction by historic requirements. This suggests the downturn could also be in its early phases, with additional drops nonetheless doable because the cycle progresses.
4. Market Cycle Indicator Signals Bitcoin Bear Phase Still Developing
While historic drawdowns give attention to value habits after market tops, broader cycle indicators assist assess what the present circumstances align with.
The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which tracks broader market phases, exhibits bearish circumstances started in October 2025. However, it has not but moved into an excessive bear section.
“By this metric, BTC is in bear market territory, and in each previous cycle we’ve prolonged into the dark-blue zone, which suggests decrease ranges are nonetheless possible. But yeah, be my visitor, name for larger! Someone must be exit liquidity ultimately,” an analyst remarked.
5. Exchange Inflows Reveal Distribution by Major Holders
Lastly, on-chain information exhibits an increase in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges. These inflows are dominated by mid- to large-sized holders, notably within the 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC bands.
Increased Bitcoin transfers to exchanges are inclined to signal growing distribution exercise fairly than long-term accumulation, as market members transfer belongings in preparation for potential promoting.
“Their exercise tends to be extra informationally important than fragmented retail flows, because it displays strategic selections fairly than noise. From a macro on-chain perspective, the mixture of elevated change inflows and distribution from bigger cohorts means that the market is coming into a extra fragile section,” an analyst highlighted.
Overall, Bitcoin is exhibiting a number of bear market indicators throughout technical, historic, and on-chain indicators. Still, whether or not it finally follows historic draw back patterns or surprises the market with renewed energy stays unsure.
The publish 5 Bear Market Signals Are Flashing for Bitcoin This January appeared first on BeInCrypto.
