$5 Billion in Year One? Bold Prediction On Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF
Morgan Stanley has launched the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin (BTC) Trust on NYSE Arca underneath the ticker MSBT, changing into the primary main US financial institution to challenge a spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF).
The fund enters a crowded area of greater than 10 spot BTC ETFs that collectively maintain over $85 billion in belongings.
Competing on Cost and Distribution
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts $5 billion in belongings underneath administration inside the first yr and $30 million in day-one buying and selling quantity.
MSBT carries an expense ratio of 14 basis points, making it the most cost effective spot BTC fund available on the market. That undercuts Grayscale Investments’ BTC by one foundation level and BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) by 11 basis points.
IBIT presently dominates with roughly 60% of whole class belongings.
“We actually wished to point out our dedication by having that decrease price. The demand, particularly from the high-net-worth buyers, has been fairly high. Viewed on the agency stage, that is an asset class that’s not going away,” Bloomberg reported, citing Allyson Wallace, Global Head of ETFs at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
Morgan Stanley Wealth Management oversees roughly 16,000 monetary advisers and trillions in shopper belongings.
Since 2024, these advisers have been permitted to advocate third-party BTC ETFs comparable to IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. Now, MSBT retains the administration price in-house.
Balchunas famous that the aggressive price positioning indicators robust demand from monetary advisers.
A Down Market Entry
The timing is notable. BTC has fallen greater than 40% from its October peak close to $126,199 and traded for $71,307 on launch day.
Spot BTC ETFs skilled 4 consecutive months of internet outflows between November 2025 and February 2026, totaling roughly $6.3 billion.
March reversed that streak with $1.32 billion in inflows, although Q1 2026 nonetheless ended with a modest internet outflow.
Morgan Stanley’s willingness to launch into a down market indicators that the financial institution views the present droop as a shopping for alternative quite than a purpose to attend.
ETF analyst Nate Geraci highlighted one other product launching the identical day, the Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF (NGHT).
This monetary instrument offers lengthy BTC publicity solely throughout in a single day hours and rotates into short-term Treasuries throughout the US buying and selling session.
What Comes Next
Morgan Stanley’s ETF ambitions prolong past BTC. The financial institution filed S-1 registrations in January for both an Ethereum trust and a Solana trust.
It additionally plans to roll out retail crypto buying and selling on E-Trade in the primary half of 2026.
Coinbase Custody Trust Co. and Bank of New York Mellon will present digital-asset custody providers for MSBT.
The fund launched with roughly $1 million in preliminary seed capital and 50,000 shares out there for buying and selling.
Whether Balchunas’ $5 billion goal holds will depend upon how shortly Morgan Stanley’s adviser community redirects allocations, and whether or not BTC can stabilize lengthy sufficient to deliver sidelined buyers again into the market.
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