Kalshi Maintains $3B Weekly Volume, Polymarket Pulls Back Post-Masters

Weekly notional quantity on the 2 largest prediction markets pulled again from the prior week’s Masters-fueled highs. Kalshi posted $3.06B for the week of April 13, down 13.6% WoW from the prior week’s report $3.54B. Polymarket had $2.04B in notional quantity final week, down 17.5% from $2.48B, in accordance with DeFi Rate’s prediction markets volume tracker. Between the 2, the week noticed roughly $914M much less in weekly quantity, which ebbs and flows with the sports activities calendar and political forces.

The decline follows report numbers for the sector. Kalshi set an all-time record over $3.5B throughout Masters week as Polymarket’s Trump markets doubled. With no comparable golf main this week, the NBA common season wrapping up, and no breaking geopolitical catalyst, each venues reverted towards baseline. Kalshi’s roughly $1B lead over Polymarket held regular, in keeping with the gap we flagged earlier this month.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket face to face

Over the previous six weeks, Kalshi’s weekly quantity is up ~4% ($2.93B → $3.06B) whereas Polymarket’s is down ~13% ($2.34B → $2.04B). Kalshi has outpaced in each single week and is on a two-week streak for $3B-plus, which is beginning to really feel just like the platform’s new baseline.

On transactions, Polymarket nonetheless edges Kalshi (21.4M vs. 20.9M this week), however the lead has almost vanished. Polymarket was 25% forward on transactions within the week of March 9; the hole has now compressed to ~3% as Polymarket’s transaction depend dropped ~13% over six weeks whereas Kalshi’s rose ~6%.

This week’s pullback was concentrated in variety of contracts traded (as a result of these quantity figures replicate notional quantity), not utilization. Kalshi quantity fell 13.6% WoW in opposition to a 5.8% transaction decline. Polymarket quantity fell 17.5% in opposition to simply 4.1% fewer transactions. Translation: customers stayed engaged however have been shopping for fewer contracts in comparison with an inflated Masters week that had extra Iran-related geopolitical catalysts on the Polymarket aspect.

Category combine for Kalshi and Polymarket

Kalshi’s sports activities + exotics (combos AKA parlays) dropped from $3.04B to $2.52B WoW, placing the mixed sports volume at 82.5% of final week’s complete, down from 85.8% for the height Masters week. Crypto trading was the one main class within the inexperienced (+11.5% to $330M). Politics (−23.7%), Mentions (−37%), and Economics (−58%) all dropped.

Kalshi’s quantity leaderboard final week was dominated by NBA with the play-in match working (April 14-18) and playoffs tipping off April 18. Pro Basketball Champion, MVP, Rookie of the Year, Stanley Cup, and a number of first-round playoff collection accounted for a lot of the high 20. Notable non-sports entries included the California gubernatorial race, the 2028 Democratic nominee market, and a Trump mention market at a Turning Point USA Phoenix occasion that resolved April 18.

Polymarket ran a extra balanced combine. Sports held the highest slot at $944M (−9.6% WoW), led by the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner and Champions League quarterfinal ties (Liverpool–PSG, Bayern–Real Madrid). The headline transfer was the Trump class collapsing −80.4% WoW ($488M → $96M) as short-dated Trump-speech markets wound down and a spotlight rotated into the broader Politics class, which rose 22.8% to $435M on 2028 nominee markets (Newsom, Vance) and the Peru presidential race. Crypto slipped 6.3% to $445M however remained a stable No. 2. Tech was the one Polymarket class to submit a clear acquire (+47%), partially on a surge in weekly Elon Musk tweet-count markets.

Polymarket charges and cross-platform comparability

Polymarket fees eased 8.2% WoW to $7.13M after peaking at $7.77M the prior week. Polymarket has captured ~95%+ of tracked charges for 3 straight weeks, however Kalshi’s charges will not be included within the monitoring. Fees held up higher than quantity, in keeping with a richer mixture of higher-fee markets.

Most smaller tracked platforms noticed week over week will increase, in accordance with Dune’s cross-platform tracking. predict.enjoyable surged from $117M to $702M, Opinion grew 83% to $216M, and Limitless rose 49% to $91M. Kalshi + Polymarket’s mixed share of tracked quantity slipped from 92.5% to 81.2% WoW, although Dune notes there may be no filter for wash volume utilized, so interpret these numbers with warning.

What to look at this week

This week, we now have an enormous quantity driver within the NFL Draft, the following fed charge choice dropping quickly, NFL playoffs in full drive, and likewise World Cup lead-up and US primary election races heating up. Here’s an summary of some main buying and selling occasions developing:

• NFL Draft (Thu–Sat, Apr 23–25): a traditionally robust driver for Kalshi’s occasion e-book by way of pick-position, team-specific, and over/below markets; Polymarket sometimes mirrors the slate.
• FOMC choice (Apr 28–29): Fed-rate markets are already top-20 on each venues; Polymarket’s “no change” contract is close to 99%, however quantity sometimes builds into the print.
• NBA 1st-round playoffs: a number of collection markets already amongst Kalshi’s high 20; Polymarket’s 2026 NBA Champion market is the platform’s No. 4 by quantity.
• Champions League semifinals (late April–early May) and the Eurovision ultimate (May 16): sustained drivers of Polymarket’s sports activities and tradition classes.
• Peru presidential election (Jun 6): Fujimori main with rising quantity on each platforms.

After the anticipated post-Masters weekly quantity dip, don’t anticipate extra regression within the coming weeks. There’s loads of fascinating occasions to assist maintain and exceed present quantity ranges, and we are going to quickly see if Kalshi’s new $3B baseline holds.

Note: Notional quantity counts every contract at its $1 max payout, not its commerce value.

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