Top 5 Biggest 2026 Crypto Surprises Benjamin Cowen and Coin Bureau Didn’t See Coming
Bitcoin dominance buying and selling sideways all yr is the largest 2026 shock for Benjamin Cowen, the Into the Cryptoverse founder. The metric has barely moved since August 2025, defying his preseason forecast.
Coin Bureau founder Guy Turner factors to a special shock. The S&P 500 retains printing highs regardless of an vitality disaster and Middle East tensions that must be crushing danger property.
1. Bitcoin Dominance Stalls All Year
On a recent episode of NFA Live hosted by Rob of Digital Assets News, Cowen stated Bitcoin (BTC) dominance has behaved not like any midterm yr in his analysis. Including stablecoins, the metric has drifted sideways since August 2025. He additionally flagged a associated anomaly round semiconductors, which ripped roughly 40% larger in a number of weeks.
“I don’t actually assume anybody had on their bingo card going into 2026 that Bitcoin dominance would simply commerce sideways principally for… the primary half of the yr.”
2. ETFs Killed the Altcoin Season
A second 2026 crypto shock for Cowen is how little social media traction spot Bitcoin ETF discussions have generated in contrast with prior cycles.
“ETF mentions on social media… that narrative is sort of negligible in comparison with the dominance that we had with NFTs and DeFi again in 2021.”
Turner argues crypto natives now view exchange-traded funds as adjoining to Traditional Finance (TradFi) quite than a part of the sector. In his view, spot Bitcoin ETFs are the principle offender for the missed altseason blowoff as a result of they absorbed capital that will usually rotate into smaller tokens.
3. Wall Street Ignored the Chaos
Turner remains to be processing how the S&P 500 printed a brand new high on ceasefire headlines whereas an oil provide crunch and Israel-Iran tensions dominated the information cycle. Artificial Intelligence (AI) flows have absorbed the injury, in his view.
“I don’t assume the S&P 500 being so resilient within the face of a lot uncertainty… I feel that… positively wouldn’t have been on my bingo card.”
4. What Was on the Bingo Card
Not all the things in 2026 has shocked the crypto analysts. Turner totally anticipated extra hacks funneling cash to North Korea’s weapons program by means of the (*5*).
“I knew for rattling certain that more cash was going to be misplaced… I wouldn’t be in any respect shocked if the largest hack of the yr remains to be to return.”
Cowen added that counter-trend rallies had been at all times in his midterm yr playbook. February and April sometimes mark lows in years like 2014, 2018, and 2022, he stated, with recent weak spot touchdown later in the summertime round a possible Bank of Japan price hike.
5. The Clarity Act Could Flip the Script
Turner is bearish on near-term crypto laws. He says the Clarity Act has slipped off the congressional calendar for now, however passage would change the image.
“If the Clarity Act passes… within the subsequent few weeks… that will imply that the underside was properly and actually in.”
Until then, each crypto analysts see the present rally as a counter-trend transfer inside a bear market, with the 21-week exponential transferring common (EMA) as the important thing ceiling.
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