CryptoQuant CEO Warns Bitcoin Demand Imbalance
Bitcoin’s restoration is being pushed by perpetual futures merchants, not natural spot consumers, in response to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. On-chain obvious demand stays internet destructive regardless of heavy ETF inflows and company accumulation.
Bitcoin (BTC) trades close to $77,500 after failing to push via $80,000. The divergence between futures positioning and spot flows is turning into the defining function of the April market.
Investors are Betting on Bitcoin Price, Not Buying
Ki Young Ju shared a CryptoQuant chart displaying the expansion in 30-day Bitcoin spot and perpetual futures demand. The purple futures bars have climbed again into constructive territory via April 2026.
The grey spot bars, nevertheless, stay under the zero line for many of the month. Spot demand progress remains to be contracting on a 30-day foundation, whilst worth motion has recovered.
That hole issues as a result of perpetual futures positions could be opened with leverage and unwound simply as rapidly. Spot shopping for, in contrast, requires recent capital to soak up provide on the supply.
ETF Flows and MicroStrategy Buys Have Not Flipped the Signal
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $786 million of their strongest weekly influx since February in mid-April. Inflows continued at $823 million the subsequent week, with BlackRock’s IBIT main demand.
MicroStrategy, the company automobile led by Michael Saylor, additionally purchased 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion in its third-largest single buy. The purchase was made at a mean worth of $74,395, lifting complete holdings to 815,061 BTC.
Despite each flows, on-chain apparent demand has remained internet destructive via April. CryptoQuant information confirmed 30-day obvious demand close to -87,600 BTC earlier within the month.
The hole suggests ETF and Strategy purchases are being matched and exceeded by promoting from current holders and miners.
When Will the Bear Market End?
Ki Young Ju has tracked Bitcoin demand cycles for years. He beforehand declared the cycle theory dead, citing structural rotation between outdated whales and new long-term holders.
His newest framing means that sustainable bottoms type solely when spot and futures demand get better on the similar time. A futures-led rebound with no spot restoration has traditionally resolved via one other leg decrease as leverage unwinds.
The present setup matches that sample. Funding charges have ticked up, open curiosity is rising, however the underlying spot bid stays weak.
Traders at the moment are watching whether or not spot demand, as measured by CryptoQuant, can flip constructive within the coming weeks. A flip would counsel recent capital is lastly absorbing the availability stress flagged in earlier warnings.
If futures positioning continues to guide whereas spot demand stays crimson, the rally faces a well-known danger. Previous mid-cycle bounces in 2025 unwound the identical manner, via compelled liquidation moderately than recent greenback inflows.
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