Here’s How The Bitcoin Price Has Performed In The Last 9 FOMC Meetings And What To Expect Next
The Bitcoin worth has entered another post-FOMC window, and there’s a sample that has turn out to be troublesome to disregard. According to crypto analyst and commentator Ardi, Bitcoin has offered off within the week following eight of the final 9 FOMC conferences, with the common seven-day decline coming in close to 11%.
That historical past is now being examined once more. Bitcoin was buying and selling round $77,000 across the newest Fed determination, and the historical past exhibits a touch of how the price action might resolve within the coming days.
Bitcoin’s Trend In Post-FOMC Weeks
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its April 28-29 assembly on Wednesday, holding rates of interest unchanged at a goal vary of three.50% to three.75%. This determination was already anticipated, and the CME FedWatch had priced in a 99% likelihood of a maintain within the days prior.
Crypto analyst and commentator Ardi published his findings on X alongside a Bitcoin day by day chart throughout May 2025 to late April 2026. His commentary was that Bitcoin has offered off arduous within the week following eight of the final 9 FOMC conferences. The lone exception was May 2025, when BTC had already fallen about 24% from its all-time high earlier than the assembly even started.
Every different assembly produced a post-decision drop. The coverage course was nearly irrelevant, and Bitcoin’s worth dropped whether or not the Fed lower charges, held them, or delivered hawkish commentary.
The chart Ardi shared exhibits the sample visually, with successive pink zones exhibiting the post-FOMC promote home windows throughout September, October, and December 2025, then January and March 2026, every one touchdown as BTC labored its manner from its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025 all the way down to the $60,000s by early February 2026.
An Average Drop Of 11%
Ardi’s knowledge goes additional than merely noting course. The development is that Bitcoin has dropped in eight of the final 9 post-FOMC durations, with a median decline of about 11% over the next week.
Applied to BTC’s worth heading into this week’s assembly, which was buying and selling within the $76,000 to $79,000 vary after a 21% April rally from early-month lows close to $65,000, an 11% drop would return the worth to $70,000 throughout the subsequent week.
The Fed said financial exercise has been increasing at a stable tempo, but additionally pointed to elevated inflation, partly linked to greater international vitality costs. That issues for Bitcoin as a result of the asset stays extremely delicate to liquidity expectations. A transparent path to price cuts would assist danger urge for food, weaken the greenback, and enhance sentiment throughout the crypto business. A cautious Fed setting does the alternative.
On one aspect, Bitcoin had already recovered strongly from its latest lows and was supported by a better April trend. On the opposite aspect, the FOMC assembly locations Bitcoin in a dangerous historic place which may see it return to $70,000 within the coming days.
