The “never sell” Bitcoin treasury trade is seriously starting to crack
On Strategy’s May 5 earnings call, Strategy CEO Phong Le mentioned plainly that “we’ll promote Bitcoin when it is advantageous to the corporate,” with Saylor including that Strategy would “in all probability promote some Bitcoin to fund a dividend simply to inoculate the market.”
Strategy held 818,334 BTC as of May 3, up 22% year-to-date, with a market worth of $64.14 billion.
What the May 5 name established was the general public normalization of BTC gross sales as a company finance lever and the quantitative framework now sitting behind it
Below roughly 1.22x mNAV, administration mentioned promoting BTC and paying dividends may be extra accretive than issuing frequent fairness. Saylor argued that if Bitcoin appreciates by simply 2.3% yearly, Strategy’s present reserve can fund dividends “eternally,” and if Bitcoin appreciates at zero, the reserve can nonetheless assist dividends for 43 years.
The absolutist slogan gave manner to a mannequin wherein corporations that purchase when accretive, concern fairness when accretive, concern preferreds when accretive, and promote BTC when accretive are leveraged treasury-and-credit autos.
Investors initially purchased these corporations as Bitcoin proxies constructed on shortage and permanence. The 1.22x mNAV threshold and the two.3% breakeven price are a extra trustworthy model of that pitch, and a extra difficult one.
When Bitcoin turns into liquidity
Sequans reported first-quarter income down 24.8% 12 months over 12 months to $6.1 million, alongside a $50.5 million working loss. The first quarter included $11.7 million in realized internet losses from Bitcoin gross sales, with proceeds primarily allotted to convertible debt redemption and an ADS buyback program.
As of Mar. 31, it held 1,514 BTC, with 1,217 BTC serving as collateral towards $66.2 million of convertible debt. By Apr. 30, it held 1,114 BTC, with 817 BTC serving as collateral towards $35.9 million of debt due by June 1.
This follows the identical sample as in November 2025, when Sequans offered 970 BTC to redeem 50% of its convertible debt, decreasing that obligation from $189 million to $94.5 million.
Over two quarters, when income falls and debt comes due, Bitcoin turns into operational liquidity. The pledged collateral construction commits BTC that the corporate nominally holds as collateral towards obligations earlier than any sale determination.
Sequans operates at a special scale from Strategy, with a weaker working enterprise behind its treasury position. When BTC has to fund quick debt service, stock logic takes over.
MARA utilized the same logic in March on a bigger scale, promoting 15,133 BTC for roughly $1.1 billion and utilizing the proceeds to repurchase convertible notes, thereby reducing excellent convertible indebtedness by about 30% and capturing roughly $88.1 million in worth.
MARA packaged the transfer as stability sheet optimization pushed by debt construction and financing circumstances, establishing that BTC gross sales can arrive as capital allocation selections unbiased of Bitcoin conviction, and that the related query for treasury corporations is underneath what circumstances promoting turns into the highest-return transfer.
| Company | BTC motion | Size of sale / holdings affect | Why BTC was used | What it indicators |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategy | Publicly normalized potential BTC gross sales | Held 818,334 BTC as of May 3 | Could promote BTC to fund dividends if extra accretive than issuing fairness | BTC is now a part of the corporate-finance toolkit, not only a reserve asset |
| Sequans | Sold BTC whereas underneath working and debt strain | BTC holdings fell from 1,514 on Mar. 31 to 1,114 on Apr. 30 | Debt redemption and ADS buyback | BTC turns into liquidity when income weakens and debt matures |
| MARA | Sold BTC for legal responsibility administration | Sold 15,133 BTC for about $1.1B | Repurchase convertible notes, minimize debt by about 30% | BTC gross sales may be framed as balance-sheet optimization, not simply misery |
What the shift decides
If Bitcoin recovers towards Citi’s 12-month base-case goal of $112,000 or its bull case of $165,000, fairness premia throughout treasury corporations widen, accretive issuance home windows reopen, and bigger contemporary purchases take in tactical BTC gross sales.
Strategy’s 1.22x mNAV threshold fades right into a technical element, and Sequans-type companies that confronted debt stress via a weak Bitcoin market resolve their obligations and maintain unrestricted BTC heading into the following cycle.
If Bitcoin strikes towards Citi’s $58,000 adversarial case, which Standard Chartered has flagged as a possible path to $50,000, corporations trading close to or under NAV lose accretive entry to fairness markets.
In this state of affairs, most well-liked dividend obligations compound, and BTC gross sales transfer from capital administration to stability sheet protection.
The Sequans sample might unfold to any treasury firm that mixed skinny working income with BTC-backed borrowing, the place promoting Bitcoin to service debt whereas pledged collateral shrinks the free float turns into the one obtainable response.
At that time, the company Bitcoin bid turns right into a cycle wherein falling costs set off extra promoting, pushing costs decrease.
The company Bitcoin treasury trade rested on the promise of everlasting accumulation, which made these corporations legible to traders as proxies for Bitcoin.
Once promoting turns into an acknowledged device contained in the mannequin, traders have to worth in debt maturities, collateral necessities, dividend obligations, and the mNAV thresholds at which administration could determine promoting outperforms issuing fairness.
Saylor’s 2.3% appreciation breakeven and 1.22x mNAV threshold are extra trustworthy. The subsequent section of the Bitcoin treasury trade will probably be determined as a lot by financing circumstances as by Bitcoin conviction.
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