Kalshi’s $52 Million UFC Event Had $11.1 Million on Chimaev

Sean Strickland beat Khamzat Chimaev by break up choice Saturday evening in Newark to reclaim the UFC middleweight title. On Kalshi, the battle drew $51.8 million in contract quantity and $19.0 million in precise money exchanged throughout greater than 280,000 trades.

Most of the trades backed Chimaev, together with the largest particular person contracts too. The nearer to the ultimate bell, the extra lopsided it obtained.

Pre-fight, Strickland’s aspect led — 54% to 46% by means of the week main as much as the battle. Once the battle window opened on Saturday evening, Chimaev’s share grew with every passing hour.

When the scorecards got here again break up for Strickland at roughly 12:45 a.m. ET, $11.1 million of trades backing Chimaev settled at zero.

The 20 largest trades had been all on Chimaev

Per commerce tapes, the highest 20 executions amounted to $761,241, all on Chimaev. Thirteen of the twenty fell contained in the battle window from the desk above — between 11:00 p.m. ET on May 9 and the 12:45 a.m. decision on May 10. The single greatest particular person commerce on the whole battle — $68,588 on Chimaev at 11:48 p.m. ET, fifty-six minutes earlier than the contract resolved — went to zero.

Top 20 trades on the battle by commerce dimension:

The second-biggest commerce, $54,624 on Chimaev, was positioned at 12:07 a.m. ET, thirty-seven minutes earlier than decision.

On the Strickland aspect, the largest trades had been a fraction of that. The two largest by money — $13,720 and $10,334 — each hit the tape six seconds after the contract resolved. Those had been closing trades, not cash on Strickland profitable.

The greatest commerce backing Strickland that got here in earlier than the end result was $10,000 at 9:54 p.m. ET — 50,000 contracts at $0.20 every, which paid out $50,000 when Strickland received. An similar $10,000 setup hit the tape earlier the identical night at 6:47 p.m. ET.

Fifteen separate Chimaev trades got here in over $30,000 every. The greatest single commerce on Chimaev was practically seven instances the dimensions of the largest single commerce on Strickland.

$1.24 million traded on Chimaev within the remaining 4 minutes

In the 4 minutes earlier than the contract resolved, Kalshi pricessed $1.24 million backing Chimaev. $282,000 flowed in backing Strickland — a 4.4-to-1 imbalance.

The single largest minute of pro-Chimaev money circulation on the whole seven-day market — $472,000 in sixty seconds — was 12:42 a.m. ET. The contract resolved three minutes later, with Strickland the winner.

Kalshi’s commerce information doesn’t embody account info, so we will’t rely what number of particular individuals had been attempting to promote again Chimaev. In the ultimate 10 minutes, 5,728 trades value $962,000 went onto Chimaev’s aspect; 3,412 trades value $181,000 went the opposite method.

The playing cards got here again 48-47 Strickland, 47-48 Chimaev, 48-47 Strickland — a break up choice and a brand new champion. Right as much as the bell, more cash was going on Chimaev than coming off.

In the subsequent 4 minutes, the market processed 23,418 closing trades. Strickland-side contracts settled at $1.00. Chimaev-side contracts settled at $0.

Seven days of buying and selling, $19.0 million in money, a complete of $52 million in notional quantity:

• $11.1 million on Chimaev. All of it misplaced.
• $7.9 million on Strickland. All of it paid out.

Per yesterday’s numbers, merchants had Strickland as a four-to-one underdog, and the Kalshi commerce tapes continued to run in the identical course.

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