2026 PGA Championship Odds: Outrights, Round Leaders, and Combos at Kalshi and Polymarket
Kalshi PGA Championship-related markets confirmed about $129.6 million in reside quantity as of this morning. The outright winner market accounted for about $110.4 million of that complete, whereas newly lively finishing-position, round-leader, scoring, class, head-to-head, and combo markets added the remaining.
By comparability, Polymarket Global has about $1.37 million in outright occasion quantity, whereas Polymarket US has about $216,000 in DefiRate-tracked outright notional. That’s roughly 80-to-1 in opposition to Polymarket Global and 510-to-1 in opposition to Polymarket US on the identical broad market.
Kalshi and Polymarket Global each carry outright and finishing-position markets, whereas Polymarket US carries the outright and round-leader markets in DefiRate’s present snapshot. Category winners, head-to-heads, combo/exotics, and the deeper scoring props are Kalshi-only.
Scottie Scheffler is the favourite in virtually each market.
2026 PGA Championship odds board
| MARKET | LEADING | PROB | VENUE | VOLUME |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outright winner | ||||
| Outright winner | Scottie Scheffler | 15.5–17.0% | Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US | $110.4M |
| Finishing place | ||||
| Top 5 end | Scottie Scheffler | 48–49% | Kalshi, Polymarket Global | $1.50M |
| Top 10 end | Scottie Scheffler | 57–61% | Kalshi, Polymarket Global | $1.83M |
| Top 20 end | Scottie Scheffler | 75–81% | Kalshi, Polymarket Global | $2.43M |
| Make the minimize | Scottie Scheffler | 92.5% | Kalshi | $369K |
| Round leaders | ||||
| Round 1 chief | Scottie Scheffler | 5.4–6.0% | Kalshi, Polymarket Global, Polymarket US | $10.5M |
| Round 2 chief | Scottie Scheffler on Kalshi; Jon Rahm on Polymarket US | 7.5% Kalshi; 18.2% PMUS | Kalshi, Polymarket US | $34K |
| Round 3 chief | Scottie Scheffler on Kalshi; Hao Li on Polymarket US | 10.0–10.1% Kalshi; 26.4% PMUS | Kalshi, Polymarket US | $14K |
| Winner by participant class | ||||
| USA | Scottie Scheffler | 25.5% | Kalshi | $31K |
| Europe | Rory McIlroy | 11% | Kalshi | $28K |
| LIV | Jon Rahm | 34.5% | Kalshi | $52K |
| Asia-Pacific | Si Woo Kim | 16.5% | Kalshi | $16K |
| College/latest novice | Derek Berg | 11.5% | Kalshi | $70K |
| Head-to-head matchups | ||||
| Young vs DeChambeau | Cameron Young | 58.5% | Kalshi | $23K |
| Scheffler vs McIlroy | Scottie Scheffler | 61.5% | Kalshi | $19K |
| Koepka vs Reed | Brooks Koepka | 52.5% | Kalshi | $15K |
| Combo/exotics | ||||
| Top 20 end basket (7 legs) | Scheffler, McIlroy, Young, Fowler, Fleetwood, Reitan, Hojgaard all Top 20 | — | Kalshi | $3.04M |
| Make-cut basket (18 legs) | Scheffler, McIlroy, DeChambeau, Koepka, Morikawa + 13 others all make minimize | — | Kalshi | $395K |
| Spieth double (2 legs) | Jordan Spieth Top 5 + outright winner | — | Kalshi | $78K |
| Scoring props | ||||
| Winning rating | −13 to −15 | 32.5% | Kalshi | $37K |
| Low spherical of match | Under 66.5 | 99% | Kalshi | $21K |
| Margin of victory | Exactly 1 stroke | 31.5% | Kalshi | $2.1K |
| Tournament props | ||||
| 1+ holes-in-one | Yes | 47.5% | Kalshi, Polymarket Global | $80K |
| Playoff at finish of regulation | Yes | 20.5% | Kalshi | $7.7K |
Leading final result per open market · refreshed May 14, 2026 round 13:05 UTC until in any other case famous.
Source: DefiRate aggregation from Kalshi live market/API data, Polymarket Gamma API data, and Polymarket US API snapshots. Volumes proven are Kalshi quantity until the textual content explicitly identifies Polymarket or Polymarket US.
Scheffler is the favourite in a $100 million outright market
The Kalshi outright winner occasion has cleared about $110.4 million in quantity throughout 156 participant contracts. Scheffler’s particular person YES contract accounts for about $4.41 million of that complete and trades round 16–17%. Polymarket Global and Polymarket US are in the identical broad vary for Scheffler, although the precise tick varies by venue and timestamp. Scheffler’s worth remains to be roughly corresponding to McIlroy and Cameron Young mixed.
- The high 5 by present Kalshi worth seize roughly the high-40s share of the displayed outright chance. The different 151 gamers cut up the rest.
- McIlroy stays close to the highest of the board round 7–8%, however ranks behind the most-traded names by contract quantity at roughly $2.56 million in present Kalshi reside knowledge.
- Jordan Spieth has about $4.20 million on a roughly 1.5–1.9% contract, second-most quantity in the entire market. Spieth wants the PGA Championship, the one main he hasn’t received, to finish the profession Grand Slam.
The identical sample exhibits up additional down the board: Harry Hall has about $1.67 million on a sub-1% contract, Alex Fitzpatrick about $2.00 million, J.J. Spaun about $1.52 million, and Akshay Bhatia about $1.39 million.
Cameron Young stays one of many main contenders by worth at roughly 7%, and additionally one of many highest-volume contracts at about $3.78 million. Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Bryson DeChambeau, and McIlroy are additionally among the many most-traded outright names.
Scheffler received the 2025 PGA at Quail Hollow, has two Masters titles, and enters Aronimink because the world’s top-ranked participant. McIlroy is the back-to-back Masters champion chasing the calendar Grand Slam. Cameron Young stays close to the highest of the market board and has top-10 finishes in six of his final seven begins.
Round 1 chief is the second-biggest market on the board
Scheffler leads Kalshi’s Round 1 market round 5.4–6.0%, the Round 2 market round 7.5%, and the Round 3 market round 10%. Later-round markets are thinner and can differ extra by venue, so these costs needs to be learn as reside market snapshots fairly than a secure cross-platform consensus.
Kalshi and Polymarket Global are broadly aligned on Scheffler as a number one Round 1 title, whereas DefiRate’s newest Polymarket US snapshot differs in later rounds: Jon Rahm led the Round 2 board and Hao Li led the Round 3 board at the time of evaluate, in opposition to Kalshi’s Scheffler-led later-round markets.
The Round 1 chief market on Kalshi has collected about $10.5 million in quantity. Round 2 chief has cleared about $34,000, which ought to choose up after at present’s outcomes and re-price round a a lot narrower set of contenders.
Polymarket lists completely different favorites in finishing-position markets
Kalshi and Polymarket checklist completely different participant units and have completely different liquidity profiles of their top-5, top-10, and top-20 end markets, which suggests the “favourite” on every platform isn’t essentially obtainable, liquid, or priced comparably on the opposite.
Polymarket finishing-position books are a lot thinner than Kalshi’s and can present stale or odd costs in Gamma search, so deal with cross-platform finishing-position leaders as a venue-availability comparability fairly than a clear consensus board:
- Top 5: Kalshi at the moment has Scheffler round 48–49%; Polymarket’s top-5 board needs to be verified at the precise market/order-book stage earlier than naming a definitive chief.
- Top 10: Kalshi has Scheffler round 57–61%; Polymarket’s listed leaders can differ as a result of its participant set and liquidity will not be an identical.
- Top 20: Kalshi has Scheffler round 75–81%; Polymarket’s displayed leaders needs to be handled cautiously the place books are skinny.
Polymarket Global quantity on these finishing-position markets is tiny relative to Kalshi, roughly low-five-figures per market versus about $1.5 million, $1.8 million, and $2.4 million on Kalshi’s top-5, top-10, and top-20 markets.
The make-the-cut market is Kalshi-only on this evaluate. Scheffler trades round 92.5%, and the market has about $369,000 in Kalshi quantity. Aronimink, designed by Donald Ross, defends by way of positional precision fairly than size. Scheffler is among the many finest iron gamers on tour.
The 7-leg combo is the third-biggest PGA market
The 7-leg top-20 end basket — Scheffler, McIlroy, Young, Fowler, Fleetwood, Reitan, Hojgaard — has cleared $3.04 million. That single basket is greater than each particular person finishing-position market on Kalshi besides the highest 20.
Even with Scheffler’s 76% top-20 anchor, the basket requires the six different named gamers to all end inside the highest 20 as properly.
The 18-leg make-cut basket has generated $395,000 in quantity. Named legs embrace DeChambeau, Koepka, Morikawa, Justin Thomas, and Schauffele. If every leg have been impartial at 90%, the basket would worth round 15%, although the precise market can differ as a result of golf outcomes and minimize chances are correlated.
The Spieth double at $78,000 is a 2-leg same-player combo: top-5 end AND outright winner. Since successful a match routinely clears the top-5 leg, the combo resolves identically to a straight Spieth outright. Same wager, completely different ticker.
Winner by participant class
Kalshi’s player-category markets cut up the sphere by nationality, tour, and expertise. Volumes vary from $16,000 to $70,000.
- USA: Scheffler 25.5%. Roughly 1.5x his outright worth; the class excludes the European and LIV fields.
- Europe: McIlroy 11%. The back-to-back Masters champion is priced at simply 11% to win his personal area. The market sees actual competitors from Hatton, Hojgaard, Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, and Rahm.
- LIV: Jon Rahm 34.5%. The thinnest pool of top-line expertise, and Rahm is the consensus choose over DeChambeau and Koepka.
- Asia-Pacific: Si Woo Kim 16.5%. The favourite in a wide-open class.
- College/latest novice: Derek Berg 11.5%. The longest-shot class for a winner. $70,000 in quantity.
Head-to-head matchups
Kalshi’s head-to-head markets carry two-player matchups with costs clustered round 50/50. The largest by quantity:
- Cameron Young over Bryson DeChambeau: 58.5% ($23K). Young has top-10 finishes in six of his final seven begins and stays close to the highest of the PGA Championship market board.
- Scheffler over McIlroy: 61.5% ($19K). Consistent with the outright board.
- Brooks Koepka over Patrick Reed: 52.5% ($15K). A close to coin flip on two LIV gamers in the identical subject.
Scoring and match props
The winning-score market on Kalshi costs −13 to −15 at 32.5%. Aronimink hasn’t hosted a PGA Tour occasion for the reason that 2018 BMW Championship and hasn’t held a significant since 1962. At the 2018 occasion, Keegan Bradley carded a -20, successful in a playoff over Justin Rose.
The low-round market at 99% underneath 66.5 is priced like a near-certainty, although it’s not resolved till the market settles. Margin of victory at precisely 1 stroke (31.5%) is the modal final result. Major championship Sundays hardly ever produce blowouts.
Kalshi and Polymarket Global are in settlement on the hole-in-one market round 47.5%. Volume is sitting round $80,000 on Kalshi, with underneath $300 on Polymarket Global. The playoff chance sits round 20.5%.
How to observe
The 2026 PGA Championship runs Thursday, May 14, by way of Sunday, May 17. ESPN carries Rounds 1 and 2 from 12-8 p.m. ET Thursday and Friday, plus early weekend protection from 10 a.m.-1 p.m. ET Saturday and Sunday. CBS picks up the first broadcast from 1-7 p.m. ET Saturday and Sunday. ESPN+ streams featured teams, featured holes, and morning protection all 4 days. Paramount+ streams the CBS weekend protection.
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