3 Major Warning Signs Suggest Bitcoin’s Bottom Is Still Not In
After dumping to $60,000 in the course of the early February crash, bitcoin rebounded swiftly and jumped to nearly $83,000 every week in the past, posting an enormous 38% enhance. This precipitated many analysts to invest whether or not the bear market had ended.
However, the value motion up to now few days has been contradictory, and BTC slipped to a two-week low of $78,000 yesterday. Analysts usually are not so satisfied now that the underside is in, and listed here are a few of their warning pictures.
P/L at High Levels
Ali Martinez brought up the common dealer’s realized revenue margin, which has reached 17%. He believes it is a “main warning signal” because the metric has hit its highest degree since October 2025, shortly earlier than the huge crash that wiped out over $19 billion in leveraged positions and was the start of a chronic downtrend that culminated (for now) with a 53% drop from $126,000 to $60,000. He defined that for the reason that common investor is now sitting on substantial positive aspects, they is perhaps “seeking to exit.”
“What stands out to me is the historic context. The final time revenue margins hit 17% whereas Bitcoin was testing its 200-day transferring common as resistance was in March 2022.
That particular alignment signaled the precise second the native high was in earlier than the downtrend resumed in earnest.”
Doctor Profit Still Bearish
One of the few analysts who hasn’t modified their perspective on the present market atmosphere is Doctor Profit. His bearish predictions started across the October 2025 peak, and, as his newest put up exhibits, he has been placing his cash the place his mouth is, shorting the cryptocurrency from $120,000.
Moreover, the analyst warned every week in the past that the rebound to $80,000 is perhaps one other bear entice. His new bearish targets are a drop to $50,000 and even decrease if the broader macro circumstances worsen.
In his newest put up, he warned as soon as once more that the majority merchants are “not prepared for what’s coming.” The chart above doubles down on a path towards $50,000.
$BTC: No one is prepared for whats coming , the present standing is as comply with:
1. Short from 120k
2. Long from 71k (30% Closed)
3. Long from 75k (30% Closed)
4. Shorts amassed at 82k (30%)
5. Remaining brief orders energetic (70%)Again, most not prepared for whats coming pic.twitter.com/oB5N0aTK7m
— Doctor Profit (*3*) (@DrProfitCrypto) May 16, 2026
History to Be Invalidated
Rekt Capital additionally weighed in on whether or not BTC might need bottomed throughout this cycle, however appeared extremely skeptical. The analyst noted that if traders consider BTC gained’t go under $60,000, then they need to consider within the following:
– The Bear Market has shortened to simply 1/3 of the standard time it takes for Bitcoin to backside
– That there was a drastic shallowing throughout Bear Market corrections by ~25% (whereas the historic distinction in shallowing throughout Bear Cycles has been as much as ~10%)
– The earlier Bull Market by no means ended, that worth is presently recovering from a Bull Market correction and that the earlier Bull Cycle has lengthened by over 200 days
If bitcoin has certainly bottomed, which doesn’t appear to be the case in keeping with Rekt Capital’s estimations, then the long-standing ideas of BTC market cycles have been invalidated, which is “probabilistically unlikely till confirmed in any other case,” the analyst concluded.
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