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2026 PGA Championship Volume Tops $365M at Kalshi as Aaron Rai Defies Odds

Key Takeaways
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    Kalshi’s 2026 PGA Championship markets topped $365.2M in complete quantity, with the Outright Winner market alone accounting for almost $333.5M.

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    Aaron Rai received the match regardless of drawing simply $8.4M in outright backing, far behind Scottie Scheffler’s $20.1M and Rory McIlroy’s $13.7M.

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    In-game buying and selling dominated exercise, with 76.1% of non-combo quantity occurring through the match and final-day parlays producing $5.3M alone.

Kalshi’s markets for the 2026 PGA Championship topped $365.2 million in quantity throughout all classes, with $9.8 million of that coming from combos or parlays, based on DeFi Rate’s inner market monitoring. The Outright Winner market represented almost $333.5 million of the general complete, though Aaron Rai defied the market together with his first profession main victory.

Scottie Sheffler was the favourite throughout all markets early, however a closing rating of 278 (2-under) put him tied for 14th when all of the rounds had been over. Besides the outright winner, the opposite markets that noticed heavy motion had been prime finisher and end-of-round contracts.

The majority of buying and selling quantity befell through the occasion itself, with 76.1% of the non-combo quantity taking place in-game. The closing day’s quantity was the best of any single day, however might have been increased with extra drama down the stretch.

PGA Championship 2026 Volume by Day







Pre-tournament — $85.0M (23.9%)



Day 1 — $78.0M (21.9%)



Day 2 — $53.7M (15.1%)



Day 3 — $60.2M (16.9%)



Day 4 — $78.5M (22.1%)
PGA Championship 2026 Volume by Day
Period PGA quantity % of Total
Pre-tournament $85,024,116 23.90%
Day 1 $77,970,197 21.90%
Day 2 $53,719,775 15.10%
Day 3 $60,239,730 16.90%
Day 4 $78,501,091 22.10%


Rai defies PGA championship market with over $8 million backing him

Although Rai received his second profession PGA occasion with a 9-under 271, 5 different rivals drew extra quantity than he did within the Outright Winner market. More than $333.5 million was traded at Kalshi within the Outright Winner market from the time the contracts opened till they had been settled, with simply over $8.4 million backing Rai to win outright.

The market favourite, Sheffler, generated over $20.1 million, almost thrice the eventual winner’s quantity. Jon Rahm and Alex Smalley, who tied for second with 6-under 274 totals, represented the third- and fourth-highest quantity within the Outright Winner market, respectively.

There had been others who completed within the prime 10 of the leaderboard and in addition represented the highest 10 in Outright Winner quantity at Kalshi:

  • Rory McIlroy: 4-under 276 to complete tied for seventh; second in quantity at virtually $13.7 million
  • Justin Thomas: 5-under 275 to tie for fourth; fifth in quantity at almost $9 million
  • Matti Schmid: 5-under 275 to tie for fourth; seventh in quantity at over $7.6 million
  • Justin Rose: 3-under 277 to tie for tenth; ninth in quantity at over $8.5 million
  • Ludvig Aberg: 5-under 275 to tie for fourth; tenth in quantity at simply over $8 million

Also buying and selling within the prime 10 within the Outright Winner market was Cameron Young, who was eighth in quantity at virtually $9.7 million however shot an excellent par 280 to tie for twenty sixth place. That represented a disappointing efficiency for Young, who had completed within the prime 10 in six of his earlier seven occasions.

End of Round 3 chief markets and combos additionally drive curiosity

Although the hole was huge, the second-most traded market concerned contracts pertaining to the chief at the tip of the third spherical with virtually $5.5 million in quantity. Only three different markets did seven figures in quantity.

  • Top 20 Finishers: Almost $5.3 million in quantity
  • Top 10 Finishers: Nearly $4.6 million
  • Top 5 Finishers: Just over $4 million

A head-to-head Aberg vs. Rai marketplace for the ultimate spherical drew simply $32,925. That was the second-largest quantity for a head-to-head market, although, with Aberg vs. Rahm for the total match taking the highest spot at $71,129.

Combo contracts represented round $9.8 million of the full occasion quantity. The closing day’s parlays accounted for nearly 55% of the full combo quantity for the whole match.

  • Day 1: $916,668
  • Day 2: $839,464
  • Day 3: $2.2 million
  • Day 4: $5.3 million

The 2026 PGA Tour continues on May 21-24 with The CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. Sheffler is the defending champion in that occasion.

Methodology Note: Defi Rate’s PGA Championship knowledge was sourced straight from Kalshi’s market and commerce tapes, together with all related winner, end, prop, and verified PGA-related combo markets. Daily and tournament-period numbers are from precise Kalshi trades, whereas cumulative totals replicate Kalshi’s full market quantity for the reason that contracts opened.

The submit 2026 PGA Championship Volume Tops $365M at Kalshi as Aaron Rai Defies Odds appeared first on DeFi Rate.

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