Survivor 50 Vote Count Odds Signal Landslide Aubry Win
The Survivor 50 finale airs Wednesday night, and we’ve already coated the Survivor winner odds of every remaining participant at Kalshi. But there’s one other market within the combine with costs value contemplating, as in comparison with the landslide odds within the winner market.
The market in query is Survivor 50 Winner: Vote Count, which has you expect what number of jury votes the ultimate winner could have acquired as soon as it’s all mentioned and carried out.
Setting the stage: Survivor finale
The Survivor 50 Winner: Vote Count market’s present frontrunner is “Above 7.” At the time of writing, it’s at about 84%. “Above 8” is round 49%, with over $30K in quantity within the general market.
The elephant on this explicit room, although, is the scale of the Survivor 50 jury. It’s an enormous season and an enormous forged, so the jury might be fittingly massive at 11 gamers (barring any last-minute twists). Six votes will do it straight-up. If it’s a ultimate three, smaller vote splits can muck up the numbers a bit. For instance, the winner may have 5 votes to their opponents’ 4 and two.
The high probability of Above 7 and Above 8 at a coinflip inform us the predicting public thinks this might be a reasonably decisive vote. And if the present odds are to be believed and Aubry takes the season, I see how that would occur.
Here’s a retrospective of all earlier Survivor seasons and their jury voting outcomes.
Past Survivor ultimate tribal council votes
| Season (12 months) | Winner | Finalists with vote totals | Cast kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| S1 – Borneo (2000) | Richard Hatch | Kelly Wiglesworth (4–3) | New |
| S2 – The Australian Outback (2001) | Tina Wesson | Colby Donaldson (4–3) | New |
| S3 – Africa (2001–02) | Ethan Zohn | Kim Johnson (5–2) | New |
| S4 – Marquesas (2002) | Vecepia Towery | Neleh Dennis (4–3) | New |
| S5 – Thailand (2002) | Brian Heidik | Clay Jordan (4–3) | New |
| S6 – The Amazon (2003) | Jenna Morasca | Matthew von Ertfelda (6–1) | New |
| S7 – Pearl Islands (2003) | Sandra Diaz-Twine | Lillian Morris (6–1) | New |
| S8 – All-Stars (2004) | Amber Brkich | Rob Mariano (4–3) | Returning |
| S9 – Vanuatu (2004) | Chris Daugherty | Twila Tanner (5–2) | New |
| S10 – Palau (2005) | Tom Westman | Katie Gallagher (6–1) | New |
| S11 – Guatemala (2005) | Danni Boatwright | Stephenie LaGrossa (6–1) | Mixed (2 returning) |
| S12 – Panama: Exile Island (2006) | Aras Baskauskas | Danielle DiLorenzo (5–2) | New |
| S13 – Cook Islands (2006) | Yul Kwon | Ozzy Lusth & Becky Lee (5–4–0) | New |
| S14 – Fiji (2007) | Earl Cole | Cassandra Franklin & Dreamz Herd (9–0–0) | New |
| S15 – China (2007) | Todd Herzog | Courtney Yates & Amanda Kimmel (4–2–1) | New |
| S16 – Micronesia (Fans vs. Favorites) (2008) | Parvati Shallow | Amanda Kimmel (5–3) | Mixed (10 returning, 10 new) |
| S17 – Gabon (2008) | Bob Crowley | Susie Smith & Sugar Kiper (4–3–0) | New |
| S18 – Tocantins (2009) | J.T. Thomas | Stephen Fishbach (7–0) | New |
| S19 – Samoa (2009) | Natalie White | Russell Hantz & Mick Trimming (7–2–0) | New |
| S20 – Heroes vs. Villains (2010) | Sandra Diaz-Twine | Parvati Shallow & Russell Hantz (6–3–0) | Returning |
| S21 – Nicaragua (2010) | Fabio Birza | Chase Rice & Matthew “Sash” Lenahan (5–4–0) | New |
| S22 – Redemption Island (2011) | Rob Mariano | Phillip Sheppard & Natalie Tenerelli (8–1–0) | Mixed (2 returning) |
| S23 – South Pacific (2011) | Sophie Clarke | Coach Wade & Albert Destrade (6–3–0) | Mixed (2 returning) |
| S24 – One World (2012) | Kim Spradlin | Sabrina Thompson & Chelsea Meissner (7–2–0) | New |
| S25 – Philippines (2012) | Denise Stapley | Lisa Whelchel & Michael Skupin (6–1–1) | Mixed (3 returning) |
| S26 – Caramoan (Fans vs. Favorites 2) (2013) | John Cochran | Dawn Meehan & Sherri Biethman (8–0–0) | Mixed (10 returning, 10 new) |
| S27 – Blood vs. Water (2013) | Tyson Apostol | Monica Culpepper & Gervase Peterson (7–1–0) | Mixed (10 returning + 10 household) |
| S28 – Cagayan (2014) | Tony Vlachos | Woo Hwang & Kass McQuillen (8–1–0) | New |
| S29 – San Juan del Sur (2014) | Natalie Anderson | Jaclyn Schultz & Missy Payne (5–2–1) | New (pairs of family members) |
| S30 – Worlds Apart (2015) | Mike Holloway | Carolyn Rivera & Will Sims II (6–1–1) | New |
| S31 – Cambodia – Second Chance (2015) | Jeremy Collins | Spencer Bledsoe & Tasha Fox (10–0–0) | Returning |
| S32 – Kaôh Rōng (2016) | Michele Fitzgerald | Aubry Bracco & Tai Trang (5–2–0) | New |
| S33 – Millennials vs. Gen X (2016) | Adam Klein | Hannah Shapiro & Ken McNickle (10–0–0) | New |
| S34 – Game Changers (2017) | Sarah Lacina | Brad Culpepper & Troyzan Robertson (7–3–0) | Returning |
| S35 – Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers (2017) | Ben Driebergen | Chrissy Hofbeck & Ryan Ulrich (5–2–1) | New |
| S36 – Ghost Island (2018) | Wendell Holland | Domenick Abbate & Laurel Johnson (6–5 – tie damaged by Laurel) | New |
| S37 – David vs. Goliath (2018) | Nick Wilson | Angelina Keeley & Mike White (7–3–0) | New |
| S38 – Edge of Extinction (2019) | Chris Underwood | Gavin Whitson & Julie Rosenberg (9–4–0) | Mixed (4 returning) |
| S39 – Island of the Idols (2019) | Tommy Sheehan | Dean Kowalski & Noura Salman (8–2–0) | New (mentors not contestants) |
| S40 – Winners at War (2020) | Tony Vlachos | Natalie Anderson & Michele Fitzgerald (12–4–0) | Returning (all previous winners) |
| S41 (2021) | Erika Casupanan | Deshawn Radden & Xander Hastings (7–1–0) | New |
| S42 (2022) | Maryanne Oketch | Mike Turner & Romeo Escobar (7–1–0) | New |
| S43 (2022) | Mike Gabler | Cassidy Clark & Owen Knight (7–1–0) | New |
| S44 (2023) | Yam Yam Arocho | Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt & Carolyn Wiger (7–1–0) | New |
| S45 (2023) | Dee Valladares | Austin Li Coon & Julie Alley (5–3–0) | New |
| S46 (2024) | Kenzie Petty | Charlie Davis & Ben Katzman (5–3–0) | New |
| S47 (2024) | Rachel LaMont | Sam Phalen & Sue Smey (7–1–0) | New |
| S48 (2025) | Kyle Fraser | Eva Erickson & Joe Hunter (5–2–1) | New |
| S49 (2026) | Savannah Louie | Sophi Balerdi & Sage Ahrens-Nichols (5–2–1) | New |
What do these stats inform us? Historically, landslide unanimous votes are uncommon, having occurred in solely 5 earlier seasons. The most up-to-date was 17 seasons in the past. That doesn’t imply 50 gained’t have a unanimous winner, however the sheer variety of jurors and totally different views on gameplay will make that notably troublesome.
My prediction for vote rely in ultimate tribal council
After a scan of the jury and somewhat time to stew on it, I cautiously favor the “Above 8” market. Should the present Kalshi markets show right, then I see Aubry snatching the overwhelming majority of votes, with Jonathan, ought to he make it, incomes a number of from gamers like Ozzy or Coach. I’m leaving Joe utterly out of the image right here as a result of, whereas he looks as if a pleasant gent, ill-defined claims of “honor” aren’t at all times vote-worthy.
If Rizo or Tiff defy the chances and make it to Final Tribal, that image turns into so much totally different, and I’d name it a a lot nearer race.
We’ll see what occurs on Wednesday!
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