Galaxy Research Alex Thorn Raised CLARITY Act Odds to 75%, Is August the Most Important Month in Crypto History?
Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide analysis Alex Thorn raised his probability estimate for the CLARITY Act changing into legislation in 2026 to 75%, up sharply from the 50/50 name he held as not too long ago as April.
The set off was a 15-9 Senate Banking Committee vote on May 14 that produced the first significant bipartisan sign the invoice has seen.
Two Democrats crossing the aisle doesn’t assure passage. But it moved Thorn’s mannequin by 25 share factors, and that hole is the story.
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How the CLARITY Act Gets to a Signature, and Why 75% Is Not 100%
The mechanism right here is value understanding exactly. The CLARITY Act nonetheless requires 60 Senate flooring votes to clear a filibuster, adopted by House reconciliation and a presidential signature.
Thorn’s up to date timeline, revealed in Galaxy Research’s weekly transient on May 16, runs as follows: Senate Banking and Agriculture committee reconciliation in early June, Senate flooring consideration by mid-June, remaining Senate passage earlier than the finish of June, House reconciliation via July, and a possible Trump signature the week of August 3.
The White House is pushing a extra aggressive July 4 goal. Congress has roughly 9 weeks of Senate flooring time earlier than the August 10 recess, after which substantive laws hardly ever advances in a midterm cycle. That nine-week window is the total margin.
What modified in Thorn’s mannequin was not simply the vote depend, it was the character of the votes. Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland joined all 13 committee Republicans to advance the invoice.
The Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin yield compromise, which resolved a structural dispute over whether or not stablecoin holders may earn curiosity, eliminated the particular danger Thorn had flagged as most probably to kill bipartisan momentum. The bill reaching the Senate floor is now not a theoretical end result, it’s the base case.
Not everyone seems to be at 75%. Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, put passage likelihood at 60%. “In idea, we have now all the pieces we want,” Smith mentioned. “Quite a bit can go flawed.” Polymarket merchants priced 2026 passage at 68% as of May 18, up from 46% at the begin of the month however nonetheless beneath Thorn’s estimate.
Senator Elizabeth Warren’s continued opposition on anti-money-laundering and ethics grounds stays unresolved on the flooring, and the ethics language limiting senior officers’ digital asset holdings has created friction amongst some workplaces searching for carve-outs that would complicate the remaining vote depend.
JUST IN:
Senator Elizabeth Warren says the crypto Clarity Act will “blow up the economic system.”
“It pushes extra of the economic system into crypto!” pic.twitter.com/4LbDiU2hUV
— Watcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru) May 14, 2026
Thorn’s framing situates the stakes past the close to time period. He described the CLARITY Act and the companion GENIUS Act as the form of foundational U.S. crypto laws that has “laid the basis for 100 years of US capital markets dominance.”
Andreessen Horowitz has drawn the similar comparability to the Securities Act of 1933. Whether or not that framing holds, it displays the legislative ambition behind the invoice, and explains why a Senate committee vote is producing market-moving likelihood shifts.
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