Polymarket And Kalshi Are Now Under Congressional Investigation — The Evidence That Triggered It Is Hard To Dismiss
Representative James Comer, Republican of Kentucky and chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, introduced a proper investigation into prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi on May 22 — demanding that the CEOs of each firms clarify how their platforms detect and forestall insider buying and selling, in a probe triggered by a sequence of suspicious trades tied to categorised US navy operations and geopolitical occasions.
Comer, who announced the investigation on CNBC’s Squawk Box, despatched formal letters to the management of each platforms searching for info on how they confirm consumer identities, implement bans on customers from restricted jurisdictions, and determine uncommon buying and selling patterns that might point out exploitation of private info, per CNBC’s reporting. The inquiry marks a major escalation of congressional scrutiny that has been constructing throughout each events for months.
The Evidence That Triggered The Probe
The particular buying and selling patterns that prompted the investigation are troublesome to dismiss as coincidence. A US particular forces soldier was arrested for putting insider trades on Polymarket tied to the US navy incursion into Venezuela that resulted within the seize of President Nicolás Maduro — bets positioned hours earlier than the operation grew to become public data, per The Hill’s reporting.
A separate dealer accrued almost $1 million with a 93% success charge on wagers predicting unannounced US and Israeli operations towards Iran, putting bets hours earlier than strikes in October 2024, June 2025, and February 2026, in keeping with a CNN report cited by Democratic lawmakers in a letter to Comer.
The February 28 incident is essentially the most placing knowledge level. A gaggle of 38 accounts collectively netted greater than $2 million on bets tied to that day’s Iran strikes — with the accounts preloaded with funds the previous week, per the Democratic lawmakers’ letter. On April 7, no less than 50 newly created accounts positioned coordinated bets on a US-Iran ceasefire, some opened minutes earlier than the announcement, per the identical letter.
Polymarket individually reported suspicious exercise throughout almost 50 accounts upfront of the US-Iran ceasefire talks, per on line casino.org’s reporting of the congressional correspondence.
Both Platforms Push Back
Kalshi responded by means of its head of communications, Elisabeth Diana, who mentioned the corporate seems ahead to partaking with the committee and described its protections towards insider buying and selling as complete, per CNBC. Polymarket didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark on the time of publication.
Both platforms introduced up to date guidelines and surveillance instruments in March 2026, limiting politicians from buying and selling on their very own campaigns and barring athletes from sports-related contracts — strikes that preceded however didn’t stop the present congressional escalation.
The investigation lands at a second of peak political sensitivity for prediction markets. Combined buying and selling volumes on Kalshi and Polymarket reached tens of billions of {dollars} in March 2026 alone, per TipRanks. Both platforms rely Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor. And each spent a mixed almost $1 million on federal lobbying in 2025, per CNBC — a Washington presence which will now complicate somewhat than defend their regulatory standing.
This growth marks a pivotal and doubtlessly consequential second for the nascent prediction market sector. A proper congressional investigation with documented proof of military-linked insider buying and selling is a categorically completely different menace than a regulatory inquiry — and the end result might reshape how these platforms function, who can take part, and whether or not the CFTC’s present oversight framework survives intact.
Cover picture from Grok, ETHUSD chart from Tradingview
