‘Avoid Rain at All Costs’: ZachXBT Raises Red Flags Over $8.8B Prediction Market Project
Blockchain detective ZachXBT is warning merchants to avoid Rain Protocol after claiming to have uncovered a sample of suspicious on-chain exercise surrounding the undertaking.
In the newest replace, ZachXBT described the prediction market undertaking, which he mentioned has an $8.8 billion market capitalization and ranks among the many high 15 crypto belongings, as having few customers, restricted product traction, no notable backers, and a staff with little established historical past within the trade.
Links to Failed Crypto Projects
According to his on-chain investigation, wallets tied to the RAIN staff share funding trails with the Data Ownership Protocol (DOP) and TOMI ecosystems through the Gems sizzling pockets and a number of other centralized change deposit addresses, which suggests an overlap between the initiatives.
As proof, ZachXBT highlighted two “mud” transactions that had been despatched to the identical tackle on Oct. 14, 2025. According to his findings, a pockets linked to the RAIN deployer despatched a small switch to the tackle at 3:31:47 p.m. UTC, whereas a pockets he related to the TOMI staff multisig and a centralized change deposit tackle despatched one other mud transaction to that very same vacation spot 36 seconds earlier. He additionally mentioned that the recipient pockets later obtained funds from one other tackle that had beforehand been funded by a DOP multisig.
In a separate transaction path, the investigator mentioned one other pockets transferred funds to an tackle that later used the identical centralized change deposit tackle because the DOP deployer.
ZachXBT additionally claimed RAIN’s market exercise reveals indicators of on-chain value manipulation, and alleged that addresses tied to the deployer used Uniswap V3 liquidity swimming pools whereas routing spot transfers via the Gems sizzling pockets. He additionally took purpose at RAIN’s valuation, whereas highlighting that its decentralized autonomous treasury, Enlivex, a Nasdaq-listed firm, introduced a $212 million treasury technique in November 2025 regardless that, based on him, the undertaking is nowhere close to the size of prediction market platforms like Kalshi or Polymarket.
He cited DefiLlama information exhibiting RAIN has $27.2 million locked on Arbitrum, however mentioned all the quantity is held in its personal illiquid token and that the protocol generates solely about $1 million in annual charges. TOMI, DOP and Sirin Labs initiatives are all linked to controversial Israeli entrepreneur Moshe Hogeg, who was arrested in 2021 and later faced police allegations over a $290 million crypto fraud scheme.
Kraken Rating Cut to B-Tier
ZachXBT mentioned he has lowered his score for crypto change Kraken from S-tier to B-tier over “lack of due diligence” earlier than itemizing what he described as “low-quality, manipulated tokens,” together with M, RAIN, RIVER and RAVE. He additionally criticized Kraken’s public disclosure of its latest safety breach, and added that it didn’t point out compensation for affected customers.
By comparability, he famous that exchanges comparable to Coinbase and Bybit prioritized compensating prospects after their very own safety incidents. ZachXBT additionally raised his bounty to as a lot as $100,000 for insiders who can present paperwork or chat logs associated to alleged centralized change market manipulation schemes.
The publish ‘Avoid Rain at All Costs’: ZachXBT Raises Red Flags Over $8.8B Prediction Market Project appeared first on CryptoPotato.
