JPMorgan Warns Strategy’s Bitcoin Sale Spooked Markets
JPMorgan analysts say Strategy’s final week sale of 32 bitcoin unsettled crypto markets and should pressure Michael Saylor’s firm to rebuild its greenback reserves to revive confidence amongst traders. The warning comes because the financial institution turns extra cautious on crypto, citing weaker capital flows, bitcoin’s break under estimated manufacturing value, and lowered confidence in US crypto laws passing this yr.
In a report titled Alternative Investments Outlook and Strategy, JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou mentioned Strategy’s small bitcoin sale had an outsized signaling impact. The sale was described as “symbolic and voluntary,” supposed to reveal flexibility and dedication to most popular stockholders. But in line with the analysts, it nonetheless “spooked” markets as a result of it raised a central query for holders of each bitcoin and Strategy securities: whether or not the corporate might meet dividend obligations with out promoting extra of its BTC stack.
Strategy Needs Cash To Calm Bitcoin Fears
Strategy, previously MicroStrategy, has grow to be the dominant company bitcoin treasury car below Saylor, making its balance-sheet choices a market-wide sign. JPMorgan mentioned the corporate’s present greenback reserves cowl solely round 6.3 months of dividend funds, a stage the analysts imagine could also be too skinny for traders who’re already watching the agency’s leverage, most popular inventory construction and bitcoin publicity carefully.
“In our opinion a rebuilding of the corporate’s greenback reserves could be wanted to revive confidence and scale back investor issues that the corporate would promote extra bitcoins to cowl dividend funds,” the analysts mentioned.
The concern just isn’t that Strategy has deserted its bitcoin acquisition technique. JPMorgan nonetheless expects the corporate to maintain shopping for BTC. But the agency’s funding combine, dividend burden and restricted money buffer have grow to be extra related after the 32 BTC sale confirmed that bitcoin disposals, nevertheless small, at the moment are a part of the market’s danger calculus.
Strategy created a $1.44 billion US greenback reserve in December to safeguard dividend funds on its preferred stock and service interest on excellent debt. JPMorgan mentioned the corporate now must make clear the way it plans to fulfill roughly $1.7 billion in annual dividend funds, notably if bitcoin stays below strain.
Saylor, in the meantime, signaled the wrong way on Sunday, posting on X: “ time so as to add extra dots.” Strategy at the moment holds 843,706 bitcoin at a mean value of $75,699. At present costs close to $62,000, that place implies a paper lack of roughly $11.5 billion.
JPMorgan mentioned that if Strategy maintains its year-to-date pace of acquisitions, the corporate might purchase round $32 billion of bitcoin in 2026, up from the financial institution’s prior estimate of $30 billion final month. That would evaluate with roughly $22 billion of bitcoin purchases in each 2025 and 2024.
The financial institution’s broader crypto outlook has additionally shifted. In February, JPMorgan was “chubby” and “optimistic” on digital belongings for 2026, anticipating institutional flows to drive the market greater. Now, the analysts have turned cautious, pointing to weaker inflows and a extra unsure regulatory backdrop.
A stronger second half for crypto, they mentioned, depends upon two circumstances: Strategy explaining the way it will cowl dividends, and Congress passing the US crypto market construction invoice, generally known as the Clarity Act. JPMorgan now sees lower than a 50% likelihood of that laws passing this yr, citing a narrowing window forward of the US midterm elections, continued debate round stablecoin yield, and remaining political hurdles.
The analysts additionally famous that bitcoin has spent a lot of the yr under their estimated production cost. Their central estimate fell from $90,000 initially of the yr to $77,000 as hashrate and mining problem declined, earlier than rebounding to round $87,000. Historically, they mentioned, manufacturing value has acted as a “delicate ground” for bitcoin, making the present value close to $62,000 one more reason for warning.
Capital flows inform the same story. JPMorgan estimates whole digital asset inflows at round $22 billion year-to-date, implying an annualized tempo of roughly $52 billion, about half the extent recorded in 2025. The estimate contains crypto fund flows, CME futures positioning, crypto enterprise capital fundraising and company treasury purchases, together with Strategy’s bitcoin acquisitions.
Despite the cautious stance, JPMorgan left room for a reversal in sentiment. The analysts mentioned the present weak spot might show a “bullish contrarian sign going ahead.” Still, they concluded {that a} constructive second half “can be conditional on Strategy clarifying its technique [for] assembly dividend funds of $1.7 billion a yr and on the approval of the US market construction laws for which we now see lower than 50% likelihood.”
At press time, BTC traded at $63,071.
