Why Didn’t Bitcoin Go Higher? Arthur Hayes Blames the AI Spending Frenzy

BTC has been below super strain because it struggles beneath $63,000. Arthur Hayes stated he believes the AI increase has absorbed a good portion of newly created greenback liquidity, which, in line with the BitMEX co-founder, explains why bitcoin has struggled to rally additional regardless of a broader enlargement in cash provide.

In a latest weblog publish, Hayes revisited his long-held perception that crypto markets are largely pushed by fiat liquidity and acknowledged that he could have ignored an necessary issue: the place that liquidity was truly flowing.

Bitcoin vs. AI

Bitcoin ought to have carried out a lot better given the enhance in greenback creation over the previous few years, however as a substitute AI-related investments attracted a bigger share of capital. The industrial launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 was the starting of what Hayes called the “nice AI bubble.” During the similar interval, bitcoin recovered from its post-FTX lows and rose from roughly $15,000 to round $125,000 by October 2025.

However, AI-linked shares considerably outperformed crypto. Hayes cited Nvidia’s roughly 11x enhance in comparison with BTC’s 7x achieve over an identical timeframe. He additionally noticed that AI’s outperformance accelerated from late 2024 onward, whereas bitcoin later declined sharply from its peak.

Hayes stated his earlier fashions centered primarily on the headline quantity of fiat creation and assumed that sufficient of that liquidity would finally discover its means into bitcoin. But this method did not account for the monumental capital calls for created by the AI business.

The former BitMEX CEO described AI as a particularly capital-intensive sector that requires huge investments in knowledge facilities, electrical energy era, specialised chips, and supporting infrastructure. He defined that the speedy enlargement of knowledge middle spending that started in 2024 and accelerated in 2025 created a large want for financing.

Referring to estimates compiled from public disclosures, he stated AI-related corporations issued roughly $1.5 trillion in debt between November 2022 and the current. Of that complete, round $1.3 trillion was raised from 2025 onward as spending on AI infrastructure surged.

Hayes in contrast that determine with development in the US M2 cash provide over the similar interval, which he estimated additionally elevated by round $1.5 trillion. Based on these numbers, he concluded that AI successfully absorbed practically all newly created greenback liquidity. He wrote,

“AI sucked up all created {dollars}.”

More Turbulence Ahead?

The newest issues come as some analysts stay cautious about the cryptocurrency’s near-term outlook. Market analyst Doctor Profit not too long ago said that bitcoin has entered the fifth stage of a six-stage bear market cycle, a section characterised by elevated volatility and emotional stress for traders.

He stated that the latest pullback was not the last backside however a setup for additional turbulence forward. The analyst flagged the $40,000-$48,000 vary as the probably space for BTC’s eventual cycle low, doubtlessly between September and October 2026.

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