Standard Chartered Declares Crypto Winter Over, and Three of Four Metrics Agree
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, thinks the crypto winter is behind us. His view is that the market has already seen its cycle low, which he positioned on the $59,000 Bitcoin touched on June 5.
His name drew large protection, however fewer checked out the place the info stands. BeInCrypto scored it in opposition to 4 crypto winter metrics, and three of them already again him. The one which holds out marginally, and that may very well be crucial one to observe.
The BTC Cycle Low Call and the Catalysts Behind It
That $59,000 low marked a 53% drop from Bitcoin’s $126,000 document in October 2025. Kendrick talked about:
“I feel we have now now seen the low in crypto asset costs for the cycle,” he mentioned.
He additionally added:
“Winter is over. Welcome again to crypto spring.”
His reasoning rests on two pressures easing.
Want extra token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
The first is macro. A G7-linked US-Iran peace deal, if it holds, would cap oil and the US Treasury yields that weigh on danger property. Brent crude even slid towards $80 as deal discuss unfold, loosening that stress. Bitcoin has since recovered to about $66,000.
The second is structural. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, the regulated merchandise that maintain Bitcoin for traders, noticed heavy promoting into the SpaceX IPO. Kendrick factors to holders promoting ETF shares to free money for the itemizing. With SpaceX now buying and selling, that drain appears to be like completed.
Leverage and Sentiment Back the Call
The leverage metric agrees with Kendrick. Average funding, the price merchants pay to carry leveraged positions, sits at adverse 3.9%, which means the market pays you to be lengthy.
That is basic capitulation. Open curiosity, the overall dimension of futures bets, collapsed and has solely simply turned up. Together, that exhibits extra leverage has been flushed, the situation that lets a restoration start.
The sentiment metric, the second metric, leans the identical means. The Fear and Greed Index, which blends volatility and crowd temper into one quantity from zero to 100, reads close to 20, deep in excessive worry. That degree clusters close to market lows. As the indicator frames it, most pessimism has usually marked most alternative, which inserts Kendrick’s view that the worst is behind.
Both describe a market that has stopped breaking down and is beginning to regular.
The Bitcoin Buying That Confirms the Turn
Kendrick’s shopping for affirmation has now landed, and that is the third metric in his favor. He wished contemporary Bitcoin shopping for from Strategy, previously MicroStrategy, after its small 32-BTC sale unsettled the market.
The agency has purchased in back-to-back weeks since. On June 15, it disclosed a 1,587 BTC buy for $100 million at a median of $63,024, lifting its treasury to 846,842 BTC price roughly $56 billion. That adopted a 1,550 BTC buy the week before.
The institutional flows confirmed the opposite half of the shopping for thesis. After June 5 noticed $325 million go away spot Bitcoin ETFs, inflows returned with $85.85 million on June 12 and once more on June 15.
That breaks the outflow streak Kendrick wished ended.
The Valuation Reading That Holds Out
The fourth metric is the one that doesn’t but agree. The Mayer Multiple, present value divided by the 200-day common, sits at 0.85. That is beneath the impartial 1.0 however above the 0.8 that marks deep winter, so the market is affordable with out being washed out. But it’s price noting that the Mayer Multiple could be very near the impartial mark.
The drawdown reads the identical. Bitcoin is down 46.9% from its high, shallower than the 75% to 85% falls that ended previous crypto winters. A milder decline can level to a better flooring, although it may possibly additionally imply the deepest capitulation by no means got here.
Most telling, Bitcoin nonetheless trades beneath its 200-day common, the road that separates a bull regime from a bear one. Until value reclaims it, this metric stays in winter territory whereas the opposite three name for spring.
What Would Turn the Last Metric Green
So is crypto winter really over? Leverage has reset, worry runs deep, Strategy is shopping for once more, and ETF cash is flowing again, all aligning with Kendrick’s view.
The lone holdout is valuation, weighed down by the shallow drawdown and a value nonetheless below the 200-day line. The restoration is effectively underway. It companies up if the inflows maintain and Bitcoin reclaims that 200-day line, the transfer that might flip the ultimate metric in his favor.
The submit Standard Chartered Declares Crypto Winter Over, and Three of Four Metrics Agree appeared first on BeInCrypto.