World Cup Odds: Türkiye Out, USA Through, and Netherlands the Favorite at 58%
The 2026 World Cup group stage is beginning to take form. Türkiye is out after back-to-back defeats, the USA has booked its place in the Round of 32 as Group D winners, and the day’s outcomes have already reshaped how prediction markets worth the event.
Here’s how yesterday performed out and the place the markets are pricing at this time’s matchups throughout Kalshi and Polymarket.
World Cup day 9 recap: USA reaches the knockout stage
The USA gained Group D after a 2-0 win over Australia in Seattle. Folarin Balogun, the star of Team USA’s 4-1 win towards Paraguay on Matchday 1, fizzed a harmful cross into the field that defender Cameron Burgess become his personal web. Alex Freeman doubled the lead with a header simply earlier than half-time. The USMNT is thru to the Round of 32 and will face a third-place workforce from Group B, E, F, I, or J in San Francisco.
That outcome additionally moved the event markets. With a knockout berth secured, merchants at the moment are pricing how deep the run goes relatively than simply whether or not the USA advances. The title market stays a longshot — the USMNT is priced at 5.5% to win the World Cup on Kalshi and 7.9% on Polymarket US.
Türkiye was eliminated after a 1-0 loss to Paraguay. Across its two video games, Türkiye managed a mixed 62 makes an attempt with no single objective — the most photographs with out scoring in any two-match span in World Cup historical past. Paraguay and Australia now meet on Matchday 3 to settle the Group D runner-up spot.
Elsewhere, Brazil beat Haiti 3-0 on two objectives from Matheus Cunha and a strike from in-form winger Vinícius Júnior. Morocco is degree with Brazil on 4 factors atop Group C after a 1-0 win over Scotland.
Key quantity numbers from yesterday’s matchups
| Matchup | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket Global |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA vs. Australia | $56,287,726 | $13,774,578 | $21,916,437 |
| Türkiye vs. Paraguay | $76,186,497 | $21,488,991 | $32,637,787 |
| Brazil vs. Haiti | $60,746,260 | $9,786,299 | $15,224,102 |
| Scotland vs. Morocco | $47,014,817 | $16,560,471 | $21,588,117 |
Source: DeFi Rate aggregation from first-party trade knowledge. Kalshi totals replicate displayed cumulative quantity from Kalshi’s public API; Polymarket US totals replicate displayed cumulative market quantity from Polymarket US public market endpoints; Polymarket Global totals replicate cumulative occasion quantity from Polymarket’s Gamma public API.
Today’s World Cup odds: Four matches throughout Groups E and F
Four matches play out at this time. The Netherlands is the day’s headline favourite at 58% to beat Sweden in Houston, with Germany, Ecuador, and Japan additionally priced as favorites of their respective fixtures. The newest Kalshi and Polymarket costs for each match is under together with moneyline and unfold.
Netherlands vs. Sweden odds and predictions
Prediction markets give the Netherlands a 58% likelihood of beating Sweden in Houston this afternoon (1 p.m. ET), in a matchup between Liverpool teammates Virgil van Dijk and Alexander Isak.
The Netherlands will goal to bounce again after a 2-2 draw with Japan in its opener. Van Dijk and Crysencio Summerville each scored, however Japan capitalized on sloppy Dutch defending to equalize twice. Sweden arrives with momentum after thrashing Tunisia 5-1 on Matchday 1 — Brighton midfielder Yasin Ayari scored twice, with Isak, Viktor Gyökeres, and substitute Mattias Svanberg additionally on track. That win left Sweden prime of Group E, two factors away from the Netherlands and Japan.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Netherlands) | 58% | 58% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 24% | 23% |
| Moneyline (Sweden) | 21% | 21% |
| Spread (Netherlands -1.5) | 34% | 33% |
| Spread (Sweden +1.5) | 68% | 67% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 59% | 60% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 42% | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 61% | 62% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 40% | 38% |
| First Team to Score (Netherlands) | 66% | 63% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 12% | 7% |
| First Team to Score (Sweden) | 36% | 33% |
Markets give Sweden a 21% likelihood of the win, with the draw round 23% to 24%. Polymarket has each groups to attain at 61%, which seems fascinating given it has landed in every of Sweden’s final seven matches and in 5 of the Netherlands’ final seven. Van Dijk stays elite, however he may wrestle to include Isak — they practice collectively every day for Liverpool, so Isak is aware of how you can exploit his weaknesses. Over 2.5 objectives sits at 59%.
Live odds: Netherlands World Cup
Germany vs. Ivory Coast odds and predictions
Germany opened with an emphatic 7-1 win over Curaçao, with Kai Havertz, Florian Wirtz, and Jamal Musiala linking up properly. The protection seemed flimsy at occasions, however Germany’s attacking firepower overwhelmed Curaçao. Die Mannschaft faces Ivory Coast in Toronto this afternoon (4 p.m. ET).
Ivory Coast is degree with Germany on three factors after a 1-0 win over Ecuador. The Elephants have been outplayed for stretches however defended doggedly, and substitute Amad Diallo slotted a late winner. Markets anticipate them to wrestle right here: Germany is priced at 66% on Kalshi and 65% on Polymarket. Both groups to attain sits round 58% to 59%, as Ivory Coast has the tempo to take advantage of Germany’s defensive lapses. Over 2.5 objectives sits at 62%.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Germany) | 65% | 66% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 21% | 21% |
| Moneyline (Ivory Coast) | 16% | 16% |
| Spread (Germany -1.5) | 42% | 42% |
| Spread (Ivory Coast +1.5) | 59% | 58% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 62% | 62% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 38% | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 59% | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 43% | 42% |
| First Team to Score (Germany) | 71% | 71% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 5% | 5% |
| First Team to Score (Ivory Coast) | 30% | 27% |
Live odds: Germany World Cup
Ecuador vs. Curaçao odds and predictions
Curaçao is the smallest nation ever to qualify for the World Cup — an island roughly the measurement of New Orleans with a inhabitants of 158,000 and a skinny participant pool. It battled bravely towards Germany however was outclassed in that 7-1 defeat.
Ecuador was unlucky to lose to Ivory Coast, hitting the submit and crossbar and lacking a number of possibilities earlier than Diallo’s late strike. La Tri ought to fare higher towards a technically restricted Curaçao aspect in Kansas City tonight (8 p.m. ET). Markets provide 87% on Ecuador, with 10% on the draw and 5% on Curaçao. Ecuador to cowl a 2.5-goal unfold is priced at 44% on Kalshi and Polymarket.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Ecuador) | 87% | 87% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 10% | 10% |
| Moneyline (Curaçao) | 5% | 5% |
| Spread (Ecuador -2.5) | 44% | 44% |
| Spread (Curaçao +2.5) | 57% | 56% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | — | 62% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | — | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 32% | 32% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 69% | 68% |
| First Team to Score (Ecuador) | 86% | 86% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 3% |
| First Team to Score (Curaçao) | 14% | 13% |
Live odds: Group E World Cup
Tunisia vs. Japan odds and predictions
Tunisia fired head coach Sabri Lamouchi after the 5-1 loss to Sweden — the earliest firing in World Cup historical past. Bottom of Group E, the Eagles of Carthage can be eradicated with a loss to Japan in Monterey at this time (12 a.m. ET).
Japan is buoyed by its 2-2 draw with the Netherlands. The Samurai Blue struggled with Dutch physicality however their technical high quality earned some extent. Japan is the favourite at 63%, with a Tunisia win at 15% and the draw at 24%. Markets anticipate a lower-scoring recreation: over 2.5 objectives at 46%, below 2.5 at 55%.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Japan) | 63% | 64% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 24% | 24% |
| Moneyline (Tunisia) | 15% | 15% |
| Spread (Japan -1.5) | 36% | 36% |
| Spread (Tunisia +1.5) | 65% | 64% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 46% | 46% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 55% | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 44% | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 57% | 56% |
| First Team to Score (Japan) | 67% | 68% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 11% | 7% |
| First Team to Score (Tunisia) | 30% | 26% |
Live odds: Group F World Cup
Where to trace each World Cup market
Group E kinds itself out at this time whereas Groups C and D head into decisive Matchday 3 fixtures. With the USA already by to the knockout stage and title pricing shifting after each outcome, the hole between Kalshi and Polymarket is just getting extra fascinating to look at.
For dwell World Cup pricing throughout each platforms and each present sign-up provide, see our prediction markets promos. New customers can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
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