Bitcoin $50,000 Crash Odds Hit 65% on Polymarket Amid Sharp Selloff
Polymarket merchants now assign a 65% chance that Bitcoin (BTC) drops to $50,000 this yr, after a sizzling inflation studying despatched the token to its lowest degree since September 2024.
The odds for decrease targets have risen not too long ago, signaling that merchants now see a deeper drop as seemingly.
Hot Inflation Triggers the Selloff
Bitcoin slid to about $58,100 on Thursday, its lowest level since September 2024. The transfer tracked a hotter-than-expected inflation print.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) value index rose 4.1% yr over yr in May 2026.
The core gauge, which excludes meals and vitality, reached 3.4%. The determine additional dented the potential for the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates.
The repricing flushed out leveraged positions throughout exchanges. More than $1.26 billion in crypto positions had been liquidated throughout 209,000 merchants.
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Polymarket Odds Turn Sharply Bearish on Bitcoin
Meanwhile, dealer sentiment additionally shifted. On Polymarket, the chance that Bitcoin falls to $50,000 this year rose to 65%. The nearer $55,000 goal carried a fair increased conviction at 77%.
Both ranges sit nicely beneath Friday’s price near $59,900. That hole exhibits merchants now deal with a deeper slide as the bottom case, not a tail threat.
The bearish tilt dominates the market. The sharpest current transfer got here on the $55,000 line, which jumped about 20 factors.
Still, the board shouldn’t be one-sided. The odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $70,000 this yr have risen to 60%, an indication some merchants count on a rebound as soon as the promoting clears.
Meanwhile, some consultants goal a fair decrease vary. Arthur Hayes sees a $40,000 bottom inside six months. Chinese miner Jiang Zhuoer lands close, pegging the ground at $42,000 to $44,000 in late 2026.
Whether $58,000 marks a flooring could hinge on the Fed’s July assembly. With inflation rising, the case for cuts appears to be like skinny.
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