Weiser Surges in Colorado Governor Primary as Prediction Markets Turn on Bennet
The race to be the Colorado Democratic governor nominee took an attention-grabbing flip final week, and prediction markets are actually leaning onerous towards Attorney General Phil Weiser over Sen. Michael Bennet.
Last week, Bennet held a 73% probability to win on Kalshi earlier than it flipped late in the week, with Weiser now at 78% heading into Tuesday’s election.
That shift traces up with a brand new poll launched final week exhibiting Weiser forward by 9 factors. It additionally displays a broader late-campaign transfer towards the extra progressive lane in a cycle the place New York’s left-flank wins are clearly resonating.
Governor race tightens
As a sitting Senator, Bennet has campaigned practically like an incumbent in the race. And the markets have been treating him as such. The flip final week occurred on each Kalshi and Polymarket, which have volumes of $663,000 and $432,000, respectively.
That makes this really feel much less like a runaway and extra like a race the place merchants lastly determined the momentum had gone Weiser’s approach on the actual second the polls confirmed it.
The ideological cut up is a part of the story too. Weiser has positioned himself to the left of Bennet, which provides him a cleaner lane in the form of energized Democratic main citizens that has been rewarding extra progressive candidates in different states.
The New York outcomes solely make that case stronger, as a result of they confirmed how rapidly a disciplined left coalition can beat a extra establishment-friendly model.
Republican lane and November
The Republican main is far much less attention-grabbing on its face, with Victor Marx, a former U.S. Marine and evangelical minister, priced across the 90% vary and no actual signal of a critical intraparty struggle.
The basic election is the place the true deadness exhibits up, as a result of markets are pricing in the Democrats in the 90s, and polls nonetheless have them favored by roughly 12 factors. That means Colorado appears like a state the place the November final result is already pretty effectively baked in, even when the nomination fights are giving merchants one thing to observe now.
That additionally retains the governor’s main from being only a native story. If Weiser wins, the November race turns into a take a look at of whether or not Democrats can maintain a comparatively secure seat whereas nonetheless surfacing a extra progressive nominee.
If Bennet pulls it again, it suggests the market could have moved too rapidly on the concept that the leftward shift is totally decisive.
Colorado Senate main
Incumbent Sen. John Hickenlooper has pulled away from the sector and is now additionally sitting comfortably in the 90s after a stretch earlier in the 12 months when Julie Gonzales appeared to have an actual path to creating it attention-grabbing.
Traders have clearly determined that former Governor Hickenlooper’s institutional edge and identify recognition are sufficient to separate him from the pack.
That race additionally appears locked for November, which makes the first the one actual choice level. The basic election is just not shaping up as a real contest, so the prediction markets are largely figuring out the nominee fairly than handicapping management of the seat.
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