Mexico vs. Ecuador World Cup Odds: Predictions and Picks for Today’s Game
Brazil, Paraguay, and Morocco grew to become the newest groups to qualify for the World Cup Round of 16 yesterday.
Brazil battled to a 2-1 comeback win in opposition to Japan, whereas Paraguay beat Germany on penalties and Morocco gained one other penalty shootout in opposition to the Netherlands.
They will be a part of Canada within the Round of 16. Several groups will bid to affix them within the subsequent spherical by profitable their video games in the present day.
Prediction markets give Mexico a 44% probability of beating Ecuador in regulation time in the present day. El Tri are buying and selling at 63% to advance to the Round of 16 at Ecuador’s expense, a market that additionally consists of further time and penalties, if essential.
Before that sport will get underway, soccer followers can look ahead to two intriguing video games – Ivory Coast vs. Norway in Dallas, adopted by France vs. Sweden in East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Mexico vs. Ecuador matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 9 p.m. ET on FOX from Estadio Banorte in Mexico City.
Kalshi and Polymarket are providing promos for this sport. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus in your first $20 deposit. Code RATE additionally applies.
Mexico vs. Ecuador, 9 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Mexico vs. Ecuador (*buying and selling out there in 49 states)
Mexico is the favourite to win this sport after cruising via the group stage. El Tri beat South Africa 2-0, South Korea 1-0, and Czechia 3-0, in order that they’re surging with momentum proper now. However, they’ll face a powerful Ecuador workforce led by PSG’s Willian Pacho and Chelsea’s Moisés Caicedo.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Mexico) | 63% | 63% |
| To Advance (Ecuador) | 38% | 37% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Mexico) | 44% | 44% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 34% | 34% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Ecuador) | 24% | 24% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Mexico -1.5) | 19% | 20% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Ecuador +1.5) | 82% | 81% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 1.5) | 60% | 61% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 1.5) | 41% | 40% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 41% | 42% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 60% | 59% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Mexico) | 53% | 54% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 15% | 13% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Ecuador) | 33% | 35% |
How Mexico vs. Ecuador breaks down
Prediction markets anticipate a good, low-scoring sport between Mexico and Ecuador. Over 2.5 targets is priced at simply 32% with Polymarket and Kalshi, as each groups are robust in protection. Mexico is at present on an 11-game unbeaten streak and has solely conceded two targets throughout that stretch. El Tri gained all three of their group stage video games with out conceding a single purpose, whereas Ecuador has elite defenders like Pacho and Arsenal’s Piero Hincapié in its ranks. For that cause, each groups to attain is priced at 41% with Polymarket.
The groups look evenly matched, however house benefit may finally swing this sport in Mexico’s favor. El Tri benefited from robust house assist throughout the group stage, and the environment inside Estadio Banorte will likely be electrical tonight. Prediction websites give Mexico a 63% probability of advancing to the Round of 16, and El Tri are buying and selling at 44% to win the sport in regulation time.
There are just a few statistical quirks for merchants to think about. All three of Ecuador’s group stage video games had been tied at halftime – 0-0 in opposition to Ivory Coast, 0-0 in opposition to Curaçao, and 1-1 in opposition to Germany. The Ecuadorians ended up losing to Ivory Coast and beating Germany, however all three video games had been tight within the first half. Mexico’s final two video games had been additionally tied on the break. A halftime draw is priced at 51% by Polymarket for this sport.
Mexico additionally gained simply 4 nook kicks throughout the whole group stage – three in opposition to South Africa, none in a 1-0 win against South Korea, and one in opposition to Czechia. El Tri don’t commit many males ahead, and they don’t whip many crosses into the field. Under 4.5 corners for Mexico is buying and selling at 60% on Polymarket, which may very well be a well-liked market.
More World Cup odds for in the present day’s matches
There are two extra World Cup matchups going down in the present day. The motion begins with Norway vs. Ivory Coast, and we will then look ahead to a high-profile conflict between France and Sweden.
Ivory Coast vs. Norway, 1 p.m. ET
Norway is the favourite to advance to the Round of 16 at Ivory Coast’s expense. This is the primary sport of the day. It takes place at 1 p.m. ET in Dallas, so the gamers might want to cope with fierce warmth.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Ivory Coast vs. Norway (*buying and selling out there in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Ivory Coast) | 37% | 36% |
| To Advance (Norway) | 64% | 64% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Ivory Coast) | 27% | 27% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 29% | 28% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Norway) | 46% | 47% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Ivory Coast +1.5) | 77% | 76% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Norway -1.5) | 24% | 25% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 51% | 52% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 50% | 49% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 59% | 58% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 42% | 43% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Ivory Coast) | 39% | 39% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 8% | 7% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Norway) | 56% | 54% |
Norway started its World Cup marketing campaign by thrashing Iraq 4-1. The Norwegians then battled to a 3-2 victory over Senegal. Man City striker Erling Haaland scored twice in each of these video games, and captain Martin Ødegaard pulled the strings with aplomb in midfield. Manager Ståle Solbakken then determined to relaxation 10 of his common starters for the sport in opposition to France earlier this week, and Norway’s reserves duly misplaced 4-1.
However, the Norwegians certified for the Round of 32 as runners-up of their group, and gamers like Haaland and Ødegaard ought to now be contemporary for this sport. Haaland is buying and selling at 53% with Kalshi to attain. He has scored a purpose each 45 minutes at this event, in order that may very well be an fascinating possibility.
Ivory Coast did nicely to clinch the runner-up spot in its group. The Elephants beat Ecuador 1-0, misplaced 2-1 to Germany, and then beat Curaçao 2-0. They have a lot of fast, harmful forwards, together with Yan Diomande, Amad Diallo, and Nicolas Pépé, so each groups to attain is priced at 58% with Kalshi.
The warmth will likely be an element, as it’s anticipated to succeed in 96 levels in Dallas this afternoon. That would possibly make life troublesome for the Norwegians, who’re accustomed to a a lot colder local weather, however prediction markets nonetheless assume they’ll have sufficient high quality to advance to the Round of 16.
France vs. Sweden, 5 p.m. ET
The motion then shifts to MetLife Stadium, the place France will tackle Sweden. France is the clear favourite to win the World Cup, priced at 28.9% with Kalshi and 28.2% with Polymarket. However, Les Bleus might want to get previous Sweden first, and they’ll must discover a solution to include Swedish strikers Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on France vs. Sweden (*buying and selling out there in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (France) | 89% | 88% |
| To Advance (Sweden) | 12% | 12% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (France) | 77% | 78% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 16% | 16% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Sweden) | 8% | 8% |
| Regulation Time Spread (France -1.5) | 54% | 55% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Sweden +1.5) | 47% | 46% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 45% | 46% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 56% | 55% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 54% | 55% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 47% | 46% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (France) | 77% | 77% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 4% | 3% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Sweden) | 20% | 21% |
France is the clear favourite to win the World Cup after sweeping apart Norway, Senegal, and Iraq throughout the group stage. Star forwards Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé have each scored 4 targets already, whereas the likes of Michael Olise, Désiré Doué, and Bradley Barcola are additionally in superb kind.
Les Bleus stored just one clear sheet within the group stage, however they scored 4 occasions in opposition to Norway, three in opposition to Iraq, and three in opposition to Senegal. Kalshi costs France at 50% to attain over 2.5 targets on this sport. That may very well be fascinating, as Sweden’s protection has been leaking targets at this event.
The Swedes started their marketing campaign with a formidable 5-1 win against Tunisia, however they then misplaced 5-1 to the Netherlands and drew 1-1 with Japan. They may wrestle to include the likes of Mbappé and Dembélé on this sport. However, they’ve harmful forwards of their ranks, together with Liverpool’s Isak, Arsenal’s Gyökeres, and Newcastle’s Anthony Elanga, so each groups to attain seems fascinating at 54% with Polymarket. Markets value France at 77% to win in regulation time, however you possibly can unlock extra worth by backing Les Bleus to cowl a 1.5-goal unfold.
Knockout stage continues tomorrow
Three groups will ebook their locations within the World Cup Round of 16 in the present day. The knockout stage continues with three extra video games tomorrow:
- England vs. DR Congo
- Belgium vs. Senegal
- USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
For dwell World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all present sign-up affords, see our prediction markets promos. New customers can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
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