Wall Street is selling Bitcoin but the old holders are now buying it back
Glassnode’s newest Week Onchain report reveals that roughly 10.83 million BTC are now in the crimson, towards 9.22 million nonetheless in revenue.
Loss-making provide now accounts for roughly 54% of the measured whole, in contrast with 46% nonetheless in revenue, that means underwater cash exceed worthwhile cash by about 1.61 million BTC.
Glassnode describes this as considered one of the sharpest deteriorations in investor profitability since the present bull market started, a threshold with actual psychological weight.
Crossing it earlier than has coincided with real capitulation amongst newer consumers, the sort of stress that shapes a structural drawdown.
Underwater holders are the ones most vulnerable to selling into panic or exiting near breakeven once the price recovers, which retains a layer of resistance above the market.
Yet those self same cash can migrate to higher-conviction consumers if affected person capital is prepared to soak up them, and Glassnode’s knowledge reveals precisely that sort of purchaser has begun to point out up.
The vendor profile is already altering beneath that stress, as Glassnode says long-term holders have began rebuilding positions, a reversal from an prolonged stretch of distribution, with internet place change back in optimistic territory.
The tempo stays modest, effectively wanting the buying waves seen in prior accumulation cycles, but the course has turned. The first signal of a backside typically reveals up right here, in skilled holders deciding a drawdown is value buying, effectively earlier than price itself confirms something.
Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score climbed throughout a number of cohorts this week, with the strongest readings amongst wallets holding lower than 1 BTC and entities holding 100 to 1,000 BTC.
Wallets in the 1,000-to-10,000 BTC vary additionally turned internet consumers. Bitcoin’s quiet bid is spreading throughout the complete possession ladder, from the smallest wallets to mid-sized entities.
US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs stay in sustained internet outflow territory, and that selling strain has persevered at the same time as on-chain conviction builds in the wrong way. The ETF story explains why the value stays weak, whereas the on-chain story explains who is taking the different aspect.
| Market layer | Current sign | What it means | Article implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETF traders | Sustained internet outflows | Regulated wrappers are nonetheless de-risking | Explains why value stays weak |
| Long-term holders | Net place change back in optimistic territory | Experienced holders are rebuilding publicity | Suggests provide is transferring to affected person fingers |
| Small wallets | Strong accumulation amongst sub-1 BTC wallets | Retail-sized holders are buying the drawdown | The bid is not solely institutional or whale-driven |
| Mid-sized entities | Strong buying amongst 100–1,000 BTC entities | Larger on-chain holders are additionally absorbing provide | Accumulation is broadening throughout cohorts |
| Large wallets | 1,000–10,000 BTC wallets turned internet consumers | Bigger holders are not solely distributing | Confirms the vendor profile is altering |
| Spot order books | Coinbase and Binance shifting towards bids | Buyers are inserting liquidity beneath spot | A base can kind even whereas value seems weak |
Coinbase and Binance each present books shifting towards the bid, with consumers including liquidity beneath spot. That bid seems affected person, which is why the value can nonetheless look weak at the same time as a base begins to kind beneath it.
Hyperliquid merchants maintain an extended bias at the highest stage Glassnode has tracked, utilizing leveraged publicity to guess on a bounce earlier than spot conviction is totally confirmed.
The money market is attempting to construct a flooring, whereas the derivatives market is attempting to get there first.
Options merchants are already paying up for defense: the 14-day put-to-call quantity ratio climbed above 1.0, its highest studying in a 12 months. Implied volatility is climbing too, up from depressed ranges, although Glassnode stops wanting calling it a panic studying.
The market carries sufficient concern to start bottoming, although the concern wanted to substantiate a completed capitulation should still be constructing.
Put collectively, the sample seems uncommon for a bottoming course of, and Bitcoin could also be discovering a flooring via an uncommon mechanism: ETF traders are selling whereas stronger, extra affected person fingers soak up the exit in actual time.
Glassnode frames it as an early, still-developing bottoming course of and flags {that a} remaining capitulation-driven volatility spike stays potential.
Long-term holders buying additionally trails the scale of prior accumulation waves by a large margin, holding the restoration in accumulation fragile.
Bitcoin can in all probability backside with out ETF inflows returning, so long as outflows sluggish sufficient to cease overpowering on-chain accumulation, and the crowded lengthy positioning on Hyperliquid unwinds progressively via value power.
| Scenario | What occurs subsequent | Confirmation sign | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull case: managed migration | ETF outflows sluggish whereas long-term holders and pockets cohorts hold accumulating | Bid-heavy order books soak up underwater provide; Hyperliquid longs resolve via a bounce | The switch section turns into the backside |
| Base case: fragile bottoming | Accumulation continues, but ETF outflows and underwater provide hold rallies capped | BTC chops sideways whereas loss provide stops increasing | Bitcoin builds a base, but restoration stays uneven |
| Bear case: remaining capitulation | Crowded Hyperliquid longs get flushed whereas ETF outflows persist | Implied volatility spikes and underwater holders capitulate decrease | Supply nonetheless transfers to stronger fingers, but via a sharper washout |
| Failure case: accumulation fades | Long-term holder buying slows and cohort accumulation narrows | Bid-heavy order books disappear; ETF outflows hold dominating | The market was pausing inside a broader drawdown, not bottoming |
How this performs out
In the bull case, ETF outflows continue but slow, whereas long-term holders and broader pockets cohorts proceed to build up via the summer season.
Bid-heavy order books hold absorbing provide from newer, underwater holders, and the aggressive Hyperliquid lengthy positioning resolves via a real bounce.
Bitcoin’s correction turns into a managed migration, from ETF sellers and short-term holders into the fingers of affected person on-chain capital, and the switch section turns into the backside.
In the bear case, the crowded lengthy positioning in Hyperliquid will get flushed, ETF outflows persist, and underwater holders capitulate at decrease costs.
Implied volatility spikes towards real panic ranges, and long-term holder accumulation slows as the drawdown deepens. Bitcoin nonetheless finally ends up transferring to stronger fingers, but via one remaining capitulation occasion.
Bitcoin’s subsequent backside could start with an uncommon sequence: establishments leaving, weaker holders capitulating, and stronger fingers quietly taking the different aspect. A backside begins as a turnover in who owns the provide, effectively earlier than it reveals up in value.
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