45,000 Polymarket Markets Recorded Zero Trading Volume, CNBC Analysis Shows
Roughly 70% of all closed markets on Polymarket recorded below $10,000 in reported buying and selling quantity between 2021 and the tip of May 2026, a CNBC evaluation discovered.
The findings land as prediction markets submit surging quantity, pushed by the 2026 FIFA World Cup. That hole reveals how a small group of marquee contracts, somewhat than the broader platform, captures many of the cash.
Most Polymarket Closed Markets Traded Under $10,000
CNBC pulled closed-market information from Polymarket’s Gamma API, which counts notional quantity on either side of every commerce. The distribution got here out closely skewed.
Fewer than 10% of closed markets drew between $100,000 and $1 million in reported quantity. More than 45,000 markets, shut to five% of the whole, confirmed no reported quantity in any respect.
Follow us on X to get the newest information because it occurs
Bots dominate the skinny finish. Joshua Della Vedova, a enterprise professor on the University of San Diego, discovered that greater than 80% of the quantity in sub-$10,000 markets got here from bots.
He outlined bots as wallets that make greater than 50 trades a day or greater than 1,000 in whole. By his estimate, they earned roughly $1.2 million in markets below $10,000, however about $50.5 million within the $1 million to $10 million vary.
That tier made up 38% of whole bot revenue. Markets above $10 million added a additional $35.1 million.
“They are making a living throughout all markets,” Della Vedova stated. “(Bots) become profitable per transaction, and due to this fact they like to commerce in these bigger markets, however they’ll commerce throughout the entire spectrum.”
The report added that Kalshi also recorded a significant variety of shallow markets, primarily based on an evaluation of the on-chain information from Dune. However, not like Polymarket’s Gamma API, Kalshi’s notional quantity figures on Dune account for just one facet of every commerce.
World Cup Bets Fuel Prediction Market Growth
The thin-market image contrasts with headline development. Weekly World Cup volume across major venues climbed from $65 million within the week of June 1 to $5.4 billion by June 29, in response to CryptoRank information.
Volume peaked at $5.6 billion within the week of June 22. Kalshi led the climb, displaying how main sports activities occasions can rapidly drive demand for prediction buying and selling.
That development sits alongside the skinny tail. The cash concentrates in a small set of high-profile contracts, whereas tens of hundreds of markets see virtually no exercise.
BeInCrypto has reached out to each Polymarket and Kalshi for remark.
Subscribe to our YouTube channel to observe leaders and journalists present skilled insights
The submit 45,000 Polymarket Markets Recorded Zero Trading Volume, CNBC Analysis Shows appeared first on BeInCrypto.
