World Cup Round of 16 Odds: Predictions and Picks for Weekend’s Games
Soccer followers can sit up for 4 World Cup Round of 16 video games this weekend. Canada and Morocco will get the motion underway once they conflict in Texas this afternoon.
Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, and Ousmane Dembélé will then attempt to lead France to victory over Paraguay in Philadelphia (5 p.m. ET, FOX). There are two video games happening tomorrow: Brazil vs. Norway at MetLife Stadium (4 p.m. ET, FOX), adopted by Mexico vs. England at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City (8 p.m. ET, FOX).
Prediction markets give Canada an 18% probability of beating Morocco in regulation time at the moment. Canada is priced at 28% to advance to the quarterfinals at Morocco’s expense, a market that additionally consists of additional time and penalties, if mandatory.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Canada vs. Morocco matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET on FOX from NRG Stadium in Houston.
Kalshi and Polymarket are providing promos for these video games. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus in your first $20 deposit. Code RATE additionally applies.
Canada vs. Morocco, 1 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Canada vs. Morocco (*buying and selling obtainable in 49 states)
Prediction markets anticipate Morocco to safe a slender win towards Canada this afternoon. The Atlas Lions are priced at 56% to win the sport in regulation time, however they’re solely buying and selling at 29% to cowl a 1.5-goal unfold.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Canada) | 28% | 28% |
| To Advance (Morocco) | 73% | 72% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Canada) | 17% | 18% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 29% | 28% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Morocco) | 56% | 56% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Canada +1.5) | 73% | 72% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Morocco -1.5) | 28% | 29% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 43% | 44% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 58% | 57% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 50% | 51% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 51% | 50% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Canada) | 31% | 30% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 9% | 10% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Morocco) | 63% | 63% |
How Canada vs. Morocco breaks down
Morocco will purpose to increase its unbeaten streak to 34 video games when it takes on Canada within the World Cup Round of 16. This is now acquainted territory for the Atlas Lions, who defied the chances to succeed in the semifinals of the 2022 World Cup. They’ve arguably improved within the ensuing years, and they’ve excelled at this event.
Their marketing campaign started with a powerful 1-1 draw against Brazil. Morocco then secured back-to-back wins towards Scotland and Haiti, which teed up a Round of 32 conflict with the Netherlands. The recreation completed 1-1 after additional time, and Morocco received the following penalty shootout. It’s now as much as No. 6 within the FIFA world rankings, 24 locations above Canada.
The Canadians may solely end second of their group after dropping to Switzerland on Matchday 3. They bounced again with a 1-0 victory over South Africa within the Round of 32, courtesy of Stephen Eustáquio’s late strike. Captain Alphonso Davies lastly returned from damage in that recreation, which supplies Canada an enormous enhance.
However, merchants really feel that this may very well be the top of the street for the CanMNT. Jesse Marsch’s males are priced at simply 28% to advance to the quarterfinals, which displays a presumed gulf in high quality between these groups. One attention-grabbing possibility may very well be each groups to attain, because the Canadians have discovered the again of the online in all of their video games thus far at this event. It’s buying and selling at 51% with Polymarket.
More World Cup odds for this weekend’s matches
There are three extra World Cup matchups happening this weekend. We’ve explored how Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing them.
Paraguay vs. France, 5 p.m. ET on Saturday
Prediction markets anticipate France to comb Paraguay apart this night. Les Bleus are the clear favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, and they need to have an excessive amount of firepower for Paraguay to deal with.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Paraguay vs. France (*buying and selling obtainable in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Paraguay) | 8% | 8% |
| To Advance (France) | 93% | 92% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Paraguay) | 5% | 5% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 13% | 13% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (France) | 84% | 84% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Paraguay +1.5) | 40% | 39% |
| Regulation Time Spread (France -1.5) | 61% | 62% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 60% | 60% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 41% | 41% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 39% | 39% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 62% | 62% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Paraguay) | 14% | 12% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 4.2% | 5% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (France) | 84% | 84% |
France is priced at 92% to advance to the quarterfinals and 84% to win this recreation in regulation time. You can unlock extra worth by backing France to cowl a 1.5-goal unfold, which is priced at 61% with Polymarket. That may very well be fashionable, as Les Bleus have received all of their 2026 World Cup video games by a margin of no less than two objectives.
They started with a 3-1 win towards Senegal, earlier than beating Iraq 3-0 and Norway 4-1. France then earned (*16*) within the Round of 32. Mbappé has scored six objectives in 4 video games at this event, whereas Dembélé has 4 objectives and Olise has 5 assists. They’re all in superb type proper now, so France ought to have sufficient firepower to beat Paraguay.
La Albirroja started their marketing campaign with a heavy 4-1 defeat to the USA, however they bounced again by beating Türkiye and drawing with Australia. They have been heavy underdogs for their Round of 32 recreation towards Germany, however they battled to a 1-1 draw and received the following penalty shootout.
Can lightning strike twice? Traders don’t suppose so, as they solely give Paraguay a 5% probability of profitable this recreation in regulation time. Mbappé is a much better finisher than any of Germany’s forwards, and he’s priced at 68% with Kalshi to attain on this recreation. Olise is priced at 37% to offer one other help.
Brazil vs. Norway, 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
This guarantees to be an entertaining recreation between two high-scoring groups. It may even pit two fierce rivals towards each other: Man City’s Erling Haaland and Arsenal’s Gabriel Magalhães.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Brazil vs. Norway (*buying and selling obtainable in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Brazil) | 68% | 66% |
| To Advance (Norway) | 33% | 34% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Brazil) | 54% | 54% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 27% | 26% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Norway) | 21% | 21% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Brazil -1.5) | 30% | 30% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Norway +1.5) | 71% | 71% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 54% | 56% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 47% | 45% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 59% | 60% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 42% | 41% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Brazil) | 60% | 60% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 5% | 3% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Norway) | 37% | 39% |
Over 2.5 objectives has paid off in all 4 of Norway’s video games thus far. The Norwegians beat Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2, earlier than dropping 4-1 to France. They rested a number of key gamers in that recreation, so the likes of Haaland and Martin Ødegaard have been recent to face Ivory Coast within the Round of 32. Haaland scored the profitable aim in a 2-1 victory, taking his tally to 5 objectives in three video games at this event.
He will now resume his rivalry with Gabriel. They’ve engaged in a number of titanic battles as City and Arsenal have fought for the Premier League title lately. Haaland has scored six objectives in 11 video games towards Arsenal, so will probably be fascinating to see if he can replicate that type for Norway.
Over 2.5 objectives has additionally paid off in Brazil’s final three video games: a 3-0 win towards Scotland, a 3-0 win towards Haiti, and a 2-1 victory over Japan within the Round of 32. Vinícius Júnior was quiet in that recreation, however he has scored 4 objectives at this event, and he may trigger loads of issues for this leaky Norwegian protection.
Kalshi is ready at 56% on over 2.5 objectives, whereas each groups to attain is buying and selling at 59% with Polymarket. Both markets may show fashionable. These groups are stacked with elite forwards, however Brazil appears to be like stronger in protection and midfield, so the Samba Boys are priced at 66% with Kalshi to advance and 54% to win in regulation time.
Mexico vs. England, 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
Kalshi merchants view this recreation as near a coin flip, as they provide Mexico a 48% probability of advancing to the following spherical, with England at 52%. Polymarket merchants give England a slight edge, however they’re anticipating a decent, cagey recreation.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Mexico vs. England (*buying and selling obtainable in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Mexico) | 47% | 48% |
| To Advance (England) | 54% | 52% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Mexico) | 31% | 32% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 31% | 30% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (England) | 40% | 39% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Mexico +1.5) | 83% | 83% |
| Regulation Time Spread (England -1.5) | 18% | 18% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 40% | 41% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 61% | 60% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 49% | 50% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 52% | 51% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Mexico) | 45% | 44% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 10% | 12% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (England) | 48% | 46% |
Mexico prolonged its unbeaten run to 12 video games by beating Ecuador 2-0 within the World Cup Round of 32. El Tri have solely conceded two objectives throughout that stretch. They’ve received all 4 of their video games thus far at this event, with out letting in a single aim, so the gamers are surging with momentum proper now.
This recreation will happen in Mexico City, which is 7,350 toes above sea degree. England supervisor Thomas Tuchel claims this places his group at a huge disadvantage, because the Three Lions received’t have time to regulate, and they aren’t allowed to reach simply earlier than the sport. They’ll additionally must cope with a hostile crowd at Estadio Azteca, the place Mexico hasn’t misplaced since 2013.
However, England continues to be the favourite to win in regulation time, because it has superior gamers in nearly each division. If the likes of Harry Kane, Declan Rice, and Jude Bellingham are at their finest, they’ll beat any group on the earth. Kane has scored 5 instances at this event, and he’s priced at 41% with Kalshi to search out the again of the online on Sunday.
England can also be unbeaten in 12 aggressive matches since Tuchel took the reins, so it’s simple to see why merchants anticipate such a detailed recreation. Mexico’s defensive report is excellent, however El Tri haven’t confronted a striker like Kane but at this event. England’s protection has been shambolic at instances throughout this World Cup, so each groups to attain may very well be an attention-grabbing contrarian play at 48% with Polymarket.
Round of 16 continues on Monday
The World Cup Round of 16 continues with two eagerly anticipated video games on Monday:
- Portugal vs. Spain
- USA vs. Belgium
We’ll preview each video games, with the newest odds, on Monday. For dwell World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all present sign-up gives, see our prediction markets promos. New customers can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
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