UFC Fight Night Du Plessis vs. Usman Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Kalshi vs. Polymarket
UFC Fight Night Oklahoma City lands at Paycom Center on July 18 with a middleweight scrap for the principle occasion, with former champion Dricus Du Plessis returning to the Octagon to tackle Kamaru Usman.
The essential card will get underway at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with early prelims kicking off the motion at 5 p.m. ET.
Kalshi and Polymarket merchants are lining up nearly identically throughout 5 main-card bouts, with just one true 50-50 coin flip on the whole slate.
Here’s your full fight-by-fight breakdown via the lens of Kalshi and Polymarket, the 2 platforms redefining how followers have interaction with MMA outcomes.
UFC Fight Night card preview: Kalshi vs. Polymarket markets
Main Event — Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman
Dricus Du Plessis enters because the clear favourite within the middleweight headliner, with Kalshi pricing him at 67¢ and Polymarket at 66¢, reflecting his physicality, quantity placing, and championship pedigree over the previous welterweight king. Usman sits at 33-35¢ throughout the 2 platforms. The method-of-victory markets inform the true story: Du Plessis by KO/TKO (32-35¢) almost doubles Usman’s ending worth (15-17¢), suggesting merchants see the South African’s energy and cardio because the difference-maker in later rounds.
With resolution odds sitting simply above 50¢ on each platforms, this reads as a grinding five-round affair the place Usman’s wrestling credentials may nonetheless drag the champ into deep water, however the market consensus favors Du Plessis discovering a end earlier than the judges become involved.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Dricus Du Plessis | 66% / 66¢ | 67% / 67¢ |
| Kamaru Usman | 35% / 35¢ | 33% / 33¢ |
| Dricus Du Plessis by KO/TKO | 35% / 35¢ | 32% / 32¢ |
| Kamaru Usman by KO/TKO | 17% / 17¢ | 15% / 15¢ |
| Fight gained by resolution | 53% / 53¢ | 52% / 52¢ |
Co-Main — Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
The co-main is the widest hole on the cardboard, with Christian Leroy Duncan a heavy 78¢ favourite on each Kalshi and Polymarket in opposition to the 42-year-old veteran Jared Cannonier, who’s dropped three of his final 4 bouts in opposition to elite competitors. The age and sturdiness narrative is exhibiting up immediately within the pricing. Duncan’s KO/TKO markets (37-40¢) dwarf Cannonier’s (13-17¢), and submission odds have widened to 21¢ on Kalshi, hinting that merchants see a number of ending paths for the youthful Englishman.
Duncan expects “the perfect model of Cannonier” to indicate up, which suggests his camp isn’t sleeping on the expertise hole, however the market clearly believes energy and youth win out right here.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 23% / 23¢ | 23% / 23¢ |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 78% / 78¢ | 78% / 78¢ |
| Jared Cannonier by KO/TKO | 13% / 13¢ | 15% / 15¢ |
| Christian Leroy Duncan by KO/TKO | 40% / 40¢ | 36% / 36¢ |
| Fight gained by resolution | 53% / 53¢ | 57% / 57¢ |
| Fight gained by submission | 13% / 13¢ | 21% / 21¢ |
Chase Hooper vs. Mitch Ramirez
Chase Hooper is a heavy favourite over Mitch Ramirez, with Polymarket at 78¢ and Kalshi at 76¢, giving him roughly a three-in-four implied probability of victory. Ramirez is priced at 23¢-25¢, making him one of many greater underdogs on the cardboard regardless of the light-weight battle sitting outdoors the marquee highlight.
Submission is definitely probably the most closely backed ending methodology right here at 41¢-42¢, a nod to Hooper’s elite jiu-jitsu recreation. His KO/TKO quantity sits at 18¢-25¢, and resolution trails at 29¢-30¢, telling merchants that if this battle goes lengthy, Hooper’s grappling menace is anticipated to be the deciding issue somewhat than a placing battle.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 78% / 78¢ | 76% / 76¢ |
| Mitch Ramirez | 23% / 23¢ | 25% / 25¢ |
| Chase Hooper by KO/TKO | 25% / 25¢ | 18% / 18¢ |
| Mitch Ramirez by KO/TKO | 16% / 16¢ | 17% / 17¢ |
| Fight gained by resolution | 30% / 30¢ | 29% / 29¢ |
| Fight gained by submission | 42% / 42¢ | 41% / 41¢ |
Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline
Fatima Kline is a decisive 81¢ favourite on each platforms over Tabatha Ricci, with the strawweight matchup pricing as one of many extra lopsided bouts on the principle card. Ricci hasn’t misplaced by end contained in the UFC since June 2021, and her three prior losses have all gone to resolution, which traces up with the market’s heavy lean towards a choice end result (74¢ on each books) somewhat than a end for both facet.
Kline’s grappling quantity (2.51 takedowns per quarter-hour) makes the submission market on Kalshi (31¢) price watching if the battle hits the mat early.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 20% / 20¢ | 21% / 21¢ |
| Fatima Kline | 81% / 81¢ | 81% / 81¢ |
| Tabatha Ricci by KO/TKO | 7% / 7¢ | 4% / 4¢ |
| Fatima Kline by KO/TKO | 17% / 17¢ | 17% / 17¢ |
| Fight gained by resolution | 74% / 74¢ | 74% / 74¢ |
| Fight gained by submission | 15% / 15¢ | 31% / 31¢ |
Tommy McMillen vs. Alberto Montes
Tommy McMillen is favored at 61¢ on each platforms over Alberto Montes, although Kalshi’s Montes worth (30¢) trails Polymarket’s extra beneficiant 40¢, making a uncommon break up between the books on this featherweight bout. The submission market is the standout quantity right here, sitting at a lofty 55¢ on Polymarket and 46¢ on Kalshi, which tells merchants this battle is extra more likely to finish on the canvas than standing.
McMillen’s unbeaten 10-0 file backs up the market’s confidence, however the hole between platforms on Montes’ win chance suggests some disagreement on simply how reside the underdog actually is.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy McMillen | 61% / 61¢ | 31% / 31¢ |
| Alberto Montes | 40% / 40¢ | 30% / 30¢ |
| Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO | 27% / 27¢ | 27% / 27¢ |
| Alberto Montes by KO/TKO | 10% / 10¢ | 9% / 9¢ |
| Fight gained by resolution | 27% / 27¢ | 24% / 24¢ |
| Fight gained by submission | 55% / 55¢ | 46% / 46¢ |
Prelims and Early Prelims: What to Watch
The seven-fight preliminary card is loaded with prospects price monitoring as soon as the principle card wraps, and the undercard leans closely on lighter weight lessons.
The marquee attraction of the prelims is Austin Bashi (14-1) taking over Jose Miguel Delgado (11-2) in a featherweight bout between two fighters with actual ending instincts, making it the pure centerpiece of the undercard. Right behind it, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (10-2) meets Seok Hyeon Ko (13-2) in a welterweight conflict that pairs contrasting types and figures to attract loads of live-line motion because the battle unfolds.
Further down the cardboard, an intriguing prospect matchup sees unbeaten Levi Rodrigues (5-0) step up in opposition to the extra skilled Felipe Franco (10-2) at gentle heavyweight, a check of youth and momentum in opposition to a veteran making an attempt to spoil the celebration. Alden Coria (12-3) and Stewart Nicoll (8-3) spherical out the flyweight motion in a bout between two fighters every seeking to string collectively wins and climb towards the rankings.
For followers who like their fights quick and violent, RJ Harris and Alvin Hines (7-1) carry pure heavyweight energy to the early card, the form of matchup the place a single clear shot can finish issues in seconds. Opening the evening, Anna Melisano (6-1) faces Dione Barbosa (9-4) in a strawweight bout that might set an early tone and give bettors a primary learn on how the world and judges are trending earlier than the principle card will get underway.
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