Jamie Dimon Won’t Buy S&P 500 or Bonds. Here Are the Warnings Investors Are Missing
Jamie Dimon needs to be pleased with how the US market is doing after reporting JPMorgan’s greatest quarter ever. However, he says he received’t contact the S&P 500 or long-dated bonds at at this time’s costs.
The JPMorgan Chase chief government laid out a number of warnings on The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost. His feedback got here days after posting the largest quarterly revenue in US banking historical past.
Four Warnings From the Top of Wall Street
Throughout the podcast, Frost quizzed the CEO on his stance throughout shares and bonds, with Dimon issuing some telling warnings for common buyers.
On the S&P 500 particularly, Frost requested whether or not Dimon was a purchaser at present ranges. Dimon dodged the index and mentioned he trades title by title, not the market as an entire. He confirmed he has not purchased any equities lately, and when Frost requested if markets are pricing in an ideal end result, Dimon mentioned the situation seems good, however not excellent.
Together, these solutions level to a CEO who sees little room for error at at this time’s costs, with out an S&P 500 purchaser in JPMorgan’s personal chief government.
Frost then requested instantly whether or not Dimon would purchase long-dated authorities bonds. Dimon didn’t hedge.
“Personally, no. I’d not be a purchaser.”
Dimon pointed to rates of interest as the purpose for not going with bonds. Even if inflation cooled to 2%, he mentioned, the 10-year Treasury yield ought to sit close to 4% to 4.5%. Short-term charges needs to be close to 3.25% to three.5%, he added, and markets are already near these ranges. That leaves little upside left to purchase for, in his view.
Dimon additionally tied bond threat to swelling authorities deficits. He recalled how US inflation climbed from 3.5% to 11% by way of the Nineteen Seventies, a stretch when deficits additionally constructed up. He pointed to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s name to scrutinize how inflation knowledge will get calculated. Warsh’s personal Fed rate hike odds turned sharply hawkish in June.
Finally, Dimon flagged a wider set of risks. These embody the conflict in Ukraine, rigidity with Iran, rising navy spending worldwide, and the US-China relationship. He likened them to tectonic plates that would shift and mix unexpectedly.
“Those dangers are most likely larger than different individuals assume.”
Dimon acknowledged, nevertheless, that none of those threats would possibly flip into an precise disaster. He mentioned the international economic system has grown extra resilient and fewer energy-dependent. He pointed to how markets absorbed the Iran war oil shock earlier this 12 months. Still, resilience doesn’t take away the likelihood of a sudden tipping level, he cautioned.
Record Profits, Cautious Words
JPMorgan posted web revenue of $21.2 billion in the second quarter of 2026, up 41% from a 12 months earlier. It marks the highest quarterly revenue any US financial institution has ever reported.
Equity buying and selling income jumped 86% 12 months over 12 months to $6 billion. That helped drive a record bank earnings season throughout all 5 of the largest US lenders.
Dimon known as the atmosphere practically excellent for banks. He cited heavy buying and selling volumes and elevated asset costs, however nonetheless mentioned the run is not going to final perpetually.
Dimon’s skepticism echoes different market voices this 12 months.
Peter Schiff has argued the subsequent bond market crash warning may begin in Treasurys somewhat than Bitcoin (BTC). JPMorgan’s personal chief government is stepping again from shares and bonds close to file highs.
That raises a query for threat belongings broadly, crypto included. Will Wall Street’s warning finally meet up with the value motion?
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