Relief Rally or Bull Trap? Why This Analyst Says XRP Is Heading Below $1
A chart analyst is warning that XRP’s current bounce could also be giving merchants false confidence and has argued that the token remains to be in a long-term downtrend regardless of recovering from its current lows.
His view challenges a rising group of merchants calling for a breakout, with the subsequent few weeks prone to decide whether or not the world’s sixth-largest cryptocurrency can construct a stronger base or slip under $1.
Weekly Chart Still Points to Resistance
In a sequence of posts on X, XRP watcher ChartNerd mentioned that merchants ought to proceed respecting the asset’s long-term development somewhat than assuming a small restoration has modified the market construction.
He pointed out that bears have been in management since a 20-week and 50-week exponential shifting common (EMA) loss of life cross fashioned in January 2026. Further, he argued {that a} aid in May that stalled on the 20-week EMA earlier than XRP fell from about $1.35 to close $1.00 confirmed that the shifting common remains to be performing as resistance.
According to him, even when XRP rallies towards $1.29 or as high as $1.60, individuals ought to deal with these ranges as heavy resistance until the value can transfer above them convincingly. The analyst added that in case the Ripple token hits $1.60 in late July or early August, it might strengthen the case that the current transfer close to $1.00 marked a neighborhood backside.
However, if the asset doesn’t attain the 20-week EMA round $1.29 or will get rejected there, then “the drop under $1 may come before anticipated.”
ChartNerd additionally pushed again in opposition to claims circulating on social media that XRP has already damaged out of its downtrend relationship again to July 2025. Responding to a bullish publish from pseudonymous analyst Bird, who steered that an explosive candle was due at any second, he wrote that XRP was nonetheless inside its wedge sample and under descending resistance.
He was equally dismissive of merchants celebrating the asset’s newest transfer up and sarcastically questioned whether or not such a modest rise meant that XRP was now heading “vertical to $100 earlier than EOY.” In one other publish, the market watcher argued that lots of the accounts calling for a breakout at this time had made virtually the identical predictions when the token was buying and selling round $2.40 in January, earlier than the value finally dropped to $1.00.
Mixed Signals Continue for XRP
XRP was buying and selling at round $1.13 on the time of writing, up practically 4% within the final 24 hours. It has additionally gained virtually 6% over the previous week however remains to be about 2% decrease than the place it was a month in the past.
According to information from CoinGecko, the coin’s newest buying and selling vary has been between $1.08 and $1.14, exhibiting that the value has but to interrupt decisively in both course.
ChartNerd believes the charts are telling a easy story, which is that till XRP breaks above resistance ranges which have contained the marketplace for months, any rally must be checked out with warning somewhat than handled as affirmation that the downtrend has ended.
Still, there are fairly a number of beating the bullish drum, together with EGRAG CRYPTO, who lately claimed that the asset may finally transfer towards a $1 trillion market cap if historic patterns repeat. However, such a transfer would want a lot stronger market situations and much higher investor demand than exists at the moment.
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