Don’t Be Fooled: Why Exchange Shutdowns Might Not Mean Bitcoin Has Bottomed

The crypto market is as soon as once more stuffed with hypothesis over whether or not Bitcoin has reached its cycle backside. Recent alternate shutdowns have been fueling a well-liked narrative that such failures are an indication of a market turning level.

Crypto analyst Joao Wedson, nevertheless, stated the information doesn’t assist that conclusion.

Debunking Popular BTC Bottom Theory

Wedson said solely 9 crypto exchanges and buying and selling platforms have introduced or accomplished shutdowns thus far in 2026. This makes it the bottom annual whole recorded in not less than eight years and considerably under the quantity seen in the course of the earlier market cycle. According to the Alphractal founder, this immediately contradicts claims that the current closures level to a serious Bitcoin backside.

“This is precisely why information issues. Data helps get rid of narratives, unsupported conclusions, and assumptions which can be repeatedly introduced as information by market analysts.”

Wedson’s feedback got here as a number of high-profile buying and selling platforms, together with BitMEX, AscendEX, and BitMart, announced plans to wind down operations in current weeks. The closures have gone past a handful of well-known exchanges. Odos will finish its operations on July 30, whereas Dango, often called the “Endgame Exchange,” is about to discontinue its Layer 1 blockchain on August 13.

In a separate improvement, decentralized cloud storage firm Storj Labs voluntarily sought Chapter 11 chapter safety within the US Bankruptcy Court. These developments have prompted some market members to argue that the closures resemble situations sometimes seen close to the tip of a bear market.

Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, as an example, said such occasions are likely to occur on the backside of a market cycle. Moonrock Capital founder Simon Dedi described the shutdown of centralized exchanges as a bullish signal, whereas arguing that weaker enterprise fashions fail throughout a bear market and go away room for a more healthy market. Ivan Liljeqvist, higher often called Ivan on Tech, additionally tweeted, “previous has to die for brand spanking new to develop.”

Back when FTX collapsed in 2022, Bitcoin fell to roughly $16,000, which ended up dragging your entire market decrease. In distinction, the current bulletins have had little influence on value motion because it trades close to $63,500.

Debate Continues

The market stays divided. But Grayscale is amongst these believing that the underside could already be in. The asset supervisor not too long ago said that Bitcoin has matured past the standard four-year cycle and is now influenced extra by macroeconomic elements akin to financial development, actual rates of interest, and expectations surrounding US Federal Reserve coverage.

Meanwhile, analysts together with Doctor Profit and Ali Martinez believe the present market presents a sexy accumulation alternative. Doctor Profit has repeatedly pointed to the $54,000-$64,000 vary as a traditionally robust shopping for zone, whereas emphasizing that constructing a median entry is extra vital than catching the precise backside.

Martinez additionally echoed the bullish accumulation view after figuring out that Bitcoin’s Sharpe ratio has fallen to ranges that beforehand coincided with vendor exhaustion and the ultimate levels of previous bear markets.

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