Dollar Index Trapped at 100 as Hawkish Fed Meets Official Selling
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades close to 100.02 on Tuesday after final week’s sharp rejection from 101.50. The buck is battling to reclaim the psychological 100 mark, in accordance with Trading Economics information.
Markets worth roughly 55% odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike. At the identical time, coordinated foreign money intervention and falling oil costs pull the index in the other way.
Fed Hike Bets Collide With Yen Intervention
Fundamentals have turned dollar-friendly on the financial coverage facet. July’s ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) jumped to 55.6, its strongest studying since May 2022.
Three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members additionally dissented in favor of a hike in July, when charges held at 3.50% to three.75%. Prediction market Kalshi costs a 25-basis-point September hike at 53%, with CME FedWatch displaying related odds.
However, official stress works in opposition to the greenback. The US and Japan confirmed coordinated yen intervention after USD/JPY weakened to 40-year lows close to 164.
Falling power costs add to the bearish facet. Oil dropped round 5% on Monday after Washington and Tehran agreed to restart talks, easing inflation stress.
Dollar course additionally issues past foreign exchange. A firmer buck has repeatedly pressured gold and Bitcoin (BTC) in 2026.
US Dollar Index Weekly Chart Shows the Rally Stalling Below 102
The weekly chart frames the transfer inside a large macro vary. DXY topped at 110.176 in January 2025 and bottomed at 95.551 on January 27, 2026.
The restoration from that low stalled in July close to 101.50. That space holds the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 101.14, slightly below the May 2025 swing high at 101.977.
Last week, sellers pushed the index again under the 100.30 to 100.60 resistance zone. The drop ended at an ascending trendline that connects to the January low.
Meanwhile, the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits close to 50. The studying provides neither bulls nor bears a transparent momentum edge.
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| 101.98 | May 2025 swing high, important upside goal |
| 101.14 | 0.382 Fibonacci retracement |
| 100.30 to 100.60 | Resistance zone that should flip into assist |
| 99.49 | Trendline and June swing low confluence |
| 99.00 | 0.236 Fibonacci retracement |
DXY Price Prediction Rests on the 99.49 Support Confluence
The every day chart strengthens the bullish construction argument. An ascending trendline from the February low has now held twice, on May 6 and once more on August 3.
The newest bounce additionally coincided with the June 17 swing low at 99.491. That confluence makes 99.49 a very powerful assist on the chart.
Momentum tells a special story. Daily RSI reads 38, under the impartial zone however not but oversold. The studying suggests sellers nonetheless management short-term momentum regardless of the intact development.
A every day shut above 100.60 may open the trail to 101.14 after which 101.977, roughly 2% above the present worth. In distinction, dropping 99.49 would expose the 0.236 Fibonacci degree at 99.008, about 1% decrease.
The calendar may resolve the combat. ISM Services PMI lands on Wednesday, and the July jobs report follows on Friday, August 7. The Fed’s data-dependent stance provides weight to every launch after final week’s GDP and PCE inflation information.
Until both facet wins the battle for 100, DXY stays trapped between hawkish Fed pricing and official promoting stress.
The submit Dollar Index Trapped at 100 as Hawkish Fed Meets Official Selling appeared first on BeInCrypto.
