NFL Week 1 Odds and Predictions: Kalshi vs. Polymarket

NFL Week 1 prediction market odds proceed to fluctuate as we enter preseason video games, with kickoff scheduled for Wednesday, Sept. 9. It’s a giant recreation rematch of Patriots vs. Seahawks at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. NFL futures markets stay extremely energetic at main platforms, with quantity on Kalshi already transferring previous week 1 of final yr.

Week 1 opens with a number of the NFL’s largest rivalries already on the board. The Cowboys and Giants renew their NFC East battle beneath the Sunday night time lights, the 49ers and Rams kick off the season in Australia, and the Bills and Texans are separated by simply two share factors in early buying and selling. Below, we examine opening odds from Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel, and DraftKings for each Week 1 matchup.

NFL Week 1 odds and prediction markets

Kalshi launched Week 1 odds on May 16. Probabilities are up to date weekly as quantity grows with hyperlinks to dwell odds feeds for every particular person recreation. Polymarket odds stay TBD and shall be up to date as markets open.

Week 1 game-by-game breakdown

Wednesday, Sept. 9

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA | Wednesday, Sept. 9 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock

The Super Bowl LX rematch kicks off the 2026 season in what marks simply the second time in 75 years the NFL has opened on a Wednesday. Seattle is favored, reflecting each the house subject benefit and the perceived hole between the 2 groups. The storyline right here is whether or not Drake Maye and firm have closed the hole since February’s 29-13 defeat.

Thursday Night Football, Sept. 10

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams | Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, Australia | 8:35 p.m. ET | Netflix

The NFL’s first-ever recreation in Australia is among the tightest on the Week 1 slate by pricing. The Rams enter as a modest favourite. They’re presently favored in Super Bowl odds on Kalshi, and second behind the Seahawks at Polymarket. Both groups enter with real NFC West title ambitions and official Super Bowl circumstances, making this a must-see matchup.

Sunday, Sept. 13 – 1 p.m. ET video games

New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | Ford Field, Detroit, MI | 1 p.m. ET | Fox

Detroit opens as one of many heaviest favorites of Week 1. They’re favored to win the NFC North this season and broadly anticipated to rebound from final season’s fourth-place end. New Orleans arrives as a 1% Super Bowl contender on Kalshi. Pricing suggests this is among the clearest mismatches on the opening slate.

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC | 1 p.m. ET | Fox

Chicago opens as a slight street favourite, with Carolina aiming to show final season’s NFC South crown wasn’t a fluke. The Bears are at 23% to win the NFC North on Kalshi. A clear Week 1 win on the street could be a powerful early assertion in what shapes up as a genuinely aggressive division race with Detroit and Green Bay.

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX | 1 p.m. ET | CBS

The tightest line of the early Sunday window, with Buffalo put in as a slight favourite. The Bills enter because the AFC East’s best choice at 58% on Kalshi. Houston is favored at 39% to win the AFC South. A Bills loss right here would instantly tighten the AFC East market, whereas a Texans victory might spike their division and convention pricing. 

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN | 1 p.m. ET | CBS

Baltimore opens as a street favourite in opposition to a Colts staff nonetheless ready on Daniel Jones to return from an Achilles tear. The Ravens lead the AFC North at 47% on Kalshi, probably the most dominant divisional place within the convention. Indianapolis is at 16% to win the AFC South at Polymarket, behind the Texans and Jaguars. 

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA | 1 p.m. ET | Fox

Pittsburgh is favored to get the house win, however heads to opening week with questions. The Steelers’ quarterback state of affairs stays unresolved. Aaron Rodgers continues to be unsigned, contributing to the road discrepancy between books. Atlanta checks in at 21% to win the NFC South on Kalshi, final among the many 4 groups. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH | 1 p.m. ET | Fox

Cincinnati opens as the house favourite and seems to be to bounce again from a 6-11 end. The Bengals sit at 32% to win the AFC North on Kalshi, second solely to Baltimore’s 47%. A robust Week 1 efficiency at residence in opposition to Tampa Bay could be an early sign that higher days might be on the best way for Cincinnati and probably tighten division pricing.

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN | 1 p.m. ET

Tennessee opens as the favourite as they welcome a New York staff that has a number of inquiries to reply following a 3-14 marketing campaign. The Titans are at simply 8% to win the AFC South on Kalshi, with the Jets at 5% to win the AFC East contender at 5%. Both franchises enter 2026 with low expectations and one thing to show early.

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL | 1 p.m. ET | CBS

Jacksonville opens as one of many largest favorites of the week. They gained the AFC South a season in the past, whereas Cleveland completed within the basement of the AFC North. The Jaguars, at 33% to win the AFC South on Kalshi, are well-positioned to make a division title run. A dominant Week 1 residence win might assist set the tone, whereas a tighter recreation might influence expectations. 

Sunday, Sept. 13 – Late video games

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA | 4:25 p.m. ET | Fox

Kalshi has the NFC East as a lifeless warmth between Dallas and Philadelphia at 35% every, with Washington at 17%. The recreation is being priced as a transparent Eagles benefit in Week 1. A Commanders win right here would shift the division market, a race the prediction markets are already pricing as one to observe.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS

Kalshi has Green Bay at 30% and Minnesota at 20% to win the NFC North. Detroit (33%) and Chicago (23%) within the combine make this one of the crucial aggressive chases on the board. Neither staff can afford an early stumble in what shapes up as one of many extra compelling matchups of the late Sunday window for Week 1.

Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV | 4:25 p.m. ET

Las Vegas opens as a house favourite in opposition to a Dolphins staff Kalshi views because the AFC East’s largest longshot at 4%. Miami’s worst regular-season file odds of 31% on Kalshi make this a recreation the Raiders, at 8% to win the AFC West, genuinely must win early to ascertain any credibility in a division the place three groups are bunched inside 4 factors on the high.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS

The most lopsided line of Week 1 by a major margin. The Chargers, at 34% to win the AFC West, open as heavy favorites in a recreation that ought to do little to maneuver any market. The Cardinals, at 1% Super Bowl odds on Kalshi and 28% worst file odds, seem like headed into the clearest mismatch on the slate.

Sunday Night Football, Sept. 13 

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ | 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC (SNF)

Dallas opens as a street favourite for this divisional primetime showdown. The NFC East race is a digital lifeless warmth on Kalshi, with each Dallas and Philadelphia at 35% to win the division. The Giants are getting some market respect at 17%, up 4 factors lately on Kalshi, beneath new head coach John Harbaugh. SNF is ready to be a marquee recreation of the opening slate.

Monday Night Football, Sept. 14

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO | 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC (MNF)

Kansas City opens as a house favourite in probably the most strategically vital recreation of Week 1 from a division market standpoint. Kalshi has the AFC West because the tightest division race in soccer: Chargers 34%, Chiefs 32%, Broncos 30%. Patrick Mahomes’ availability is the central query. All indicators level to him taking part in, however his restoration stays one of many offseason’s defining subplots.

NFL prediction market panorama getting into the preseason

The NFL preseason opens on Thursday, August 9, with Panthers vs. Cardinals within the Hall of Fame Game at 8 p.m. ET on NBC. Here is the place the important thing markets stand as we get set for the return of soccer.

NFL futures at prediction markets

The Los Angeles Rams are the consensus Super Bowl favorites, buying and selling at 16% on Kalshi and 15% on Polymarket. Behind them is a aggressive chase for second place. The Bills, Ravens, Chiefs, and defending champion Seahawks are all jockeying for place, with costs transferring between 6-8%.

On the convention aspect, the Rams are favored by a large margin, with the Seahawks and Eagles priced as the largest threats. Over within the AFC, chances are a lot tighter, with the Bills presently barely forward of the Ravens, Chiefs, and Chargers.

Division markets level to a number of compelling storylines. The AFC West is the tightest race on the board at Kalshi, with three groups buying and selling inside 4 factors of one another: Chargers 34%, Chiefs 32%, Broncos 30%.

For the NFL MVP award, each platforms have it priced as a good chase. Josh Allen (11%) is true forward of Joe Burrow (10%) in present pricing on Kalshi. On Polymarket, it’s Allen at 13%, forward of Lamar Jackson at 11%.

NFL prediction market buying and selling quantity

Kalshi’s Super Bowl LXI market has logged over $52.8 million in buying and selling quantity earlier than a single recreation has been performed. The determine speaks to the rising position prediction markets are taking part in in how NFL followers have interaction with the league in the course of the offseason. 

Polymarket’s Super Bowl market sits at $42.6 million in quantity over the identical interval. Combined, the 2 platforms have seen greater than $85 million traded on Super Bowl futures alone, with division and convention markets including tens of tens of millions extra. 

That quantity will climb steadily via coaching camp, the preseason, and into the common season as much more markets open and weekly buying and selling exercise accelerates.

Notable Week 1 line strikes

Prices proceed to maneuver for Bills vs. Texans, which has the potential to be one among Week 1’s best showdowns. At the preliminary launch, Houston was a slight favourite. It’s now listed as near a coin flip, with Buffalo on high.

Probabilities have widened on the 49ers vs. Rams because the low season strikes alongside. Los Angeles opened as a fairly sizable favourite, however the unfold widened after the membership swung a blockbuster deal to convey Myles Garrett to city.

As the preseason strikes alongside, there shall be elevated buying and selling quantity on all the Week 1 matchups. The information cycle strikes quickly all through August, and notable developments are inclined to translate into value strikes.

What to anticipate for NFL prediction markets this season

The 2026 season represents one other vital step within the development of NFL prediction market buying and selling. For merchants, the sensible implication is that the NFL is now not only a sportsbook sport. It is a completely functioning prediction market ecosystem with actual liquidity, regulated infrastructure, and a rising suite of contracts that can broaden because the season progresses. 

Trading will stay energetic all through the offseason, with quantity and pricing sharpening as kickoff approaches. The Super Bowl market, already previous $85 million in mixed quantity, will proceed to draw vital buying and selling exercise via each week of the common season and into the playoffs.

Related: See daily trading volume on NFL markets

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