Lumber Falls for 10 Straight Sessions as US Housing Cracks Widen
Lumber futures have fallen for 10 consecutive periods, their longest shedding streak since December 2024. The lumber worth trades close to $586 after a pointy rejection from the $650 resistance zone.
The slide issues effectively past the timber commerce. Lumber demand tracks US homebuilding nearly one to at least one, and the streak arrived whereas builder confidence sits close to multi-year lows.
Why Lumber Price Is Falling Despite a Supply Squeeze
Barchart knowledge reveals lumber has closed decrease for 10 straight days, a streak unseen since December 2024. Two weeks in the past, nevertheless, the market informed the other story.
Futures touched $650 per thousand board toes on July 28, a 12-month high. The rally had gained over 30% from December lows as provide shocks piled up.
The Wall Street Journal reported that steep duties on Canadian lumber, wildfires, and sawmill closures had minimize provide and lifted costs. More than 900 wildfires burned throughout Western Canada, the supply of most US softwood imports.
Combined duties close to 35% additionally add roughly $10,000 to the price of a brand new American house, in line with the NAHB. Nevertheless, costs collapsed the second demand weak point took over.
US development spending on single-family tasks fell 3.3% year-over-year in June, per TradingEconomics. Therefore, a market falling this difficult in opposition to a constrained provide base factors to demand destruction, not oversupply.
US Housing Market Cracks Keep Widening
The demand rot reveals up throughout housing knowledge. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) fell to 34 in July, its fifteenth straight month beneath 50. That is the longest weak stretch since 2012.
Meanwhile, 37% of builders minimize costs in July, at a median low cost of 6%. Robert Dietz, chief economist on the NAHB, described the stress immediately within the group’s July report.
“Affordability stays the house constructing trade’s major problem.”
Slower-moving knowledge confirms the pattern. The median gross sales worth of US properties peaked close to $440,000 in late 2022, in line with FRED. It has since drifted to roughly $410,000, the longest stretch of worth weak point since 2008.
Residential development absorbs an estimated 70% to 80% of North American wooden demand. Consequently, lumber acts as a real-time gauge of housing well being, and it now joins different uncommon indicators flashing late-cycle warnings. Prediction markets have already lifted US recession odds this 12 months.
Lumber Price Prediction Hinges on $580 Support
On the every day chart, lumber broke down from the $650 resistance area after repeated failures in late July. The decline additionally minimize via an ascending trendline that had supported the market since December 2025.
Lumber trades at $585.75 on the time of writing, down 0.9% on the day and urgent the $580 assist zone. If patrons defend this space, the setup could favor a aid bounce.
The every day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory at its lowest since September 2025, when a sturdy rebound adopted. However, the damaged trendline close to $590 could now act as resistance and cap any restoration.
| Level | Role |
|---|---|
| $650 | Major resistance and July rejection zone |
| $590 | Broken trendline, potential resistance |
| $580 | Immediate assist below take a look at |
| $565 | Next assist if $580 breaks |
In distinction, a decisive shut beneath $580 would expose the following assist at $565, about 3.5% decrease. That zone has stopped a number of sell-offs since late 2025.
Beyond the chart, the principle catalyst stays the Federal Reserve. Expected fee cuts may pull mortgage charges decrease and revive builder demand for wooden. A deeper housing slowdown, in the meantime, may ripple into danger property, together with crypto.
The subsequent a number of periods ought to reveal whether or not oversold situations spark a rebound or the housing warning grows louder.
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