Prediction Market Volume Rebounds Above $10 Billion as Politics Surges Ahead of NFL Season
Prediction market exercise rebounded this week after three consecutive weeks of declines. Combined comparable buying and selling quantity on Kalshi and Polymarket Global elevated 5.8% from the earlier week, reaching $10.30 billion.
Kalshi remained the clear market chief, accounting for 81.3% of mixed comparable quantity, whereas Polymarket Global posted its first weekly enhance in a month.
One pattern stood out: comparable buying and selling quantity elevated even as the quantity of recorded transactions declined. Average notional per transaction rose 8.4%, suggesting that bigger trades drove a lot of the week’s rebound.
Political buying and selling additionally jumped sharply on US-based platforms, whereas financial buying and selling on Polymarket Global dropped by greater than 90%.
| Metric | Kalshi | Polymarket Global | Polymarket US | Combined / Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comparable Notional Volume (USD) | $8,382,009,522 | $1,921,736,483 | Unavailable | $10,303,746,005 |
| WoW | +6.2% | +4.1% | N/A | +5.8% |
| Native Headline Volume | 8.07B displayed contracts | $1.92B USD notional | 846.2M DMR contracts | Non-additive |
| Native Volume WoW | -4.1% | +4.1% | -2.4% | N/A |
| Transactions | 56,509,439 | 19,087,508 | N/A | 75,596,947 |
| Open Interest (Snapshot) | $728,977,722 | $343,638,226 | 31,372,787 contracts | Non-additive |
| Active Markets | 76,756 | 133,598 | N/A | Non-additive |
Metric word: The native headline metrics aren’t additive. Kalshi’s displayed contract quantity, Polymarket Global’s USD notional and Polymarket US’s official DMR contract quantity use completely different venue-native semantics. Category quantity comparisons under use a separate DefiRate USD-notional decomposition throughout the three platforms.
Kalshi share of comparable notional quantity
Kalshi as a share of mixed Kalshi and Polymarket comparable USD notional, by week ending.
Kalshi held between 72% and 76% of the two-venue complete for 4 straight weeks, then stepped as much as 81.0% within the week ending Aug 2 and held 81.4% via Aug 9. The transfer got here from Polymarket contracting 38.8% within the Aug 2 week reasonably than from Kalshi increasing.
Source: DeFi Rate aggregation, Kalshi Trade API and Polymarket on-chain exercise · defirate.com/prediction-markets/
US political buying and selling surges forward of the following spherical of primaries
Politics was one of the most important tales of the week. Total political buying and selling throughout the three platforms reached about $105.7 million.
But the platforms moved in very completely different instructions:
- Kalshi: $33.7 million, up 118.9%
- Polymarket US: $17.9 million, up 81.0%
- Polymarket Global: $54.0 million, down 26.8%
On Kalshi, the rise was led by Michigan’s Democratic Senate major, the place Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed contracts generated about $7.5 million combined. Polymarket US exercise was extra combined: Florida Republican governor-primary contracts accounted for about $5.9 million, whereas the Clacton by-election and Michigan Senate margin markets had been additionally main contributors.
Economic prediction markets generated about $55.2 million throughout the week. Kalshi carried out nicely on this class:
- Kalshi: $47.3 million, up 10.6%
- Polymarket Global: $5.2 million, down 91.2%
- Polymarket US: $2.7 million, down 69.0%
Much of the massive drop on Polymarket Global displays the prior week’s roughly $50.1 million of exercise within the July Federal Reserve choice market, which fell out after the meeting was resolved. Once that occasion was over, a lot of the buying and selling exercise disappeared.
Sports stays dominant as NFL buying and selling begins to speed up
Sports continued to be the most important supply of buying and selling exercise throughout all three websites. Across Kalshi, Polymarket Global and Polymarket US, sports-related markets generated about $2.64 billion within the category-level USD-notional decomposition.
- Kalshi: $2.01 billion, down 9.2%
- Polymarket US: $329.3 million, down 27.6%
- Polymarket Global: $299.2 million, down 1.2%
Kalshi accounted for roughly 76% of sports activities buying and selling quantity throughout the three platforms on that foundation.
Esports and Middle East markets drive Polymarket Global exercise
Polymarket Global had a very fascinating combine of markets this week.
Markets associated to the Strait of Hormuz and tensions involving Iran attracted important consideration. The market asking whether or not Strait of Hormuz visitors would return to regular by Aug. 31 noticed its buying and selling quantity enhance 119.1%, reaching $5.37 million.
A shorter-term model of the identical query, with an Aug. 15 deadline, elevated 398.4% to $3.84 million. Another market asking whether or not the US would invade Iran earlier than 2027 generated $3.54 million in quantity.
Another main supply of exercise was esports.
Six of Polymarket Global’s 10 largest particular person markets had been esports matches.
A Dota 2 match between 1win and BetBoom Team generated $4.98 million in buying and selling quantity. Several League of Legends matches generated greater than $18 million mixed.
Baseball leads as NFL recreation markets start to take over
The US platforms had been closely targeted on sports activities, particularly baseball. Kalshi’s largest markets included particular person MLB video games.
For instance:
- White Sox vs. Red Sox: $18.73 million in quantity
- Boston vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: $12.74 million
- Several tennis markets additionally generated greater than $23.8 million mixed.
The Carolina-Arizona NFL preseason winner market generated $11.52 million; Kalshi’s broader public game-page quantity throughout each direct market connected to the matchup reached 21.18 million displayed contracts.
Polymarket US was much more targeting baseball. All 10 of its largest markets had been MLB game-winner markets. The White Sox vs. Red Sox market had 8.51 million contracts traded, whereas Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks had 6.09 million.
What the buying and selling information tells us
Combined comparable notional volume on Kalshi and Polymarket Global elevated 5.8%, however the quantity of recorded transactions fell 2.4%. Average notional per recorded transaction subsequently elevated about 8.4%, from $125.78 to $136.30. That means the rise in general comparable notional was related to larger common transaction worth, not a bigger transaction depend.
Average notional per recorded transaction
Weekly comparable notional divided by recorded transactions, in US {dollars}, for every venue and the two-venue mixed sequence.
Kalshi
Polymarket
Average transaction worth fell for 4 consecutive weeks, from $175.09 within the week ending Jul 5 to $125.78 within the week ending Aug 2, then rose 8.4% to $136.30. Both venues moved the identical path within the remaining week: Kalshi from $138.29 to $148.33 and Polymarket from $90.71 to $100.68. Polymarket’s common has recovered roughly a fifth of its four-week decline; Kalshi’s has recovered a couple of third.
Source: DeFi Rate aggregation, Kalshi Trade API and Polymarket on-chain exercise · defirate.com/prediction-markets/
Polymarket Global alone noticed its quantity of recorded transactions fall 6.2% to 19.1 million.
Polymarket US’s open positions fell from 62.88 million contracts to 31.37 million, a 50.1% decline. Expiring and settled contracts doubtless contributed, with open positions closing quicker than new open curiosity amassed throughout the week. The snapshot information doesn’t set up the complete trigger.
Polymarket Global had 133,598 energetic market information, in contrast with 76,756 on Kalshi.
The saved itemizing depend reveals extra energetic market information on Polymarket Global, though variations in contract construction and counting methodology restrict a direct breadth comparability between the 2 platforms.
Polymarket US quantity in opposition to open positions
Official Daily Market Report commerce quantity in opposition to the week-close open curiosity snapshot, each in tens of millions of contracts.
Open curiosity
Trade quantity fell 36.4% throughout the six weeks and has been near flat for the reason that week ending Jul 26, transferring from 869.5 million to 846.2 million contracts. Open positions fell 66.6% over the identical interval, from 94.1 million to 31.4 million contracts, with greater than half the decline touchdown within the remaining week. Weekly turnover subsequently ran at roughly 27 instances the closing open curiosity by Aug 9, in opposition to 14 instances in early July.
Source: Official Polymarket US Daily Market Reports · defirate.com/prediction-markets/
What to look at this week
As the NFL preseason continues, early indicators recommend exercise is constructing a lot quicker than it did a yr in the past. Kalshi’s direct game-winner basket had already reached roughly 394,000 contracts by Aug. 4, about 7.2 instances the comparable level final season.
The Carolina-Arizona opener then confirmed what occurs when live-game boards exchange preseason futures as the middle of exercise. Kalshi’s broader recreation winner market reached $21.18 million, whereas Polymarket Global added about $409,000 in event-level USDC notional and Polymarket US reported 3.40 million contracts.
Growth via the NFL season is not going to look the identical on each platform. About 74% of tracked Kalshi NFL quantity was already tied to recreation markets, in contrast with solely about 4% on Polymarket Global, the place roughly 96% remained in futures. That factors to a probable subsequent part through which Kalshi and Polymarket US speed up as extra stay matchup markets open, whereas Polymarket Global might stay extra futures-driven till recreation liquidity deepens.
The subsequent query is whether or not final week’s US-platform surge was a one-event spike or the beginning of a broader primary-season construct. Michigan was an essential driver, however the pipeline just isn’t empty: upcoming Wisconsin, Minnesota and South Carolina contests on Aug. 11 and Florida primaries on Aug. 18 give merchants one other sequence of scheduled occasions.
The clearest signal of sustained progress can be quantity rotating shortly from resolved Michigan markets into these upcoming contests. If that occurs, political quantity might stay elevated; if not, final week’s bounce might show short-term.
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