Prediction Markets Nail Minnesota Primaries, Backing Flanagan And Tafoya In A Progressive Wave Test

Prediction markets accurately traded on the highest Minnesota primaries proper Tuesday evening, accurately calling Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s Senate win, former sports activities broadcaster Michele Tafoya’s Republican nomination and each gubernatorial nominees. 

It was a robust restoration after prediction markets’ uneven Wisconsin efficiency, the place markets were overly confident in progressive Democratic State Rep. Francesca Hong in her bid for governor and watched her lose in a nail-biter.

Traders accurately predicted each events’ Senate and governor nominations. 

Flanagan’s win was additionally one other information level for the Democratic Party’s progressive wing. She beat centrist U.S. Rep. Angie Craig in a race that had tightened in late polling, extending a string of insurgent-progressive primary wins after Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed.

Markets backed Flanagan

Ahead of the primary, Flanagan traded at 72% on each Kalshi and Polymarket regardless of a late KSTP/SurveyUSA survey displaying Craig forward 42% to 40%, inside the ballot’s 5.3-point margin of error. Kalshi drew practically $500,000 in Flanagan-market quantity, whereas Polymarket had greater than $250,000.

The merchants have been proper. Flanagan defeated Craig decisively, main by practically 20 factors with 80% of votes counted. The AP known as it the newest victory by an rebel progressive candidate over the Democratic institution, after Flanagan campaigned in opposition to company affect and promised to confront President Donald Trump.

That is the larger nationwide takeaway. Minnesota doesn’t essentially change the Senate-control map, however the end result reinforces the progressive argument that Democratic voters are rewarding candidates promising a sharper break from the occasion’s reasonable wing.

Tafoya beats Lindell

The Republican facet produced the opposite notable calls of the evening. Tafoya received the GOP Senate nomination, whereas State House Speaker Lisa Demuth beat out a subject, together with MyPillow founder Mike Lindell, for the GOP governor nomination.

Both races generated significant curiosity due to the recognizable names concerned. Kalshi and Polymarket each favored Demuth over Lindell, who had been making an attempt to show his Trump-world profile right into a statewide nomination. 

The markets have been proper once more, with Demuth profitable the GOP governor major whereas Lindell’s marketing campaign fell brief.

Those Republican contests had buying and selling attraction as a result of they have been open, aggressive nomination fights with acquainted candidates. The common election is a distinct story.

Not a Senate management race

Minnesota’s Senate seat is open as a result of Democratic Sen. Tina Smith isn’t looking for reelection, however Republicans should not being handled as critical favorites in November. Major election handicappers have rated the final election Likely Democratic.

That explains why major markets generated extra curiosity than the Flanagan-Tafoya race is prone to obtain. The identify recognition of Tafoya and Lindell, together with the Flanagan-Craig ideological showdown, created a cleaner buying and selling setup than a common election the place the Democratic nominee begins with a considerable structural benefit.

Minnesota issues politically as one other progressive-versus-moderate take a look at. It doesn’t at the moment appear to be one of many races that can resolve 2026 midterm election Senate management.

Better than Wisconsin

The prediction market outcomes additionally distinction with Wisconsin, the place prediction markets entered Tuesday with extra certainty that in the end didn’t cleanly seize the main final result. 

Minnesota’s headline markets, by comparability, held agency by means of late polling noise and accurately recognized the winners within the Democratic Senate major, Republican Senate major and each gubernatorial races.

That doesn’t imply the Minnesota calls have been easy. Flanagan’s worth meant prediction markets nonetheless assigned practically a one-in-three likelihood to Craig, and late polling had made the competition look successfully tied. But on an evening when progressive momentum once more formed the Democratic facet, merchants accurately acknowledged that Flanagan remained the favourite.

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