Gold Price Ends 6-Month Correction as Bulls Reclaim Key Trendline
Gold worth trades at $4,643.95 on Monday, a three-month high, after rallying roughly 17% off its July low. December COMEX futures topped $4,700 for the primary time in additional than three months.
The transfer closes out a correction that began on the January report of $5,598 and ran about 26 weeks. Both the weekly and every day charts now present that the downtrend has been damaged.
The rally accelerated final week after US federal debt crossed $40 trillion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent then doubled debt buyback operations, and the greenback index slipped under 100. Central banks added to the bid with 289 tonnes of purchases within the second quarter, up 62% yr over yr.
Weekly Chart Reclaims the 20-Week Moving Average
On the weekly chart, the correction bottomed at $3,942.92. That degree matches the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the advance that started in 2024. It additionally sits contained in the $3,900 to $4,000 assist zone.
Gold slipped below $4,000 throughout that take a look at. Yet weekly RSI bottomed close to 40 and by no means reached oversold territory under 30. That habits suggests a correction inside a bull pattern somewhat than a reversal.
Measured from the January high, the decline reached roughly 29% over about 26 weeks.
The week ending August 21 modified the construction. Gold closed above its 20-week shifting common for the primary time since April. The identical candle closed above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $4,333.52.
That retracement sits contained in the $4,300 to $4,400 zone, which capped the value from November 2025 via May 2026. Clearing a Fibonacci degree and a six-month provide zone collectively strengthens the sign.
Weekly RSI now reads close to 60. Therefore, momentum nonetheless has room earlier than it seems stretched.
Gold Price Levels to Watch as Daily RSI Tops 70
The every day chart exhibits the set off. Gold broke a descending trendline drawn from the January 28 report in early August close to $4,100. Price has climbed about 13% since that break.
The advance then paused contained in the $4,300 to $4,400 zone between August 6 and August 19. That consolidation signifies absorption somewhat than an exhausted transfer.
Daily RSI now reads 71.7, its first print above 70 since January. Weekly RSI at 60 tells a unique story. In distinction to the every day image, the medium-term chart nonetheless has headroom.
That mixture favors a pause earlier than the following resistance somewhat than a right away rejection.
Resistance begins at $4,700, then the $4,750 to $4,800 band, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at $4,816.80. Above that, the measured transfer from the $3,900 base tasks towards $4,900.
Goldman Sachs holds the identical $4,900 year-end goal, reduce from $5,400 in June. The financial institution additionally flagged $4,400 as a draw back case if the Federal Reserve raises charges as a substitute.
Support now begins at $4,500. A weekly shut again under $4,300 would invalidate the breakout. A return to $3,900 would finish the bullish case.
Gold nonetheless trades about 17% under its report. Friday’s weekly shut will verify or reject the reclaim, and it lands on the identical day Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole handle.
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