2026 AI Market Claims Vs SEC Fillings: Linkmate Analysis
Is the AI market actually all simply PR speak or there’s a deeper math occurring within the background? Check this market evaluation from AI software program firm Linkmate (prev. Linkomo), to seek out out.
The Loan Math behind AI Hype
According to the State of the Agentic Market, the AI use comes by means of ultimate maturity levels. In fundamental phrases it means the market stops treating AI like a magical silver bullet and begins to make use of it as an precise instrument to resolve fundamental enterprise issues.
The main narrative is that AI is a disruptor within the job market, however it’s a scapegoat. A significant motive for the downturn of the job market is the mixture of COVID loans and FED hikes.
In 2019 main tech companies woke as much as the brand new actuality — why pay for 4 workplace flooring in NY or Silicon Valley, once they don’t must? This introduced up the primary means of cost-cutting. The lockdown disaster additionally led to a rise within the company loans, which implies that firms began to mortgage more cash at a decreased fee.
Between 2019 and 2020 Federal Reserve fee reached 0.05%, making loans cheaper than ever earlier than in additional than 70 years. According to official Federal Reserve statements and information from FRED the company loans in 2020 have been 0.25%, which roughly meant that each greenback of mortgage was value solely 0.25 cents; not 25 cents, 0.25 cents.
Linkmate evaluation means that company loans weren’t taken carefully because it often occurs. Usually, throughout important instances, firms take out small loans and repay them again shortly. But this wasn’t the case: below a span of some years, complete company loans grew from modest $2T to $3.1T within the first half of 2020. Since then, in 2022 this quantity decreased solely by $0.6T (or $600B) to $2.4T, just for them to leap once more and proceed its development.
During each market cycle firms discovered a technique to make extra earnings and escape the mortgage strain. During 2023 OpenAI got here up with the straightforward thought — a big language mannequin, interactive chatbot that may reply questions dynamically. According to Linkmate analytics, this strategy gave buyers false hope that they cannot solely substitute some prices, however lower important chunks of the workforce to avoid wasting on cost enrolls and really get earnings.
This revelation made buyers overly assured, so mass layoffs in high tech companies adopted: Oracle, Google, Amazon, Payoneer, Intel, HP, Meta, Fiverr, xAI, Salesforce, CISCO, Peloton. TechCrunch revealed a full listing for 2025. As per Linkmate analytics, yearly since 2023 grew in layoffs numbers, confirming concept of being on the peak of the Gartner’s Hype Cycle for the AI market.
Where is AI in Gartner’s Hype Cycle? Linkmate Analysis of the real-world AI demand
Gartner’s Market Hype postulates that each know-how comes by means of levels of maturity. After reaching the height of inflated expectation, often what occurs subsequent is reevaluation of the state of affairs and sober evaluation of the market and the way know-how really applies to it.
One of the promising use-cases for AI is resolving the real-world equal of NP-complete duties. Real use-cases of AI lie in solving protein chains, discovering new cures for old diseases, pushing cancer research by a long time, saving lives by unconventional means, discovering new materials folks by no means considered, and making drugs cheaper. While not a silver bullet, AI, notably ML and LLM, can resolve duties which might be too cumbersome for typical approaches.
Once the market exits the stage of inflated expectations and disappointing sobriety, the actual use-cases begin to pop up and turn out to be well known as deliberate options to present issues.
One of the markets that the AI market goes by means of is the conclusion that individuals are nonetheless cheaper than AI. Tokenmaxxing, a development of maximizing token use, surfaced as the height of inflated expectations of AI fixing the whole lot as an alternative of people. Turns out, in actuality, the invoice for the mentioned AI tokens is far increased than the typical wage of a software program engineer.
In Microsoft’s personal phrases: “Using tech is more expensive than paying human employees”. More information surfaced from Uber, whom C-Levels publicly determined to decimate the HR division after realizing they’ve burnt by means of their AI price range in 4 months. According to the lively VP of Nvidia, AI prices “far more than humans”.
According to Goldman Sachs projections, at the current rate, we can see AI use skyrocket to 120 quadrillion tokens by 2030. Bank of America doubled-down on bullish prediction by Goldman Sachs, saying that AI spending may attain $155B by 2030
What do numbers say about AI use?
Comparing SEC filings towards public claims provides a slight image. According to Linkmate analysts, AI hype is actual and measurable in three distinct metrics:
- Average PJM Power Price Spike, or price per MW-day, have risen +833%;
- HBM Memory are being 100% sold out ahead of the market;
- Projected Hyperscalers CapEx for 2026 on AI is to be $660B.
But there’s a disconnect between promised CapEx and actual Free Cash Flow registered with SEC filings. Namely, Amazon, and Google are in unfavorable money flows, whereas Microsoft is by some means boasting constructive numbers.
One of the extra worrying patterns within the well being of the primary market participant — the OpenAI. According to PR, the projected APR milestone for 2026 is $40B, whereas real annual operational loss is at negative $20B in 2025, and projected -$14B in 2026. This discrepancy between basic metrics and disclosed information can turn out to be an issue sooner or later if the actual use-case for AI gained’t materialize.
Current market narrative means that the primary use for AI is being an assistant, studying emails and making summaries from the google search. What numbers do inform is that the demand is there, however actual utility lies elsewhere — within the realm of fixing real-world equal of NP-compete duties.
Adoption metrics are there, in addition to venture capital with at least $510B in spendings. Breaking down by business, almost 80% of global VC from Q1 2026 money went to AI startups, which is roughly $242B out of $300B.
According to finest market estimates, the AI marketplace for 2026 is valued between $375B and $0.9T, with projected CAGR of 14% to 39%.
Linkmate analytics recommend that numbers say demand is concrete and current throughout the board, however what’s missing is the provision of precise product-market-fit propositions that can be utilized in real-world situations. Fundamentally, what can occur is that within the nearest future the AI market will undergo a correction part, the place all of the weak gamers would get replaced by those that provide relevant use-case for the real-world market. Best Linkmate estimates put the doable correction part between 2027 and 2028 if no real-world widespread relevant use-case emerges.
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