Same Election Question, Two Different Odds: Predictions.io Launches Free Cross-Venue Comparison Tools
[PRESS RELEASE – Washington, United States, August 28th, 2026]
As prediction-market quantity hits document highs and regulators circle, identically worded midterm questions are buying and selling a number of factors aside relying on the venue. Predictions.io now tracks 9,700+ markets throughout Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold in a single place – with free price and odds calculators so merchants can see what a value truly prices them.
Prediction markets have by no means been greater, or extra contested. Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US collectively posted a document $50.59 billion in mixed quantity in July, with Kalshi accounting for roughly 74.5% of the entire. In the identical month, New York City opened a probe into each main venues, a Washington choose ordered Kalshi to halt most wagers within the state, and the CFTC started an inner assessment of so-called “point out markets.”
Amid that scrutiny, a less complicated query has gone largely unexamined: when two venues listing the identical query, do they agree on the reply?
Often, they don’t. On identically worded midterm markets tracked by Predictions.io, “Blue tsunami in 2026?” was priced at 44.5% on Polymarket and 36.0% on Kalshi. “Blue wave in 2026?” confirmed 82.5% towards 74.0%. Both gaps are 8.5 share factors — on questions whose wording is an identical on the 2 venues. Across a pattern of straight comparable binary markets reside on a couple of venue, the median hole was greater than 4 factors, and almost half of the pairs differed by 5 factors or extra. (Prices as of 05:08 UTC on 28 August 2026; each venues’ reside costs are proven facet by facet on Predictions.io.)
Those gaps matter to anybody quoting a single quantity. A market priced at 44.5% on one venue and 36.0% on one other doesn’t have one “market-implied chance” – it has two, and which one will get cited is unfair except the reader is informed each.
“A single venue’s value is a knowledge level. The unfold between venues is the knowledge. When the 2 greatest markets on this planet disagree by seven factors on the identical sentence, that disagreement is the story – and no person who runs a type of markets is able to report it.” mentioned spokesperson of Predictions.io
Predictions.io aggregates markets from Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold, matching equal questions throughout venues so the identical occasion may be in contrast straight. The platform at present tracks greater than 9,700 occasion pages throughout 23 classes together with US politics, economics, crypto, sport and geopolitics.
Alongside the comparability pages, Predictions.io publishes two free instruments:
● Fee Calculator — enter any commerce and see the price, whole outlay and efficient all-in value on every venue, together with Kalshi’s 0.07 × P × (1−P) taker formulation and maker low cost towards Polymarket’s zero-fee customary markets.
https://predictions.io/tools/fee-calculator
● Odds Converter — convert American, decimal and fractional odds into implied chance and prediction-market costs, and see the vig-free line.
https://predictions.io/tools/odds-converter
A direct venue comparability is on the market at https://predictions.io/evaluate/polymarket-vs-kalshi, and reside midterms markets at https://predictions.io/lobby/us-politics.
Predictions.io operates no market and takes no place in any contract. It is a knowledge and comparability service, not an change, dealer or funding adviser.
About Predictions.io
Predictions.io is an impartial aggregator of prediction markets, bringing costs from Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold right into a single view so the identical query may be in contrast throughout venues. It publishes free instruments for merchants and journalists, together with a cross-venue price calculator and odds converter.
Users can study extra about Predictions.io right here: https://predictions.io/
Predictions.io socials: https://bio.site/predictions.io
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