Sugar Price Jumps 30% in 5 Weeks to Highest Since April 2025
The sugar worth has climbed virtually 30% in 5 weeks. It reached 18.15 cents per pound on Thursday, the very best stage since April 2025.
The rally began on Aug. 3 from 13.97 cents. Three provide shocks have pushed it, whereas speculative funds have amplified the transfer.
Why the Sugar Price Is Surging
Brazilian mills have switched cane away from sugar and into ethanol. Brent crude close to $94 a barrel makes gasoline the higher payer, and the Hormuz closure retains vitality prices high. Mills entered the season lower than half-hedged, in order that they moved shortly. Center-South sugar output fell 26.3% yr over yr in June, in accordance to UNICA.
India has in the meantime turned purchaser. New Delhi banned exports in May, then allowed 1 million tonnes of duty-free uncooked imports by Oct. 31. That is its first sizeable buy because the 2017-18 season. Domestic costs hit a 16-year high, and the federal government capped bulk consumers at 15 days of inventory.
Forecasters have additionally flipped the worldwide steadiness. Green Pool initiatives a 3.2 million tonne deficit for 2026/27, whereas StoneX sees 1.7 million tonnes. Covrig Analytics and Czarnikow each anticipated surpluses in June.
Czarnikow now forecasts a second shortfall in 2027/28. A powerful El Niño provides threat to Indian and Thai cane, a risk Goldman flagged in June.
Sugar Price Technical Analysis Eyes 19.48 Cents
The weekly chart tracks a retracement of the slide from 23.38 cents. Sugar broke above the 0.236 Fibonacci stage at 15.58 cents in August, turning that band into potential help.
Price now sits on the 0.5 retracement at 18.28 cents. Thursday’s candle tagged 18.58 cents earlier than easing again, so resistance has held on the primary try.
A weekly shut above 18.28 cents would expose the 0.618 retracement at 19.48 cents. That stage coincides with the declining 200-week transferring common, which reinforces it as resistance. The 0.786 stage at 21.20 cents sits above.
On the draw back, the 0.382 retracement at 17.08 cents affords first help. A deeper correction would retest 15.58 cents.
Volume has risen sharply over the previous three weeks, which suggests conviction behind the breakout. The weekly RSI additionally sits at its highest studying since April 2023. Momentum, subsequently, favors the (*5*) bulls for now.
Managed cash held 207,100 web lengthy contracts in late August, a two-year high, after sitting web quick in May. However, crowded positioning may sharpen any reversal.
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