Ethereum Exchange Supply Falls to 15.5M ETH as On-Chain Momentum Turns Bullish
Ethereum (ETH) trade provide has fallen to roughly 15.5 million cash, the bottom studying in years. Meanwhile, MVRV momentum turned constructive in late August.
ETH trades close to $2,464 after a 0.87% decline over 24 hours. The token holds above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $2,438.85, a stage that capped rallies from March by way of May.
Ethereum Exchange Supply Drops to a Multi-Year Low
Glassnode information reveals whole ETH held throughout all exchanges at roughly 15.5 million cash. That marks a decline of about 38% from the May 2023 peak close to 25.2 million. Most of the drawdown arrived after June 2025, when balances nonetheless sat shut to 21.5 million.
However, the pattern alone has proved a weak timing software. Exchange balances fell steadily from September 2025 by way of June 2026. Over that very same window, ETH slid from about $4,850 to roughly $1,550.
Shrinking supply, subsequently, seems to be like a situation quite than a sign. It removes sellable float with out setting a route.
MVRV Momentum Turns Positive for the First Time Since November 2025
That lacking route might now have arrived. Ethereum’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio sits close to 1.05, above its 160-day transferring common at roughly 0.88.
The crossover occurred within the second half of August. It ended a destructive momentum section that ran for about 9 months from November 2025.
The transferring common has additionally stopped falling and has begun to curve larger. Historically, that shift separates sturdy regime modifications from temporary whipsaws. Still, the signals stay roughly three weeks previous.
ETH Price Prediction and the $2,438 Line That Decides It
ETH now trades at $2,464.81, down 0.87% on the day, with a market capitalization close to $300.8 billion. Price sits simply above the 0.618 retracement at $2,438.85. That zone acted as resistance from mid-March to mid-May and now seems to assist.
Volume has declined each week for the reason that late-August surge. The Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) additionally sits close to the ground of its vary. Compression of that sort often precedes growth, though it doesn’t point out route. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads about 60, cooling from roughly 80 in late August.
A sustained maintain might open the 0.5 retracement at $2,919.89, roughly 18% larger. In distinction, a lack of $2,438.85 leaves little construction till $1,980. That hole makes the present outlook unusually binary.
The two on-chain readings provide the directional lean that compression can’t. Ethereum has spent greater than a 12 months shedding trade float with out reward. The distinction now’s that valuation momentum has turned alongside it. A drop again beneath the 160-day common would take away that assist.
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