Prediction Market Volume Nears $20B as Polymarket US Takes Bigger Share

Prediction-market quantity stayed close to document ranges final week, however the progress seemed completely different this time. Kalshi nonetheless dealt with a lot of the buying and selling, whereas Polymarket US added extra new quantity than Kalshi and pushed its share of the market greater.

Across Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket International, quantity reached roughly $19.46 billion from Sept. 21-27, up 3.9% from $18.72 billion the earlier week.

Top-line efficiency notes

• Total quantity: Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket International mixed for roughly $19.46 billion, up 3.9% from $18.72 billion.

• Kalshi: Weekly quantity elevated 2.6% to a document $15.66 billion, whereas Sunday set one other every day high at $3.24 billion.

• Polymarket US: Volume jumped 21% to $2.83 billion, growing its share of the three-platform complete from 12.5% to 14.6%.

• Combination markets: Polymarket US mixture contracts generated $1.53 billion, up 44.4%, and accounted for 54.1% of all quantity on the platform.

• Football: All 10 of the week’s largest particular person Polymarket US markets have been soccer, however collectively they accounted for simply 4.4% of complete quantity.

• Bitcoin: Polymarket US Bitcoin quantity jumped from lower than $500,000 to $50.7 million, nearly solely by means of 15-minute and hourly markets.

• Polymarket International: Volume fell 13.5% from roughly $1.11 billion to $964.1 million.

Polymarket US added extra quantity than Kalshi

Polymarket US added $491.6 million in weekly quantity. Kalshi added $395.4 million.

That does not change which platform is largest. Kalshi nonetheless accounted for 80.5% of the quantity tracked right here. But it does present the place the incremental progress got here from this week.

Polymarket US elevated its share of the three-platform complete from 12.5% to 14.6%, whereas Polymarket International slipped from roughly 6% to five%.

Across all three venues, Polymarket US was chargeable for roughly two-thirds of the web weekly enhance.

Combinations pushed the expansion on Polymarket US

Combination contracts crossed an necessary line this week: they accounted for greater than half of all Polymarket US quantity.

Volume in combos elevated from $1.06 billion to $1.53 billion, up 44.4%. Their share of Polymarket US buying and selling jumped from 45.4% to 54.1%.

Take combos out and Polymarket US was nearly flat.

Of the $491.6 million the platform added this week, $471.2 million got here from mixture contracts. Everything else added solely about $20 million.

That means combos accounted for 95.9% of Polymarket US’s week-over-week progress.

The influence was giant sufficient to point out up throughout your entire prediction-market market. Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket International added a mixed $736.4 million from the earlier week. Polymarket US combos alone added $471.2 million, equal to roughly 64% of that complete enhance.

We do not but have sufficient direct information to separate these combos cleanly into NFL, faculty soccer, baseball and mixed-sport contracts, so the $1.53 billion stays separate fairly than being pushed again into particular person sports activities.

Football owned the leaderboard, not the week

All 10 of the biggest particular person Polymarket US markets have been soccer.

The Colts-Chiefs market led with $27.67 million, adopted by Giants-Rams at $23.23 million and Falcons-Packers at $16 million. College soccer took six of the remaining seven spots.

Even with soccer taking each spot within the prime 10, these markets accounted for simply 4.4% of Polymarket US quantity.

The week wasn’t being carried by a bunch of blockbuster video games.

Most of the cash was unfold a lot wider. Polymarket US did $1.53 billion together quantity, but no particular person mixture was giant sufficient to crack the general prime 10.

Football has been a serious a part of prediction-market progress because the common season began. In Week 1, tracked NFL prediction-market quantity topped $1 billion throughout the foremost venues. This week’s Polymarket US numbers look a bit completely different: soccer dominates the largest particular person markets, however mixture buying and selling dominates the platform as a complete.

Tennis traded nearly as a lot as the NFL

The NFL was the biggest identifiable sports activities class on Polymarket US at $267 million.

Tennis was proper behind it at $263.1 million.

College soccer added one other $225.6 million, whereas MLB generated $201.8 million.

Traditional sports activities classes weren’t transferring something like combos.

NFL quantity elevated 7%. College soccer gained 3.3%. Tennis was nearly flat and MLB elevated lower than 1%.

NFL and faculty soccer mixed for $492.6 million. That’s lower than one-third of the $1.53 billion traded by means of combos.

Football dominated the individual-market leaderboard. It didn’t clarify why Polymarket US grew 21%.

Bitcoin goes from $453,000 to $50.7 million

Bitcoin went from a rounding error to a $50 million class in a single week.

Polymarket US recorded solely about $453,000 in Bitcoin quantity the earlier week. Sept. 21-27 produced $50.7 million.

Almost all of it got here from shorter-duration markets.

Fifteen-minute markets alone generated about $45.7 million, or roughly 90% of all Bitcoin quantity.

No particular person Bitcoin market comes near the largest NFL video games as a result of the buying and selling is cut up throughout tons of of quick home windows. Added collectively, although, these 15-minute markets created nearly your entire class.

Bitcoin nonetheless represented just one.8% of Polymarket US quantity, however the change in product combine occurred nearly in a single day.

Every greenback of Sunday progress got here from combos — after which some

Polymarket US generated $759.8 million on Sept. 27, up from $592.2 million the earlier Sunday.

Combination quantity elevated from $298.6 million to $468.8 million.

Polymarket US grew by $167.6 million Sunday over Sunday. Combinations grew by $170.2 million.

Everything outdoors combos was really barely decrease.

Combinations additionally went from 50.4% of Sunday quantity to 61.7% in a single week.

More than half of Kalshi’s week occurred from Friday by means of Sunday

Kalshi elevated weekly quantity from $15.27 billion to $15.66 billion, including one other $395.4 million from an already monumental base.

Sunday produced $3.24 billion, setting a brand new every day high solely seven days after Sept. 20 grew to become Kalshi’s first $3 billion day. The earlier document week is roofed in Sept. 14-20 volume report.

Friday by means of Sunday generated roughly $8.60 billion, or 54.9% of Kalshi’s complete weekly quantity.

Saturday alone reached $2.90 billion earlier than Sunday’s document. The closing three days generated extra buying and selling than the primary 4 mixed.

Trade depend additionally moved greater, from 85.26 million to 88.12 million. Our Kalshi volume page tracks the venue’s every day, weekly and month-to-month buying and selling historical past.

Polymarket US rises whereas International falls

The two Polymarket venues moved in reverse instructions.

Polymarket US added $491.6 million throughout the week. Polymarket International misplaced about $150.6 million.

International quantity fell from roughly $1.11 billion to $964.1 million, down 13.5%. Its share of quantity throughout the three platforms slipped from about 6% to five%.

The out there International information does not break the decline down cleanly sufficient by class to say what induced it, so we aren’t assigning that drop to sports activities, crypto, politics or one other group of markets.

It does go away a transparent cut up: one Polymarket US simply had its strongest week on this dataset whereas the opposite dropped under $1 billion.

Kalshi and Polymarket US collectively now account for simply over 95% of the quantity tracked throughout the three platforms.

Kalshi remains to be the largest a part of that by far. But this week, Polymarket US was the place a lot of the new quantity confirmed up, and combos have been the place practically all of that progress got here from.

The quantity to observe subsequent week is not whether or not quantity crosses $20 billion. It’s whether or not combos stay above half of Polymarket US buying and selling.

DeFi Rate tracks every day, weekly and month-to-month exercise throughout the foremost venues in its prediction market volume tracker.